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The disappearing pre-FOMC announcement drift

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  • Kurov, Alexander
  • Wolfe, Marketa Halova
  • Gilbert, Thomas

Abstract

Lucca and Moench (2015) document large average excess returns in U.S. equities before scheduled Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings from September 1994 to March 2011, leading to a puzzle not explained by standard asset pricing theory. We extend the sample to December 2019. We find that after first appearing before FOMC announcements accompanied by the Fed Chair press conferences, the pre-FOMC drift essentially disappeared after 2015 in both announcements accompanied by press conferences and announcements not accompanied by press conferences. We discuss a possible explanation for this change: reduced uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Kurov, Alexander & Wolfe, Marketa Halova & Gilbert, Thomas, 2021. "The disappearing pre-FOMC announcement drift," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 40(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:40:y:2021:i:c:s1544612320315956
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2020.101781
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    Cited by:

    1. Alexis Marchal, 2020. "Risk & returns around FOMC press conferences: a novel perspective from computer vision," Papers 2012.06573, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2021.
    2. Hu, Grace Xing & Pan, Jun & Wang, Jiang & Zhu, Haoxiang, 2022. "Premium for heightened uncertainty: Explaining pre-announcement market returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(3), pages 909-936.
    3. Monaco, Eleonora & Murgia, Lucia Milena, 2023. "Retail attention and the FOMC equity premium," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    4. Huang, Yi & Lin, Chen & Liu, Sibo & Tang, Heiwai, 2023. "Trade networks and firm value: Evidence from the U.S.-China trade war," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    5. Yun, Jaesun & Kwon, Kyung Yoon, 2023. "Biweekly performance of low-risk anomalies over the FOMC cycle," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PC).
    6. Wang, Chen & Zhao, Kevin, 2024. "Pre-Refunding Announcement Gains in U.S. Treasurys," SocArXiv xucf8, Center for Open Science.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    FOMC; Announcements; Drift; Press conferences;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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