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Modelling the production impacts of a widespread conversion to organic agriculture in England and Wales

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  • Smith, Laurence G.
  • Jones, Philip J.
  • Kirk, Guy J.D.
  • Pearce, Bruce D.
  • Williams, Adrian. G.

Abstract

We assess the production impacts of a 100% conversion to organic agriculture in England and Wales using a large-scale linear programming model. The model includes a range of typical farm structures, scaled up across the available land area, with the objective of maximising food production. The effects of soil and rainfall, nitrogen (N) supply/offtake and livestock feed demand are accounted for. Results reveal major reductions in wheat and barley production, whilst the production of minor cereals such as oats and rye increase. Monogastric livestock and milk production also decreased considerably, whilst beef and sheep numbers increased. Vegetable production was generally comparable to that under conventional farming. Minimising the area of fertility building leys and/or improving rates of N fixation increased the food supply from organic agriculture at the national level. The total food output, in terms of metabolisable energy, was 64% of that under conventional farming. This would necessitate substantial increases in food imports, with corresponding expansion of cultivated agricultural land overseas. Significant changes in diet and reductions in food waste would be required to offset the production impacts of a 100% conversion to organic farming.

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  • Smith, Laurence G. & Jones, Philip J. & Kirk, Guy J.D. & Pearce, Bruce D. & Williams, Adrian. G., 2018. "Modelling the production impacts of a widespread conversion to organic agriculture in England and Wales," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 391-404.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:lauspo:v:76:y:2018:i:c:p:391-404
    DOI: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2018.02.035
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Paarlberg, Robert, 2022. "The trans-Atlantic conflict over “green” farming," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    2. Senapati, Ujjal & Das, Tapan Kumar, 2024. "Delineation of potential alternative agriculture region using RS and AHP-based GIS techniques in the drought prone upper Dwarakeswer river basin, West Bengal, India," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 490(C).
    3. Gökhan Uzel & Serkan Gürlük & Esma Aslak & Feza Karaer, 2022. "Land use preferences considering resource economics: case of organic versus conventional wheat production in Turkey," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 24(12), pages 14375-14392, December.
    4. Cisilino, Federica & Bodini, Antonella & Zanoli, Agostina, 2019. "Rural development programs’ impact on environment: An ex-post evaluation of organic faming," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 454-462.
    5. Barbieri, Pietro & Starck, Thomas & Voisin, Anne-Sophie & Nesme, Thomas, 2023. "Biological nitrogen fixation of legumes crops under organic farming as driven by cropping management: A review," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    6. Nesar Ahmed & Shirley Thompson & Giovanni M. Turchini, 2020. "Organic aquaculture productivity, environmental sustainability, and food security: insights from organic agriculture," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 12(6), pages 1253-1267, December.
    7. Westaway, Sally & Żyłowski, Tomasz & Hardiman, Sam & Smith, Laurence G., 2024. "Integrating sustainability assessment tools with life cycle analysis for agroecological systems: A UK case study," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    8. Sadowski, Arkadiusz & Wojcieszak-Zbierska, Monika & Zmyślona, Jagoda, 2021. "Economic Situation of Organic Farms in Poland on the Background of the European Union," Problems of Agricultural Economics / Zagadnienia Ekonomiki Rolnej 319699, Institute of Agricultural and Food Economics - National Research Institute (IAFE-NRI).

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