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A human experiment on inventory decisions under supply uncertainty

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  • Ancarani, A.
  • Di Mauro, C.
  • D'Urso, D.

Abstract

Controlled human experiments are adopted in this paper to investigate the impact of supply uncertainty on buyers' inventory management. The experiments aim at assessing the impact of one specific source of supply chain uncertainty, namely stochastic lead times, on inventory holdings and the extent of the bullwhip effect. Three experimental treatments are run within the framework of the beer game manipulating variability in demand and in lead times. Results confirm that the bullwhip effect arises in all experimental treatments and that the variance of orders is higher under stochastic lead times. Analysis of players' behaviour in the course of the game suggests that players react to higher uncertainty by holding fewer inventories, a behaviour consistent with the predictions of some psychological models of choice under ambiguity.

Suggested Citation

  • Ancarani, A. & Di Mauro, C. & D'Urso, D., 2013. "A human experiment on inventory decisions under supply uncertainty," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 61-73.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:proeco:v:142:y:2013:i:1:p:61-73
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ijpe.2012.09.001
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    2. S. Di Luozzo & A. Fronzetti Colladon & M. M. Schiraldi, 2024. "Decoding excellence: Mapping the demand for psychological traits of operations and supply chain professionals through text mining," Papers 2403.17546, arXiv.org.
    3. Liu, Weihua & Wang, Qian & Mao, Qiaomei & Wang, Shuqing & Zhu, Donglei, 2015. "A scheduling model of logistics service supply chain based on the mass customization service and uncertainty of FLSP’s operation time," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 189-215.
    4. Yang, Y. & Lin, J. & Liu, G. & Zhou, L., 2021. "The behavioural causes of bullwhip effect in supply chains: A systematic literature review," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
    5. Haeussler, Stefan & Stefan, Matthias & Schneckenreither, Manuel & Onay, Anita, 2021. "The lead time updating trap: Analyzing human behavior in capacitated supply chains," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    6. Sarkar, Sourish & Kumar, Sanjay, 2015. "A behavioral experiment on inventory management with supply chain disruption," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 169-178.
    7. Damberg, Sarah V. & Hartmann, Julia & Heese, H. Sebastian, 2022. "Does bad press help or hinder sustainable supply chain management? An empirical investigation of US-based corporations," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 249(C).
    8. Wang, Xun & Disney, Stephen M., 2016. "The bullwhip effect: Progress, trends and directions," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 250(3), pages 691-701.
    9. Qingwei Wang & Meimei Zheng & Wei Weng, 2023. "Sourcing decisions with loss aversion under yield and demand randomness," OR Spectrum: Quantitative Approaches in Management, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research e.V., vol. 45(2), pages 661-710, June.
    10. Zhao, Yingshuai & Zhao, Xiaobo, 2015. "On human decision behavior in multi-echelon inventory management," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 116-128.
    11. Zhu, Tianyuan & Balakrishnan, Jaydeep & da Silveira, Giovani J.C., 2020. "Bullwhip effect in the oil and gas supply chain: A multiple-case study," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).
    12. Weihua Liu & Yi Yang & Shuqing Wang & Enze Bai, 2017. "A scheduling model of logistics service supply chain based on the time windows of the FLSP’s operation and customer requirement," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 257(1), pages 183-206, October.
    13. Haines, Russell & Hough, Jill & Haines, Douglas, 2017. "A metacognitive perspective on decision making in supply chains: Revisiting the behavioral causes of the bullwhip effect," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 7-20.
    14. Christoph H. Glock & Eric H. Grosse & Ralf M. Elbert & Torsten Franzke, 2017. "Maverick picking: the impact of modifications in work schedules on manual order picking processes," International Journal of Production Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(21), pages 6344-6360, November.
    15. Gel, Esma S. & Salman, F. Sibel, 2022. "Dynamic ordering decisions with approximate learning of supply yield uncertainty," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    16. Castañeda, Jaime Andrés & Gonçalves, Paulo, 2018. "Ordering behavior in a newsstand experiment," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 197(C), pages 186-196.

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