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Small business under the COVID-19 crisis: Expected short- and medium-run effects of anti-contagion and economic policies

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  • Kawaguchi, Kohei
  • Kodama, Naomi
  • Tanaka, Mari

Abstract

This study makes a causal inference on the effects of anti-contagion and economic policies on small business by conducting a survey on Japanese small business managers’ expectations about the pandemic, policies, and firm performance. We first find the business suspension request decreased targeted firms’ sales by 10 percentage points on top of the baseline 9 percentage points decline due to COVID-19, even though the Japanese anti-contagion policy was in a form of the government’s request that is not legally enforceable. Second, using a discontinuity in the eligibility criteria, we find lump-sum and prompt subsidies improved firms’ prospects of survival by 19 percentage points. Third, the medium-run recovery of firms’ performance is expected to depend crucially on when infections would end, indicating that the anti-contagion policies could complement longer-run economic goals.

Suggested Citation

  • Kawaguchi, Kohei & Kodama, Naomi & Tanaka, Mari, 2021. "Small business under the COVID-19 crisis: Expected short- and medium-run effects of anti-contagion and economic policies," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jjieco:v:61:y:2021:i:c:s0889158321000174
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jjie.2021.101138
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    16. Solomon Hsiang & Daniel Allen & Sébastien Annan-Phan & Kendon Bell & Ian Bolliger & Trinetta Chong & Hannah Druckenmiller & Luna Yue Huang & Andrew Hultgren & Emma Krasovich & Peiley Lau & Jaecheol Le, 2020. "The effect of large-scale anti-contagion policies on the COVID-19 pandemic," Nature, Nature, vol. 584(7820), pages 262-267, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hoshi, Kisho & Kasahara, Hiroyuki & Makioka, Ryo & Suzuki, Michio & Tanaka, Satoshi, 2022. "The heterogeneous effects of COVID-19 on labor markets: People’s movement and non-pharmaceutical interventions," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    2. Cheng Chen & Tatsuro Senga & Hongyong Zhang, 2021. "Measuring business-level expectations and uncertainty: survey evidence and the COVID-19 pandemic," The Japanese Economic Review, Springer, vol. 72(3), pages 509-532, July.
    3. Honda, Tomohito & Hosono, Kaoru & Miyakawa, Daisuke & Ono, Arito & Uesugi, Iichiro, 2023. "Determinants and effects of the use of COVID-19 business support programs in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    4. Kikuchi, Shinnosuke & Kitao, Sagiri & Mikoshiba, Minamo, 2021. "Who suffers from the COVID-19 shocks? Labor market heterogeneity and welfare consequences in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    5. Daiji Kawaguchi & Sagiri Kitao & Manabu Nose, 2022. "The impact of COVID-19 on Japanese firms: mobility and resilience via remote work," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 29(6), pages 1419-1449, December.
    6. Hiroyuki Okamuro & Yasushi Hara & Yunosuke Iwaki, 2022. "Impact of Consumer Awareness and Behavior on Business Exits in the Hospitality, Tourism, Entertainment, and Culture Industries under the COVID-19 Pandemic," Administrative Sciences, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-19, November.
    7. Chen, Joy & Cheng, Zijun & Gong, Robin Kaiji & Li, Jinlin, 2022. "Riding out the COVID-19 storm: How government policies affect SMEs in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    8. Yuya Katafuchi & Kenichi Kurita & Shunsuke Managi, 2021. "COVID-19 with Stigma: Theory and Evidence from Mobility Data," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 71-95, April.
    9. Rosmadi Fauzi & Mariney Mohd Yusoff & Abd Rahman Roslan & Siti Nadira Ahmad Rozlan & Muhammad Fathi Marzuki & Mohd Muslim Said & Kamaruzaman Jusoff, 2023. "Measuring the Struggle of Small-Scale Businesses in the COVID-19 Environment," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-17, March.
    10. Delgado Narro, Ausugto Ricardo & Katafuchi, Yuya, 2020. "COVID-19, state of emergency, and housing market," MPRA Paper 102456, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Shinnosuke Kikuchi & Sagiri Kitao & Minamo Mikoshiba, 2020. "Who Suffers from the COVID-19 Shocks? Labor Market Heterogeneity and Welfare Consequences in Japan (Forthcoming in the Journal of the Japanese and the International Economies)," CARF F-Series CARF-F-490, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    12. Katafuchi, Yuya & Kurita, Kenichi & Managi, Shunsuke, 2020. "Self-restraint behavior under COVID-19 through stigma: Theory and evidence based on mobility data," MPRA Paper 102182, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Miyakawa, Daisuke & Oikawa, Koki & Ueda, Kozo, 2021. "Firm Exit during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence from Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    14. Satoshi Tanaka, 2022. "Economic Impacts of SARS/MERS/COVID‐19 in Asian Countries," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 17(1), pages 41-61, January.
    15. Gyujin Heo & Catherine Apio & Kyulhee Han & Taewan Goo & Hye Won Chung & Taehyun Kim & Hakyong Kim & Yeonghyeon Ko & Doeun Lee & Jisun Lim & Taesung Park, 2021. "Statistical Estimation of Effects of Implemented Government Policies on COVID-19 Situation in South Korea," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(4), pages 1-11, February.
    16. Taiyo Fukai & Hidehiko Ichimura & Keisuke Kawata, 2021. "Describing the impacts of COVID-19 on the labor market in Japan until June 2020," The Japanese Economic Review, Springer, vol. 72(3), pages 439-470, July.
    17. Christina Nicolas & Nathalie Brender & David Maradan, 2023. "How Did Swiss Small and Medium Enterprises Weather the COVID-19 Pandemic? Evidence from Survey Data," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 16(2), pages 1-16, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; Causal inference; Manager’s expectation; Business performance; Subsidy; Small business; Regression discontinuity design; Randomized controlled trial; Difference-in-difference; Pandemic; Infection; Anti-contagion policies; Lockdown; Survey;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • L50 - Industrial Organization - - Regulation and Industrial Policy - - - General

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