Attracting travellers to the high-speed train: a methodology for comparing potential demand between stations

The High-Speed Railways (HSR) which are currently operative in 12 countries throughout the world include a wide range of stations with a highly varied capacity to attract travellers. Although there are various reasons for these differences, we have focused on the ones that can be quantified for further comparison. The main purpose of this study was twofold. First of all, we sought to identify stations with a low capacity to attract travellers and to explain the reasons for their concentration in certain countries rather than others. Secondly, we looked for a simple, but widely acceptable, method with which to calculate the capacity to attract users to HSR stations. This would help to establish a better way of allocating financial resources for public investment. This approach enabled us to identify those stations that had little or no potential at all and which had been established for essentially political reasons in countries where the concept of territorial cohesion had been applied in an inappropriate way. This led us to a number of observations relating to the railway policies undertaken in the countries studied and to underline the need for greater international coordination in areas like Europe and for better justified HSR policies. The calculations presented in this article use data relating to the urban populations which live in the vicinity of the world’s HSR stations, the distance from each of these stations to the nearest urban centres and the level of the corresponding regional GDP. All of this information has been used to build a GIS to facilitate analysis and pave the way towards a general comparative approach in which stations would be classified according to their capacity to attract travellers. Such an approach could also be used in areas in which lines are currently under construction and/or where future projects – such as the TEN-T in Europe – have already been approved but not yet executed. Our approach will make it easier to obtain data to show the potential success of, and need for, a HSR connexion as a preliminary step within the decision making process. This constitutes a significant contribution to the debate about the need to assess political decisions concerning HSR investments. It also highlights the need to encourage improved intermodality around railway stations and particularly around those located in non-metropolitan areas.