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The Effects of Unemployment on Fertility: Evidence from England

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  • Aksoy Cevat Giray

    (Department of Economics, Royal Holloway University of London, Egham, London TW20 0EX, UK)

Abstract

This paper reinvestigates the causal effects of local unemployment on fertility. It argues that contradicting results in the existing empirical research may have arisen due to a neglect of sub-demographic differences and failure to recognize endogeneity. It hypothesizes that male and female unemployment will have different impacts on fertility across subgroups of the population. Drawing on the UK Labor Force Survey and the Birth Statistics data from the Office for National Statistics, the results of this study suggest that female unemployment tends to increase births, whereas male unemployment has the opposite effect. More importantly, the reported results indicate the unemployment and fertility relation exhibits strong variation across demographic subgroups. Lastly, a persistent countercyclical fertility pattern is also documented at the county level.

Suggested Citation

  • Aksoy Cevat Giray, 2016. "The Effects of Unemployment on Fertility: Evidence from England," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 16(2), pages 1123-1146, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:bejeap:v:16:y:2016:i:2:p:1123-1146:n:1
    DOI: 10.1515/bejeap-2014-0127
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Alicia Adsera, 2005. "Vanishing Children: From High Unemployment to Low Fertility in Developed Countries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(2), pages 189-193, May.
    2. Pedro Mira & Namkee Ahn, 2002. "A note on the changing relationship between fertility and female employment rates in developed countries," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 15(4), pages 667-682.
    3. Timothy J. Bartik, 1991. "Who Benefits from State and Local Economic Development Policies?," Books from Upjohn Press, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, number wbsle.
    4. Dan Anderberg & Helmut Rainer & Jonathan Wadsworth & Tanya Wilson, 2014. "Unemployment and domestic violence," CentrePiece - The magazine for economic performance 411, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    5. Anna Aizer, 2010. "The Gender Wage Gap and Domestic Violence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(4), pages 1847-1859, September.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Cavallini, Flavia, 2024. "Not the right time for children: Unemployment, fertility, and abortion," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    3. Giulia Martina Tanzi, 2023. "Scars of Youth Non-employment and Labour Market Conditions," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 9(2), pages 475-499, July.
    4. Jeongok Park & Kyoungjin Lee & Heejung Kim, 2021. "Factors Associated with Subsequent Childbirth between Marriage Years in Korea," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(23), pages 1-11, November.
    5. Yu-Hu LIN & Wen-Yi CHEN, 2018. "On the Relationship between Business Cycle and Fertility Rate in Taiwan: Evidence from the Nonlinear Cointegration Methodology," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 140-156, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    unemployment; fertility;

    JEL classification:

    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J19 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Other

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