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The Economic Impacts of the US-China Trade War

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  • Pablo Fajgelbaum
  • Amit Khandelwal

Abstract

In 2018, the US launched a trade war with China, an abrupt departure from its historical leadership in integrating global markets. By late 2019, the US had imposed tariffs on roughly $350 billion of Chinese imports, and China had retaliated on $100 billion US exports. Economists have used a diversity of data and methods to assess the impacts of the trade war on the US, China and other countries. This article reviews what we have learned to date from this work.

Suggested Citation

  • Pablo Fajgelbaum & Amit Khandelwal, 2021. "The Economic Impacts of the US-China Trade War," NBER Working Papers 29315, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29315
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    Cited by:

    1. HAYAKAWA, Kazunobu & SUDSAWASD, Sasatra, 2024. "Trade Effects of the US–China Trade War on a Third Country: Preventing Trade Rerouting from China," IDE Discussion Papers 916, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    2. Chor, Davin & Li, Bingjing, 2024. "Illuminating the effects of the US-China tariff war on China’s economy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    3. Lake, James & Nie, Jun, 2023. "The 2020 US Presidential election and Trump’s wars on trade and health insurance," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    4. Campos, Rodolfo G. & Estefania-Flores, Julia & Furceri, Davide & Timini, Jacopo, 2023. "Geopolitical fragmentation and trade," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 1289-1315.
    5. Asier Minondo, 2024. "How exporters neutralised an increase in tariffs," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(3), pages 1274-1296, March.
    6. Lastauskas, Povilas & Proškutė, Aurelija & Žaldokas, Alminas, 2023. "How do firms adjust when trade stops?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 216(C), pages 287-307.
    7. Huang, Yi & Lin, Chen & Liu, Sibo & Tang, Heiwai, 2023. "Trade networks and firm value: Evidence from the U.S.-China trade war," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    8. Ahn, JaeBin & Greaney, Theresa M. & Kiyota, Kozo, 2022. "Political conflict and angry consumers: Evaluating the regional impacts of a consumer boycott on travel services trade," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    9. Daniel Carroll & Sewon Hur, 2023. "On The Distributional Effects Of International Tariffs," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 64(4), pages 1311-1346, November.
    10. Hayakawa, Kazunobu, 2024. "Exports to the US and imports from China during the US-China tariff war: Evidence from regional trade data in Vietnam," KDI Journal of Economic Policy, Korea Development Institute (KDI), vol. 46(3), pages 49-66.
    11. Jingjing Fan & Feng Shi & Junzhu Zhao & Jingming Zhu, 2023. "Trade Policy Uncertainty, Financial Frictions, and Monetary Policy," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 24(1), pages 193-211, May.
    12. Hayakawa,Kazunobu, 2022. "The trade impact of U.S.-China conflict in Southeast Asia," IDE Discussion Papers 873, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    13. Benguria, Felipe & Choi, Jaerim & Swenson, Deborah L. & Xu, Mingzhi (Jimmy), 2022. "Anxiety or pain? The impact of tariffs and uncertainty on Chinese firms in the trade war," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    14. Pablo Fajgelbaum & Pinelopi Goldberg & Patrick Kennedy & Amit Khandelwal & Daria Taglioni, 2024. "The US-China Trade War and Global Reallocations," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 6(2), pages 295-312, June.
    15. Brian Pustilnik, 2024. "Trade Policy and Reallocation: Multinational vs. Single-Country Linkages in the Tire Industry," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 1009, Central Bank of Chile.
    16. Ding, Guanzu & Guo, Guangyuan & Wu, Caiyun & Yu, Jiawen, 2022. "China-US trade friction and welfare: The role of regional trade agreements," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    17. Hayakawa,Kazunobu, 2024. "Do Exports to the US Increase Imports from China during the US–China Tariff War?," IDE Discussion Papers 946, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    18. Dai, Mi, 2022. "Tariff pass-through: the case of china's WTO accession," IDE Discussion Papers 870, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    19. Kazunobu HAYAKAWA & Sasatra SUDSAWASD, 2024. "Impacts of Trade Diversion from China in the United States Market on Wages in a Third Country: Evidence from Thailand," Working Papers DP-2024-26, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
    20. Mengmeng Liu & Hao Wu & Haopeng Wang, 2023. "Will Trade Protection Trigger a Surge in Investment-Related CO 2 Emissions? Evidence from Multi-Regional Input–Output Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-21, June.
    21. James Lake & Jun Nie, 2022. "The 2020 US Presidential Election and Trump's Trade War," CESifo Working Paper Series 9669, CESifo.
    22. Lei Wang & Thomas Stephen Ramsey, 2023. "Will falling domestic labor compensation share really be improved when global trade slowdown?," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-12, December.
    23. Haichao Fan & Guangyuan Guo & Dongmin Hu, 2023. "Impact of U.S. Tariffs on Chinese Firms' Outward Connection," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 24(2), pages 363-375, November.
    24. Chen, Fang-Yueh, 2023. "Trade warfare and sanctions in vertically related markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    25. Jan Neugebauer & Marek Vokoun, 2024. "Economic and Political Dynamics of Globalization: A Review of Continuity and Change in Research Focus," International Journal of Economic Sciences, European Research Center, vol. 13(1), pages 30-57, May.

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    JEL classification:

    • F0 - International Economics - - General

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