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Divorce and the Business cycle: A cross-country analysis

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  • González-Val, Rafael
  • Marcén, Miriam

Abstract

In this paper, we examine the role of the business cycle in divorce. To do so, we use a panel of 30 European countries covering the period from 1991 to 2010. We find a negative effect of the unemployment rate on the divorce rate, pointing to a pro-cyclical evolution of the divorce rate, even after controlling for socio-economic variables and unobservable characteristics that can vary by country, and/or over time. Results indicate that a one-percentage-point increase in the unemployment rate involves almost 0.02 fewer divorces per thousand inhabitants. The impact is small but significant, representing around 1% of the average divorce rate in Europe during the period considered. Supplementary analysis, developed to explore a possible non-parametric pattern, confirms a clearly negative relationship between unemployment and divorce in European countries, with the inverse relationship being more pronounced when the unemployment rate is greater than 15%.

Suggested Citation

  • González-Val, Rafael & Marcén, Miriam, 2015. "Divorce and the Business cycle: A cross-country analysis," MPRA Paper 63194, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:63194
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    3. Cavallini, Flavia, 2024. "Not the right time for children: Unemployment, fertility, and abortion," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Divorce; unemployment; business cycle;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • J12 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Marriage; Marital Dissolution; Family Structure

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