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The effects of license plate-based driving restrictions on air quality: Theory and empirical evidence

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  • Zhang, Wei
  • Lin Lawell, C.-Y. Cynthia
  • Umanskaya, Victoria I.

Abstract

A typical driving restriction prohibits drivers from using their vehicles on given weekdays, based on the last digits of their vehicles’ license plates. A number of cities in developing countries have used license plate-based driving restrictions as a policy for reducing urban air pollution and traffic congestion. This paper develops a theoretical model of the effects of license plate-based driving restrictions on air quality that combines an economic model with information about the sources and atmospheric chemistry of different air pollutants. We then draw upon suggestive empirical evidence from license plate-based driving restrictions implemented in Bogotá, Colombia. Consistent with our theory model, we find suggestive empirical evidence that under certain circumstances, due to substitution, the purchase of a second car, the use of alternative modes of transportation, and/or atmospheric chemistry, it is possible for license plate-based driving restrictions to increase air pollution. Also consistent with our theory, we find that license plate-based driving restrictions may have different effects on different air pollutants, reflecting heterogeneity in the sources and atmospheric chemistry of the pollutants. In particular, owing to atmospheric chemistry, it is possible for a license plate-based driving restriction to cause a significant decrease in NO and a significant increase in NO2, NOx, and O3.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhang, Wei & Lin Lawell, C.-Y. Cynthia & Umanskaya, Victoria I., 2017. "The effects of license plate-based driving restrictions on air quality: Theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 181-220.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jeeman:v:82:y:2017:i:c:p:181-220
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2016.12.002
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Q58; R48; Q53; Driving restriction; Air quality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy
    • R48 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Government Pricing and Policy
    • Q53 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Air Pollution; Water Pollution; Noise; Hazardous Waste; Solid Waste; Recycling

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