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Trade Protection, Stock-Market Returns, and Welfare

Author

Listed:
  • Mary Amiti
  • Matthieu Gomez
  • Sang Hoon Kong
  • David Weinstein

Abstract

Tariff announcements made during the U.S.-China trade war had broad effects on financial variables. Announcements systematically decreased stock prices and raised nominal and real bond prices. We use a specific factors model to show that the welfare impact of the tariffs can be identified from the policy-induced movement in the present value of firm cash flows: a variable that can be estimated from financial data. Using this framework, we find that the U.S.-China trade war lowered U.S. welfare by three percent. We show that these cash flow movements can be further decomposed into market expectations about how tariffs affect current and future prices and productivity. Seen through the lens of our model, the market reactions to tariff announcements can be explained by expectations that tariffs lead to large, negative future price and TFP shocks that play an important role in dynamic, but not static, models.

Suggested Citation

  • Mary Amiti & Matthieu Gomez & Sang Hoon Kong & David Weinstein, 2021. "Trade Protection, Stock-Market Returns, and Welfare," NBER Working Papers 28758, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:28758
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    Cited by:

    1. Huang, Yi & Lin, Chen & Liu, Sibo & Tang, Heiwai, 2023. "Trade networks and firm value: Evidence from the U.S.-China trade war," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    2. Dmitry Matveev & Francisco Ruge-Murcia, 2024. "Tariffs and the Exchange Rate: Evidence from Twitter," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 72(3), pages 1185-1211, September.
    3. Carter, Colin A. & Steinbach, Sandro & Zhuang, Xiting, 2022. "Global Shipping Container Disruptions and U.S. Agricultural Exports," Working Papers 320397, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    4. Alan Feng & Haishi Li & Yulin Wang, 2023. "We Are All in the Same Boat: Cross-Border Spillovers of Climate Shocks through International Trade and Supply Chain," CESifo Working Paper Series 10402, CESifo.
    5. Benguria, Felipe & Choi, Jaerim & Swenson, Deborah L. & Xu, Mingzhi (Jimmy), 2022. "Anxiety or pain? The impact of tariffs and uncertainty on Chinese firms in the trade war," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    6. Carlomagno, Guillermo & Albagli, Elías, 2022. "Trade wars and asset prices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    7. Carter, Colin A. & Steinbach, Sandro & Zhuang, Xiting, 2022. "Global Container Trade Disruptions and U.S. Agricultural Exports," 2022 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Anaheim, California 322364, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    8. Shen, Haomin & Gao, Yuan & Cheng, Xiaoke & Wang, Qi, 2024. "The impact of the U.S. export controls on Chinese firms' innovation: Evidence from Chinese high-tech firms," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 95(PC).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions

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