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Trade networks and firm value: Evidence from the U.S.-China trade war

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  • Huang, Yi
  • Lin, Chen
  • Liu, Sibo
  • Tang, Heiwai

Abstract

We study the financial implications of the 2018–2019 U.S.-China trade war for global supply chains. Around the dates when higher tariffs are announced, U.S. firms that depend more on exports to and imports from China experience larger declines in market value, with the negative effect spilling over to the affected firms' suppliers and customers through production networks. The trade war effect is mainly concentrated among U.S. firms that sell to Chinese customers with low R&D intensity or outsource to Chinese differentiated input suppliers. We also exploit the within-firm variation in tariff exposure according to the detailed product lists and conduct a reverse experiment based on the 2019 trade talks. To explain the findings, we propose a theoretical model that highlights how complex trade structures shape shareholder wealth.

Suggested Citation

  • Huang, Yi & Lin, Chen & Liu, Sibo & Tang, Heiwai, 2023. "Trade networks and firm value: Evidence from the U.S.-China trade war," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:145:y:2023:i:c:s0022199623000971
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2023.103811
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Firm value; Event study; Trade policy; Offshoring; Global value chains;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • O24 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Trade Policy; Factor Movement; Foreign Exchange Policy

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