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The Globalization Risk Premium

Author

Listed:
  • Sauvagnat, Julien
  • Barrot, Jean-Noël
  • Loualiche, Erik

Abstract

We investigate how globalization is reflected in asset prices. We use shipping costs to measure firms’ exposure to globalization. Firms in low shipping cost industries carry a 8 percent risk premium, suggesting that their cash-flows covary negatively with investors’ marginal utility. We find that the premium emanates from the risk of displacement of least efficient firms triggered by import competition. These findings suggest that foreign productivity shocks are associated with times when consumption is dear for investors. We discuss conditions under which a standard model of trade with asset prices can rationalize this puzzle.

Suggested Citation

  • Sauvagnat, Julien & Barrot, Jean-Noël & Loualiche, Erik, 2016. "The Globalization Risk Premium," CEPR Discussion Papers 11733, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11733
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    Cited by:

    1. Dumas, Bernard & Gabuniya, Tymur & Marston, Richard C, 2020. "Firms' Exposures to Geographic Risks," CEPR Discussion Papers 15503, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Laurent Frésard & Philip Valta, 2016. "How Does Corporate Investment Respond to Increased Entry Threat?," The Review of Corporate Finance Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(1), pages 1-35.
    3. Tristan Jourde, 2022. "The Rising Interconnectedness of the Insurance Sector," Working papers 857, Banque de France.
    4. Jean‐Noël Barrot & Erik Loualiche & Matthew Plosser & Julien Sauvagnat, 2022. "Import Competition and Household Debt," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(6), pages 3037-3091, December.
    5. Julian Di Giovanni & Galina Hale, 2022. "Stock Market Spillovers via the Global Production Network: Transmission of U.S. Monetary Policy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(6), pages 3373-3421, December.
    6. R. Jared DeLisle & Mengying Wang & H. Zafer Yüksel & Gulnara R. Zaynutdinova, 2024. "The effects of import competition on domestic financial markets: The role of limits-to-arbitrage," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 55(2), pages 212-234, March.
    7. Lodge, David & Pérez, Javier J. & Albrizio, Silvia & Everett, Mary & De Bandt, Olivier & Georgiadis, Georgios & Ca' Zorzi, Michele & Lastauskas, Povilas & Carluccio, Juan & Parrága, Susana & Carvalho,, 2021. "The implications of globalisation for the ECB monetary policy strategy," Occasional Paper Series 263, European Central Bank.
    8. (Jennifer) Wu, Szu-Yin & Chung, Kee H., 2019. "Corporate innovation, likelihood to be acquired, and takeover premiums," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    9. Esposito, Federico, 2022. "Demand risk and diversification through international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    10. Huang, Yi & Lin, Chen & Liu, Sibo & Tang, Heiwai, 2023. "Trade networks and firm value: Evidence from the U.S.-China trade war," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    11. Gong, Xu & Song, Yijie & Fu, Chengbo & Li, Huijing, 2023. "Climate risk and stock performance of fossil fuel companies: An international analysis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    12. Hassan, Ramin & Loualiche, Erik & Pecora, Alexandre R. & Ward, Colin, 2023. "International trade and the risk in bilateral exchange rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(2).
    13. Lee, Kuan-Hui & Yang, Cheol-Won, 2022. "The world price of tail risk," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    14. Tristan Jourde, 2022. "The rising interconnectedness of the insurance sector," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 89(2), pages 397-425, June.
    15. Malamud, Semyon & Malkhozov, Aytek, 2016. "Market Integration and Global Crashes," CEPR Discussion Papers 11468, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Taylor, Mark & Filippou, Ilias & Gozluklu, Arie & Nguyen, My, 2020. "U.S. Populist Rhetoric and Currency Returns," CEPR Discussion Papers 15054, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    17. Dumas, Bernard & Gabuniya, Tymur & Marston, Richard C., 2022. "Firms’ exposures to geographic risks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    18. Maarten Meeuwis & Jonathan A. Parker & Antoinette Schoar & Duncan Simester, 2022. "Belief Disagreement and Portfolio Choice," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(6), pages 3191-3247, December.
    19. Sriyanto Sriyanto & Muhammad Imran & Shiraz Khan & Khalid Zaman & Haroon ur Rashid Khan & ?Dadang Yunus Lutfiansyach? & Parmono Parmono & Abdul Wahab Pathath & Mohd Khata Jabor, 2023. "Harnessing the Power of Globalization: A Study of the Association between Globalization, Transportation Energy, and Insurance and Financial Services in Europe and Central Asia," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(2), pages 453-461, March.
    20. Po‐Hsuan Hsu & Huijun Wang & Wei Yang, 2022. "General Purpose Technologies as Systematic Risk in Global Stock Markets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(5), pages 1141-1173, August.
    21. Koch, Andrew & Panayides, Marios & Thomas, Shawn, 2021. "Common ownership and competition in product markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(1), pages 109-137.
    22. Lorenzo Bretscher, 2023. "From Local to Global: Offshoring and Asset Prices," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(3), pages 1420-1448, March.
    23. José Fillat & Stefania Garetto, 2021. "On the Origins of the Multinational Premium," Working Papers 21-20, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    24. Gerard Hoberg & S. Katie Moon, 2019. "The Offshoring Return Premium," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(6), pages 2876-2899, June.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F11 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Neoclassical Models of Trade
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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