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US real interest rates and default risk in emerging economies

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  • Foley-Fisher, Nathan
  • Guimaraes, Bernardo

Abstract

We empirically analyse the appropriateness of indexing emerging market sovereign debt to US real interest rates. We find that policy-induced exogenous increases in US rates raise default risk in emerging market economies, as hypothesised in the theoretical literature. However, we also find evidence that omitted variables which simultaneously increase US real interest rates and reduce the risk of default dominate the hypothesised relationship. We can only conclude that it’s not a good idea to index emerging market bonds to US real interest rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Foley-Fisher, Nathan & Guimaraes, Bernardo, 2009. "US real interest rates and default risk in emerging economies," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 28683, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:28683
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Guimaraes, Bernardo, 2007. "Optimal external debt and default," CEPR Discussion Papers 6035, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Uribe, Martin & Yue, Vivian Z., 2006. "Country spreads and emerging countries: Who drives whom?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 6-36, June.
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    6. Vivek Arora & Martin Cerisola, 2001. "How Does U.S. Monetary Policy Influence Sovereign Spreads in Emerging Markets?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 48(3), pages 1-3.
    7. Zettelmeyer, Jeromin, 2004. "The impact of monetary policy on the exchange rate: evidence from three small open economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 635-652, April.
    8. Francis A. Longstaff & Jun Pan & Lasse H. Pedersen & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2011. "How Sovereign Is Sovereign Credit Risk?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 75-103, April.
    9. Bernardo Guimaraes, 2011. "Sovereign default: which shocks matter?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(4), pages 553-576, October.
    10. Roberto Rigobon, 2003. "Identification Through Heteroskedasticity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 777-792, November.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Karatas, B., 2014. "Financial crisis and monetary policy," Other publications TiSEM 41e463f0-e122-4379-8db5-6, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    2. Ana Rincon-Aznar, 2009. "Rates of return and alternative measures of capital input: 14 countries and 10 branches, 1971-2005," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 347, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    3. Johri, Alok & Khan, Shahed & Sosa-Padilla, César, 2022. "Interest rate uncertainty and sovereign default risk," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    4. Ricardo Sabbadini, 2018. "Loss Aversion and Search for Yield in Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2018_16, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
    5. Benjamin Hébert & Jesse Schreger, 2017. "The Costs of Sovereign Default: Evidence from Argentina," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(10), pages 3119-3145, October.
    6. Henri Audigé, 2014. "Net flows to emerging markets’ funds and the U.S. monetary policy after the subprime crisis," EconomiX Working Papers 2014-23, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    7. Yingxiu Zhao & Wei Zhang & Yuelei Li & Shuxing Yin & Yang Yang, 2021. "Crazy gamblers or cautious investors? Evidence from a peer‐to‐peer market in China," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 89(5), pages 507-525, September.
    8. Sila, Urban, 2009. "Can family-support policies help explain differences in working hours across countries?," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 28684, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    9. Bernardo Guimaraes, 2011. "Sovereign default: which shocks matter?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(4), pages 553-576, October.
    10. Eijffinger, Sylvester C.W. & Karataş, Bilge, 2023. "Three sisters: The interlinkage between sovereign debt, currency, and banking crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    11. Horvath, Jaroslav & Zhong, Jiansheng, 2019. "Unemployment dynamics in emerging countries: Monetary policy and external shocks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 31-49.
    12. Flores, Eduardo & de Carvalho, João Vinicius França & Sampaio, Joelson Oliveira, 2021. "Impact of interest rates on the life insurance market development: Cross-country evidence," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    13. Hideaki Matsuoka, 2022. "Debt Intolerance: Threshold Level and Composition," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(4), pages 894-932, August.
    14. Pina, Gonçalo, 2024. "State-contingent debt with lender risk aversion," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 180-189.
    15. Converse, Nathan, 2018. "Uncertainty, capital flows, and maturity mismatch," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 260-275.
    16. Prabu A, Edwin & Bhattacharyya, Indranil & Ray, Partha, 2016. "Is the stock market impervious to monetary policy announcements: Evidence from emerging India," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 166-179.
    17. Dooyeon Cho & Dong‐Eun Rhee, 2024. "Determinants of market‐assessed sovereign default risk: Macroeconomic fundamentals or global shocks?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(1), pages 35-60, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    real interest rates; default; sovereign debt; identification through heteroskedasticity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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