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Market Crashes, Correlated Illiquidity, and Portfolio Choice

Author

Listed:
  • Hong Liu

    (Olin Business School, Washington University in St. Louis, St. Louis, Missouri 63130)

  • Mark Loewenstein

    (Robert H. Smith School of Business, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland 20742)

Abstract

The recent financial crisis highlights the importance of market crashes and the subsequent market illiquidity for optimal portfolio selection. We propose a tractable and flexible portfolio choice model where market crashes can trigger switching into another regime with a different investment opportunity set. We characterize the optimal trading strategy in terms of coupled integro-differential equations and develop a quite general iterative numerical solution procedure. We conduct an extensive analysis of the optimal trading strategy. In contrast to standard portfolio choice models, changes in the investment opportunity set in one regime can affect the optimal trading strategy in another regime even in the absence of transaction costs. In addition, an increase in the expected jump size can increase stock investment even when the expected return remains the same and the volatility increases. Moreover, we show that misestimating the correlation between market crashes and market illiquidity can be costly to investors. This paper was accepted by Wei Xiong, finance.

Suggested Citation

  • Hong Liu & Mark Loewenstein, 2013. "Market Crashes, Correlated Illiquidity, and Portfolio Choice," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 59(3), pages 715-732, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:59:y:2013:i:3:p:715-732
    DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.1120.1561
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Anna Battauz & Alessandro Sbuelz, 2018. "Non†myopic portfolio choice with unpredictable returns: The jump†to†default case," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 24(2), pages 192-208, March.
    3. Lu, Jin-Ray & Hwang, Chih-Chiang & Liu, Min-Luan & Lin, Chien-Yi, 2016. "An incentive problem of risk balancing in portfolio choices," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 192-200.
    4. Herbert Dawid & Serhat Gezer, 2022. "Markov Perfect Equilibria in Multi-Mode Differential Games with Endogenous Timing of Mode Transitions," Dynamic Games and Applications, Springer, vol. 12(2), pages 363-393, June.
    5. Branger, Nicole & Mahayni, Antje & Zieling, Daniel, 2015. "Robustness of stable volatility strategies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 134-151.
    6. Vasiliki Chatzikonstanti & Michail Karoglou, 2022. "Can black swans be tamed with a flexible mean‐variance specification?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 3202-3227, July.
    7. Alexakis, Christos & Kenourgios, Dimitris & Pappas, Vasileios & Petropoulou, Athina, 2021. "From dotcom to Covid-19: A convergence analysis of Islamic investments," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    8. Michal Czerwonko & Stylianos Perrakis, 2016. "Portfolio Selection with Transaction Costs and Jump-Diffusion Asset Dynamics I: A Numerical Solution," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 6(04), pages 1-23, December.
    9. Michal Czerwonko & Stylianos Perrakis, 2016. "Portfolio Selection with Transaction Costs and Jump-Diffusion Asset Dynamics II: Economic Implications," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 6(04), pages 1-28, December.
    10. Gkillas, Konstantinos & Tsagkanos, Athanasios & Vortelinos, Dimitrios I., 2019. "Integration and risk contagion in financial crises: Evidence from international stock markets," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 350-365.
    11. Yizun Lin & Yangyu Zhang & Zhao-Rong Lai & Cheng Li, 2024. "Autonomous Sparse Mean-CVaR Portfolio Optimization," Papers 2405.08047, arXiv.org.
    12. Buccioli, Alice & Kokholm, Thomas & Nicolosi, Marco, 2019. "Expected shortfall and portfolio management in contagious markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 100-115.

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