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Rationing social contact during the COVID-19 pandemic: Transmission risk and social benefits of US locations

Author

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  • Seth G. Benzell

    (MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02142; Argyros School of Business and Economics, Chapman University, Orange, CA 92866)

  • Avinash Collis

    (MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02142; McCombs School of Business, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX 78705)

  • Christos Nicolaides

    (MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02142; School of Economics and Management, University of Cyprus, 2109 Aglantzia, Nicosia, Cyprus)

Abstract

To prevent the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), some types of public spaces have been shut down while others remain open. These decisions constitute a judgment about the relative danger and benefits of those locations. Using mobility data from a large sample of smartphones, nationally representative consumer preference surveys, and economic statistics, we measure the relative transmission reduction benefit and social cost of closing 26 categories of US locations. Our categories include types of shops, entertainments, and service providers. We rank categories by their trade-off of social benefits and transmission risk via dominance across 13 dimensions of risk and importance and through composite indexes. We find that, from February to March 2020, there were larger declines in visits to locations that our measures indicate should be closed first.

Suggested Citation

  • Seth G. Benzell & Avinash Collis & Christos Nicolaides, 2020. "Rationing social contact during the COVID-19 pandemic: Transmission risk and social benefits of US locations," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 117(26), pages 14642-14644, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:nas:journl:v:117:y:2020:p:14642-14644
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    References listed on IDEAS

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