IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/trapol/v68y2018icp63-79.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Delusions of success: Costs and demand of high-speed rail in Italy and Spain

Author

Listed:
  • Beria, Paolo
  • Grimaldi, Raffaele
  • Albalate, Daniel
  • Bel, Germà

Abstract

Mismatches between forecasted and actual costs and traffic figures are common in transport investments, especially in large scale ones, and so are delusions of the future demand. High-speed rail projects are often among the worst practices for cost overruns and demand overestimation, even where traffic figures may tell a history of apparent success.

Suggested Citation

  • Beria, Paolo & Grimaldi, Raffaele & Albalate, Daniel & Bel, Germà, 2018. "Delusions of success: Costs and demand of high-speed rail in Italy and Spain," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 63-79.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:trapol:v:68:y:2018:i:c:p:63-79
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2018.03.011
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0967070X17306194
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.tranpol.2018.03.011?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Albalate, Daniel & Bel, Germà & Fageda, Xavier, 2015. "When supply travels far beyond demand: Causes of oversupply in Spain's transport infrastructure," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 80-89.
    2. Marti-Henneberg, Jordi, 2015. "Attracting travellers to the high-speed train: a methodology for comparing potential demand between stations," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 145-156.
    3. Cascetta, Ennio & Papola, Andrea & Pagliara, Francesca & Marzano, Vittorio, 2011. "Analysis of mobility impacts of the high speed Rome–Naples rail link using withinday dynamic mode service choice models," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 635-643.
    4. Vickerman, Roger, 2015. "High-speed rail and regional development: the case of intermediate stations," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 157-165.
    5. Kingsley E. Haynes, 1997. "Labor markets and regional transportation improvements: the case of high-speed trains An introduction and review," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 31(1), pages 57-76.
    6. Beria, Paolo & Grimaldi, Raffaele, 2016. "An ex-post cost benefit analysis of Italian High Speed," Working Papers 16_3, SIET Società Italiana di Economia dei Trasporti e della Logistica.
    7. John Preston, 2013. "The Economics of Investment in High-Speed Rail: Summary and Conclusions," International Transport Forum Discussion Papers 2013/30, OECD Publishing.
    8. Elisabetta Iossa & David Martimort, 2011. "The Theory of Incentives Applied to the Transport Sector," Chapters, in: André de Palma & Robin Lindsey & Emile Quinet & Roger Vickerman (ed.), A Handbook of Transport Economics, chapter 29, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    9. Bergantino, Angela S. & Capozza, Claudia & Capurso, Mauro, 2015. "The impact of open access on intra- and inter-modal rail competition. A national level analysis in Italy," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 77-86.
    10. Bent Flyvbjerg, 2007. "Policy and Planning for Large-Infrastructure Projects: Problems, Causes, Cures," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 34(4), pages 578-597, August.
    11. Daniel Albalate & Germá Bel, 2015. "La experiencia internacional en alta velocidad ferroviaria," Working Papers 2015-02, FEDEA.
    12. Locatelli, Giorgio & Invernizzi, Diletta Colette & Brookes, Naomi J., 2017. "Project characteristics and performance in Europe: An empirical analysis for large transport infrastructure projects," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 108-122.
    13. Roger Vickerman, 1997. "High-speed rail in Europe: experience and issues for future development," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 31(1), pages 21-38.
    14. Daniel Albalate & Germà Bel, 2011. "Cuando La Economía No Importa: Auge Y Esplendor De La Alta Velocidad En España," Revista de Economia Aplicada, Universidad de Zaragoza, Departamento de Estructura Economica y Economia Publica, vol. 19(1), pages 171-190, Spring.
    15. Flyvbjerg,Bent & Bruzelius,Nils & Rothengatter,Werner, 2003. "Megaprojects and Risk," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521009461, September.
    16. Albalate, Daniel & Bel, Germà & Fageda, Xavier, 2015. "Competition and cooperation between high-speed rail and air transportation services in Europe," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 166-174.
    17. Campos, Javier & de Rus, Ginés, 2009. "Some stylized facts about high-speed rail: A review of HSR experiences around the world," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 19-28, January.
    18. Yves Crozet, 2014. "Extension of the high speed rail network in France: Facing the curse that affects PPPs in the rail sector," Post-Print halshs-01372609, HAL.
    19. Morten Skou Nicolaisen & Patrick Arthur Driscoll, 2014. "Ex-Post Evaluations of Demand Forecast Accuracy: A Literature Review," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(4), pages 540-557, July.
    20. Germà Bel, 2011. "Infrastructure and nation building: The regulation and financing of network transportation infrastructures in Spain (1720--2010)," Business History, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(5), pages 688-705, August.
    21. Michael Minn, 2013. "The Political Economy of High Speed Rail in the United States," Mobilities, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(2), pages 185-200, May.
    22. L van den Berg & P M J Pol, 1998. "The Urban Implications of the Developing European High-Speed-Train Network," Environment and Planning C, , vol. 16(4), pages 483-497, August.
    23. Bergantino, Angela S. & Capozza, Claudia & Capurso, Mauro, 2015. "The impact of open access on intra- and inter-modal rail competition. A national level analysis in Italy," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 77-86.
    24. Perl, Anthony D. & Goetz, Andrew R., 2015. "Corridors, hybrids and networks: three global development strategies for high speed rail," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 134-144.
    25. Leif Helland & Rune Sørensen, 2009. "Geographical redistribution with disproportional representation: a politico-economic model of Norwegian road projects," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 139(1), pages 5-19, April.
    26. Daniel Albalate & Germà Bel & Xavier Fageda, 2012. "Beyond the efficiency-equity dilemma: Centralization as a determinant of government investment in infrastructure," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 91(3), pages 599-615, August.
    27. Pau Castells & Francesc Trillas, 2013. "The effects of surprise political events on quoted firms: the March 2004 election in Spain," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 83-112, March.
    28. Moshe Givoni, 2006. "Development and Impact of the Modern High‐speed Train: A Review," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(5), pages 593-611, January.
    29. Crozet, Yves, 2014. "Extension of the high speed rail network in France: Facing the curse that affects PPPs in the rail sector," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 401-409.
    30. Bert van Wee, 2007. "Large Infrastructure Projects: A Review of the Quality of Demand Forecasts and Cost Estimations," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 34(4), pages 611-625, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Borsati, Mattia & Albalate, Daniel, 2020. "On the modal shift from motorway to high-speed rail: evidence from Italy," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 145-164.
    2. Jun‐Teng Ma & Tie‐Ying Liu, 2022. "Does the high‐speed rail network improve economic growth?," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 101(1), pages 183-208, February.
    3. Mohsen Momenitabar & Zhila Dehdari Ebrahimi & Mohammad Arani, 2020. "A Systematic and Analytical Review of the Socioeconomic and Environmental Impact of the Deployed High-Speed Rail (HSR) Systems on the World," Papers 2003.04452, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2020.
    4. Rothengatter, Werner, 2019. "Megaprojects in transportation networks," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 1-15.
    5. Rategh, Yalda & Tamannaei, Mohammad & Zarei, Hamid, 2022. "A game-theoretic approach to an oligopolistic transportation market: Coopetition between incumbent systems subject to the entrance threat of an HSR service," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 144-171.
    6. Tengyuan Chang & Xiaopeng Deng & Bon-Gang Hwang, 2019. "Investigating Political Risk Paths in International High-Speed Railway Projects: The Case of Chinese International Contractors," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(15), pages 1-15, August.
    7. de Freitas, Lucas Meyer & Blum, Salem, 2024. "An accessibility-based methodology to identify corridor speed upgrades in the European rail network," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    8. Beria, Paolo & Bertolin, Alberto, 2019. "Evolving long-distance passenger services. Market concentration, fares and specialisation patterns in Italy," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 77-92.
    9. Beria, Paolo & Lunkar, Vardhman & Tolentino, Samuel & Pařil, Vilém & Kvasnička, Michal, 2023. "Long-distance rail in Europe: Comparing the forms of head-on competition across Europe," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    10. Di Matteo, Dante & Mariotti, Ilaria & Rossi, Federica, 2023. "Transport infrastructure and economic performance: An evaluation of the Milan-Bologna high-speed rail corridor," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    11. Martín, Belén & Ortega, Emilio & de Isidro, Ágata & Iglesias-Merchan, Carlos, 2021. "Improvements in high-speed rail network environmental evaluation and planning: An assessment of accessibility gains and landscape connectivity costs in Spain," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    12. Carlos Romero & Clara Zamorano & Emilio Ortega & Belén Martín, 2021. "Access to Secondary HSR Stations in the Urban Periphery: A Generalised Cost-Based Assessment," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-19, November.
    13. Beria, Paolo & Tolentino, Samuel & Filippini, Gabriele, 2020. "Are prices reduced from direct competition in high-speed rail? Some unexpected evidences from Italy," MPRA Paper 98841, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Li, Zekun & Chen, Zhenhua, 2023. "Predicting the future development scale of high-speed rail through the urban scaling law," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    15. Jiao, Jingjuan & Wang, Jiaoe & Zhang, Fangni & Jin, Fengjun & Liu, Wei, 2020. "Roles of accessibility, connectivity and spatial interdependence in realizing the economic impact of high-speed rail: Evidence from China," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 1-15.
    16. Audinga Baltrunaite & Egle Karmaziene, 2020. "Trainspotting: Board Appointments in Private Firms," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1278, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Borsati, Mattia & Albalate, Daniel, 2020. "On the modal shift from motorway to high-speed rail: evidence from Italy," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 145-164.
    2. Kim, Hyojin & Sultana, Selima & Weber, Joe, 2018. "A geographic assessment of the economic development impact of Korean high-speed rail stations," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 127-137.
    3. Daniel Albalate & Germá Bel, 2015. "La experiencia internacional en alta velocidad ferroviaria," Working Papers 2015-02, FEDEA.
    4. Bergantino, Angela Stefania & Madio, Leonardo, 2020. "Intermodal competition and substitution. HSR versus air transport: Understanding the socio-economic determinants of modal choice," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    5. Albalate, Daniel & Fageda, Xavier, 2016. "High speed rail and tourism: Empirical evidence from Spain," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 174-185.
    6. Daniel Albalate del sol, 2015. "Evaluating HSR availability on Tourism: Evidence from Spanish Provinces and Cities," ERSA conference papers ersa15p288, European Regional Science Association.
    7. Dominique Bouf & Christian Desmaris, 2015. "High speed trains and spatial equity in France [Trains à grande vitesse et équité spatiale en France]," Working Papers halshs-01194897, HAL.
    8. Carlos Augusto Olarte Bacares & Julien Brunel & Damien Sigaud, 2019. "Influence of the evolution of high-speed railway infrastructure on the success of Italian liberalization," Competition and Regulation in Network Industries, , vol. 20(2), pages 113-137, June.
    9. Huang, Yan & Zong, Huiming, 2020. "The spatial distribution and determinants of China’s high-speed train services," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 56-70.
    10. Xia, Wenyi & Zhang, Anming, 2016. "High-speed rail and air transport competition and cooperation: A vertical differentiation approach," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 456-481.
    11. Chen, Xiaoyan & Liu, Yisheng, 2020. "Visualization analysis of high-speed railway research based on CiteSpace," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 1-17.
    12. Chen, Zhenhua, 2023. "Socioeconomic Impacts of high-speed rail: A bibliometric analysis," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    13. Castillo-Manzano, José I. & Pozo-Barajas, Rafael & Trapero, Juan R., 2015. "Measuring the substitution effects between High Speed Rail and air transport in Spain," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 59-65.
    14. Wang, Kun & Xia, Wenyi & Zhang, Anming, 2017. "Should China further expand its high-speed rail network? Consider the low-cost carrier factor," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 105-120.
    15. Desmaris, Christian & Croccolo, Fabio, 2018. "The HSR competition in Italy: How are the regulatory design and practices concerned?," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 290-299.
    16. Diego García-Mejuto, 2022. "Theorizing nation-building through high-speed rail development: Hegemony and space in the Basque Country, Spain," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 54(3), pages 554-571, May.
    17. Beria, Paolo & Lunkar, Vardhman & Tolentino, Samuel & Pařil, Vilém & Kvasnička, Michal, 2023. "Long-distance rail in Europe: Comparing the forms of head-on competition across Europe," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    18. Perl, Anthony D. & Goetz, Andrew R., 2015. "Corridors, hybrids and networks: three global development strategies for high speed rail," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 134-144.
    19. Chen, Zhenhua, 2017. "Impacts of high-speed rail on domestic air transportation in China," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 184-196.
    20. Zhang, Anming & Wan, Yulai & Yang, Hangjun, 2019. "Impacts of high-speed rail on airlines, airports and regional economies: A survey of recent research," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 1-19.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:trapol:v:68:y:2018:i:c:p:63-79. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/30473/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.