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US real interest rates and default risk in emerging economies

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  • Foley-Fisher, Nathan
  • Guimarães, Bernardo de Vasconcellos

Abstract

This paper empirically investigates the impact of changes in US real interest rates on sovereign default risk in emerging economies using the method of identification through heteroskedasticity. Policy-induced increases in US interest rates starkly raise default risk in emerging market economies. However, the overall correlation between US real interest rates and the risk of default is negative, demonstrating that the effects of other variables dominate the anterior relationship

Suggested Citation

  • Foley-Fisher, Nathan & Guimarães, Bernardo de Vasconcellos, 2012. "US real interest rates and default risk in emerging economies," Textos para discussão 295, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil).
    • Handle: RePEc:fgv:eesptd:295
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Guimaraes, Bernardo, 2007. "Optimal external debt and default," CEPR Discussion Papers 6035, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Uribe, Martin & Yue, Vivian Z., 2006. "Country spreads and emerging countries: Who drives whom?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 6-36, June.
    3. Neumeyer, Pablo A. & Perri, Fabrizio, 2005. "Business cycles in emerging economies: the role of interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 345-380, March.
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    5. Rigobon, Roberto & Sack, Brian, 2004. "The impact of monetary policy on asset prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(8), pages 1553-1575, November.
    6. Vivek Arora & Martin Cerisola, 2001. "How Does U.S. Monetary Policy Influence Sovereign Spreads in Emerging Markets?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 48(3), pages 1-3.
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    9. Bernardo Guimaraes, 2011. "Sovereign default: which shocks matter?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(4), pages 553-576, October.
    10. Roberto Rigobon, 2003. "Identification Through Heteroskedasticity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 777-792, November.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Urban Sila, 2009. "Can Family-Support Policies Help Explain Differences in Working Hours Across Countries?," CEP Discussion Papers dp0955, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    2. Karatas, B., 2014. "Financial crisis and monetary policy," Other publications TiSEM 41e463f0-e122-4379-8db5-6, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    3. Ana Rincon-Aznar, 2009. "Rates of return and alternative measures of capital input: 14 countries and 10 branches, 1971-2005," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 347, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    4. Benjamin Hébert & Jesse Schreger, 2017. "The Costs of Sovereign Default: Evidence from Argentina," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(10), pages 3119-3145, October.
    5. Johri, Alok & Khan, Shahed & Sosa-Padilla, César, 2022. "Interest rate uncertainty and sovereign default risk," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    6. Ricardo Sabbadini, 2018. "Loss Aversion and Search for Yield in Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2018_16, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
    7. Flores, Eduardo & de Carvalho, João Vinicius França & Sampaio, Joelson Oliveira, 2021. "Impact of interest rates on the life insurance market development: Cross-country evidence," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    8. Hideaki Matsuoka, 2022. "Debt Intolerance: Threshold Level and Composition," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(4), pages 894-932, August.
    9. Pina, Gonçalo, 2024. "State-contingent debt with lender risk aversion," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 180-189.
    10. Henri Audigé, 2014. "Net flows to emerging markets’ funds and the U.S. monetary policy after the subprime crisis," EconomiX Working Papers 2014-23, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    11. Yingxiu Zhao & Wei Zhang & Yuelei Li & Shuxing Yin & Yang Yang, 2021. "Crazy gamblers or cautious investors? Evidence from a peer‐to‐peer market in China," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 89(5), pages 507-525, September.
    12. Converse, Nathan, 2018. "Uncertainty, capital flows, and maturity mismatch," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 260-275.
    13. Eijffinger, Sylvester C.W. & Karataş, Bilge, 2023. "Three sisters: The interlinkage between sovereign debt, currency, and banking crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    14. Bernardo Guimaraes, 2011. "Sovereign default: which shocks matter?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(4), pages 553-576, October.
    15. Horvath, Jaroslav & Zhong, Jiansheng, 2019. "Unemployment dynamics in emerging countries: Monetary policy and external shocks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 31-49.
    16. Benjamin Hébert & Jesse Schreger, 2014. "The Costs of Sovereign Default: Evidence from Argentina," Working Paper 223701, Harvard University OpenScholar.
    17. Prabu A, Edwin & Bhattacharyya, Indranil & Ray, Partha, 2016. "Is the stock market impervious to monetary policy announcements: Evidence from emerging India," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 166-179.
    18. Dooyeon Cho & Dong‐Eun Rhee, 2024. "Determinants of market‐assessed sovereign default risk: Macroeconomic fundamentals or global shocks?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(1), pages 35-60, April.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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