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Economic policy uncertainty and momentum

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  • Ming Gu
  • Minxing Sun
  • Yangru Wu
  • Weike Xu

Abstract

We show that a news‐based measure of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) negatively forecasts momentum. A 1‐standard‐deviation increase in EPU is associated with a 1.11% decrease in risk‐adjusted momentum returns. The predictive power of EPU is robust after controlling for previously documented economic state variables and macroeconomic uncertainty. We provide an explanation for these results from the perspective of a fund flow‐induced trading mechanism and offer direct empirical support. The literature documents that momentum can be partially attributed to performance‐chasing mutual fund flows. We find that this flow‐induced mechanism functions more effectively in low EPU states, thereby generating stronger stock momentum.

Suggested Citation

  • Ming Gu & Minxing Sun & Yangru Wu & Weike Xu, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty and momentum," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 50(1), pages 237-259, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:finmgt:v:50:y:2021:i:1:p:237-259
    DOI: 10.1111/fima.12322
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    Cited by:

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    3. Peizhi Zhao & Yuyan Wang, 2022. "How Does Economic Policy Uncertainty Affect Momentum Returns? Evidence from China," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 10(3), pages 1-18, July.
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    6. Zhaobo Zhu & Licheng Sun, 2024. "Economic policy uncertainty and short-term reversals," Post-Print hal-04691597, HAL.
    7. Garima Goel & Saumya Ranjan Dash & Mário Nuno Mata & António Bento Caleiro & João Xavier Rita & José António Filipe, 2021. "Economic Policy Uncertainty and Stock Return Momentum," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-17, March.
    8. Qingyuan Han, 2025. "Understanding price momentum, market fluctuations, and crashes: insights from the extended Samuelson model," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 11(1), pages 1-37, December.
    9. Kim, Jeong-Bon & Tseng, Kevin & Wang, Jundong (Jeff) & Xi, Yaoyi, 2024. "Policy uncertainty, bad news disclosure, and stock price crash risk," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    10. Ming, Lei & Song, Wuqi & Dong, Minyi, 2023. "Revisiting time series momentum in China's commodity futures market: Evidence on sources of momentum profits," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).

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