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Modeling covariance matrices via partial autocorrelations

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  • Daniels, M.J.
  • Pourahmadi, M.

Abstract

We study the role of partial autocorrelations in the reparameterization and parsimonious modeling of a covariance matrix. The work is motivated by and tries to mimic the phenomenal success of the partial autocorrelations function (PACF) in model formulation, removing the positive-definiteness constraint on the autocorrelation function of a stationary time series and in reparameterizing the stationarity-invertibility domain of ARMA models. It turns out that once an order is fixed among the variables of a general random vector, then the above properties continue to hold and follow from establishing a one-to-one correspondence between a correlation matrix and its associated matrix of partial autocorrelations. Connections between the latter and the parameters of the modified Cholesky decomposition of a covariance matrix are discussed. Graphical tools similar to partial correlograms for model formulation and various priors based on the partial autocorrelations are proposed. We develop frequentist/Bayesian procedures for modelling correlation matrices, illustrate them using a real dataset, and explore their properties via simulations.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniels, M.J. & Pourahmadi, M., 2009. "Modeling covariance matrices via partial autocorrelations," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 100(10), pages 2352-2363, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jmvana:v:100:y:2009:i:10:p:2352-2363
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    8. Luigi Spezia, 2019. "Modelling covariance matrices by the trigonometric separation strategy with application to hidden Markov models," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 28(2), pages 399-422, June.
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    11. Hui Yao & Sungduk Kim & Ming-Hui Chen & Joseph G. Ibrahim & Arvind K. Shah & Jianxin Lin, 2015. "Bayesian Inference for Multivariate Meta-Regression With a Partially Observed Within-Study Sample Covariance Matrix," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 110(510), pages 528-544, June.
    12. Carter, Christopher K. & Wong, Frederick & Kohn, Robert, 2011. "Constructing priors based on model size for nondecomposable Gaussian graphical models: A simulation based approach," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 102(5), pages 871-883, May.
    13. Li Su & Sarah Brown & Pulak Ghosh & Karl Taylor, 2012. "Modelling Household Debt and Financial Assets: A Bayesian Approach to a Bivariate Two-Part Model," Working Papers 2012009, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics.
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    16. Daniel F. Schmidt & Enes Makalic, 2013. "Estimation of stationary autoregressive models with the Bayesian LASSO," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(5), pages 517-531, September.

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