IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jocoma/v19y2020ics2405851319300753.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The market response to government crop news under different release regimes

Author

Listed:
  • Adjemian, Michael K.
  • Irwin, Scott H.

Abstract

Many USDA reports are anticipated by commodity traders because they contain news about market fundamentals. USDA has made several recent changes to the publication of these reports, including shifting their publication time, releasing them so that traders can respond in real-time, and--just last July--removing media from the lockup environment where reports are prepared. Previously, traders had hours to digest USDA news, or at least access media summaries of that news, before or just as active trading resumed; now traders must digest news while markets are open. We show that continuous trading of government news coincided with wider daily session price ranges in the CBOT corn market. At the intraday level, we confirm recent findings about elevated trading volatility at report publication time under the real-time format: that these volatility spikes moderate fairly quickly, and that the CBOT corn market has a more difficult time distinguishing important news events. Although the sample of news events since the lockup policy change is small, we do not find evidence that removing media members from lockup has increased announcement time price volatility using either daily or intraday data.

Suggested Citation

  • Adjemian, Michael K. & Irwin, Scott H., 2020. "The market response to government crop news under different release regimes," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 19(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jocoma:v:19:y:2020:i:c:s2405851319300753
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jcomm.2019.100110
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405851319300753
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jcomm.2019.100110?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hu, Grace Xing & Pan, Jun & Wang, Jiang, 2017. "Early peek advantage? Efficient price discovery with tiered information disclosure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(2), pages 399-421.
    2. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:2:p:755-793 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Quanbiao Shang & Mindy Mallory & Philip Garcia, 2018. "The components of the bid†ask spread: Evidence from the corn futures market," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 49(3), pages 381-393, May.
    4. Adrian Fernandez‐Perez & Bart Frijns & Ivan Indriawan & Alireza Tourani‐Rad, 2019. "Surprise and dispersion: informational impact of USDA announcements," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 50(1), pages 113-126, January.
    5. Nathan Kauffman, 2013. "Have extended trading hours made agricultural commodity markets riskier?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q III, pages 67-94.
    6. Alex Frino & Michael Garcia, 2018. "Should macroeconomic information be released during trading breaks in futures markets?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(7), pages 775-787, July.
    7. Karali, Berna & Isengildina-Massa, Olga & Irwin, Scott H. & Adjemian, Michael K. & Johansson, Robert, 2019. "Are USDA reports still news to changing crop markets?," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 66-76.
    8. Vogel, Fred A. & Bange, Gerald A., 1999. "Understanding USDA Crop Forecasts," USDA Miscellaneous 320799, United States Department of Agriculture.
    9. Kishore Joseph & Philip Garcia, 2018. "Intraday market effects in electronic soybean futures market during non-trading and trading hour announcements," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(11), pages 1188-1202, March.
    10. Georg V. Lehecka & Xiaoyang Wang & Philip Garcia, 2014. "Gone in Ten Minutes: Intraday Evidence of Announcement Effects in the Electronic Corn Futures Market," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 36(3), pages 504-526.
    11. Michael K. Adjemian, 2012. "Quantifying the WASDE Announcement Effect," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 94(1), pages 238-256.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Joshua Huang & Teresa Serra & Philip Garcia, 2023. "“Fast money” around Federal Statistics Releases," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 105(4), pages 1248-1266, August.
    2. Olga Isengildina Massa & Berna Karali & Scott H. Irwin, 2024. "What do we know about the value and market impact of the US Department of Agriculture reports?," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 46(2), pages 698-736, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Indriawan, Ivan & Martinez, Valeria & Tse, Yiuman, 2021. "The impact of the change in USDA announcement release procedures on agricultural commodity futures," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 23(C).
    2. Joshua Huang & Teresa Serra & Philip Garcia & Scott H. Irwin, 2022. "To batch or not to batch? The release of USDA crop reports," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 53(1), pages 143-154, January.
    3. An N. Q. Cao & Michel A. Robe, 2022. "Market uncertainty and sentiment around USDA announcements," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(2), pages 250-275, February.
    4. Joshua Huang & Teresa Serra & Philip Garcia, 2021. "The Value of USDA Announcements in the Electronically Traded Corn Futures Market: A Modified Sufficient Test with Risk Adjustments," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(3), pages 712-734, September.
    5. Adrian Fernandez‐Perez & Bart Frijns & Ivan Indriawan & Alireza Tourani‐Rad, 2019. "Surprise and dispersion: informational impact of USDA announcements," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 50(1), pages 113-126, January.
    6. Bunek, Gabriel D. & Janzen, Joseph P., 2024. "Does public information facilitate price consensus? Characterizing USDA announcement effects using realized volatility," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 33(C).
    7. Adjemian, Michael K. & Johansson, Robert & McKenzie, Andrew & Thomsen, Michael, 2016. "The Value of Government Information in an Era of Declining Budgets," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 235811, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    8. Thomas A. P. de Boer & Cornelis Gardebroek & Joost M. E. Pennings & Andres Trujillo‐Barrera, 2022. "Intraday liquidity in soybean complex futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(7), pages 1189-1211, July.
    9. Kishore Joseph & Philip Garcia, 2018. "Intraday market effects in electronic soybean futures market during non-trading and trading hour announcements," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(11), pages 1188-1202, March.
    10. Quanbiao Shang & Teresa Serra & Philip Garcia & Mindy Mallory, 2021. "Looking under the surface: An analysis of iceberg orders in the U.S. agricultural futures markets," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 52(4), pages 679-699, July.
    11. Arnade, Carlos Anthony & Hoffman, Linwood A., 2020. "The Impact of Public Information on Commodity Market Performance : The Response of Corn Futures to USDA Corn Production Forecasts," 2020 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, Kansas City, Missouri 304181, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    12. Michael K Adjemian & Robert Johansson & Andrew McKenzie & Michael Thomsen, 2018. "Was the Missing 2013 WASDE Missed?," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(4), pages 653-671, December.
    13. Goyal, Raghav & Adjemian, Michael K., 2021. "The 2019 government shutdown increased uncertainty in major agricultural commodity markets," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    14. Siddhartha S. Bora & Ani L. Katchova & Todd H. Kuethe, 2021. "The Rationality of USDA Forecasts under Multivariate Asymmetric Loss," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 103(3), pages 1006-1033, May.
    15. Nicolas Legrand, 2023. "War in Ukraine: The rational “wait‐and‐see” mode of global food markets," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 45(2), pages 626-644, June.
    16. Berna Karali & Scott H. Irwin & Olga Isengildina‐Massa, 2020. "Supply Fundamentals and Grain Futures Price Movements," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 102(2), pages 548-568, March.
    17. Isengildina-Massa, Olga & Cao, Xiang & Karali, Berna & Irwin, Scott H. & Adjemian, Michael & Johansson, Robert C., 2021. "When does USDA information have the most impact on crop and livestock markets?," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 22(C).
    18. Michael K. Adjemian & Valentina G. Bruno & Michel A. Robe, 2020. "Incorporating Uncertainty into USDA Commodity Price Forecasts," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 102(2), pages 696-712, March.
    19. Ying, Jiahui & Shonkwiler, J. Scott, 2017. "A Temporal Impact Assessment Method for the Informational Content of USDA Reports in Corn and Soybean Futures Markets," 2017 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 1, Chicago, Illinois 258201, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    20. Matthew Houser & Berna Karali, 2020. "How Scary Are Food Scares? Evidence from Animal Disease Outbreaks," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 42(2), pages 283-306, June.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jocoma:v:19:y:2020:i:c:s2405851319300753. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jcomm .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.