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Market Uncertainty and Sentiment around USDA Announcements

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  • Cao, Nguyen Que An
  • Robe, Michel A.

Abstract

We investigate forward‐looking commodity price volatility expectations (proxied by option‐implied volatilities or IVols) around scheduled US Department of Agriculture (USDA) reports. We show that corn and soybean IVols are significantly lower for several trading days after a report. The IVol response to a release depends on agricultural market experts' disagreement and sentiment before the USDA report, and on the extent to which the USDA information surprises the market. Whereas commodity IVols are generally positively related to financial‐market sentiment and macroeconomic uncertainty (jointly captured by the volatility index [VIX]), this comovement breaks down on report days—with the VIX and commodity IVols moving in opposite directions.
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  • Cao, Nguyen Que An & Robe, Michel A., 2020. "Market Uncertainty and Sentiment around USDA Announcements," 2020 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, Kansas City, Missouri 304497, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea20:304497
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.304497
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    5. Bunek, Gabriel D. & Janzen, Joseph P., 2024. "Does public information facilitate price consensus? Characterizing USDA announcement effects using realized volatility," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 33(C).
    6. Cao, An N.Q. & Gebrekidan, Bisrat Haile & Heckelei, Thomas & Robe, Michel A., 2022. "County-level USDA Crop Progress and Condition data, machine learning, and commodity market surprises," 2022 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Anaheim, California 322281, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    7. Li, Zhao-Chen & Xie, Chi & Zeng, Zhi-Jian & Wang, Gang-Jin & Zhang, Ting, 2023. "Forecasting global stock market volatilities in an uncertain world," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    8. Ben Chamberlain & Zhangxin (Frank) Liu & Lee A. Smales, 2023. "Short interest and the stock market relation with news sentiment from traditional and social media sources," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(2), pages 321-334, June.
    9. Capitani, Daniel H D & Mattos, Fabio L. & Cruz, Jose Cesar & Silva, Renato Moraes & Franco Da Silveira, Rodrigo Lanna, 2024. "The Reaction Of Corn Futures Prices To U.S. And Brazilian Crop Reports," 2024 Annual Meeting, July 28-30, New Orleans, LA 343571, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

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