IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ijrema/v35y2018i3p394-414.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Estimating time-varying parameters in brand choice models: A semiparametric approach

Author

Listed:
  • Guhl, Daniel
  • Baumgartner, Bernhard
  • Kneib, Thomas
  • Steiner, Winfried J.

Abstract

Nowadays, brand choice models are standard tools in quantitative marketing. In most applications, parameters representing brand intercepts and covariate effects are assumed to be constant over time. However, marketing theories, as well as the experience of marketing practitioners, suggest the existence of trends or short-term variations in particular parameters. Hence, having constant parameters over time is a highly restrictive assumption, which is not necessarily justified in a marketing context and may lead to biased inferences and misleading managerial insights.

Suggested Citation

  • Guhl, Daniel & Baumgartner, Bernhard & Kneib, Thomas & Steiner, Winfried J., 2018. "Estimating time-varying parameters in brand choice models: A semiparametric approach," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 394-414.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ijrema:v:35:y:2018:i:3:p:394-414
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ijresmar.2018.03.003
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167811618300120
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ijresmar.2018.03.003?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Baumgartner, Bernhard & Hruschka, Harald, 2005. "Allocation of catalogs to collective customers based on semiparametric response models," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 162(3), pages 839-849, May.
    2. Makoto Abe & Yasemin Boztug & Lutz Hildebrandt, 2004. "Investigating the competitive assumption of Multinomial Logit models of brand choice by nonparametric modeling," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 19(4), pages 635-657, December.
    3. Kamel Jedidi & Carl F. Mela & Sunil Gupta, 1999. "Managing Advertising and Promotion for Long-Run Profitability," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
    4. Oded Netzer & James M. Lattin & V. Srinivasan, 2008. "A Hidden Markov Model of Customer Relationship Dynamics," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 27(2), pages 185-204, 03-04.
    5. Prasad A. Naik & Murali K. Mantrala & Alan G. Sawyer, 1998. "Planning Media Schedules in the Presence of Dynamic Advertising Quality," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 17(3), pages 214-235.
    6. Harald J. van Heerde & Peter S. H. Leeflang & Dick R. Wittink, 2002. "How Promotions Work: Scan Pro-Based Evolutionary Model Building," Schmalenbach Business Review (sbr), LMU Munich School of Management, vol. 54(3), pages 198-220, July.
    7. Jin Gyo Kim & Ulrich Menzefricke & Fred M. Feinberg, 2007. "Capturing Flexible Heterogeneous Utility Curves: A Bayesian Spline Approach," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 53(2), pages 340-354, February.
    8. Gary J. Russell, 2014. "Brand Choice Models," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Russell S Winer & Scott A Neslin (ed.), THE HISTORY OF MARKETING SCIENCE, chapter 2, pages 19-46, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    9. Harry Haupt & Kathrin Kagerer & Winfried J. Steiner, 2014. "Smooth Quantile‐Based Modeling Of Brand Sales, Price And Promotional Effects From Retail Scanner Panels," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(6), pages 1007-1028, September.
    10. Abe, Makoto, 1999. "A Generalized Additive Model for Discrete-Choice Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 17(3), pages 271-284, July.
    11. Keane, Michael P, 1997. "Modeling Heterogeneity and State Dependence in Consumer Choice Behavior," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(3), pages 310-327, July.
    12. Lang, Stefan & Steiner, Winfried J. & Weber, Anett & Wechselberger, Peter, 2015. "Accommodating heterogeneity and nonlinearity in price effects for predicting brand sales and profits," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 246(1), pages 232-241.
    13. Erdem, Tulin & Broniarczyk, Susan & Charavarti, Dipankar & Kapferer, Jean-Noel & Keane, Michael & Roberts, John & Steenkamp, Jan-Benedict & Swait, Joffre & Zettelmeyer, Florian, 1999. "Brand Equity, Consumer Learning and Choice," MPRA Paper 53022, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Briesch, Richard A, et al, 1997. "A Comparative Analysis of Reference Price Models," Journal of Consumer Research, Journal of Consumer Research Inc., vol. 24(2), pages 202-214, September.
    15. Ramya Neelamegham & Pradeep K. Chintagunta, 2004. "Modeling and Forecasting the Sales of Technology Products," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 2(3), pages 195-232, September.
    16. Sungho Park & Sachin Gupta, 2011. "A Regime-Switching Model of Cyclical Category Buying," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 30(3), pages 469-480, 05-06.
    17. Leeflang, Peter S.H. & Bijmolt, Tammo H.A. & van Doorn, Jenny & Hanssens, Dominique M. & van Heerde, Harald J. & Verhoef, Peter C. & Wieringa, Jaap E., 2009. "Creating lift versus building the base: Current trends in marketing dynamics," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 13-20.
    18. Kim, Jin Gyo & Menzefricke, Ulrich & Feinberg, Fred M., 2005. "Modeling Parametric Evolution in a Random Utility Framework," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 23, pages 282-294, July.
    19. Bernhard Baumgartner & Daniel Guhl & Thomas Kneib & Winfried J. Steiner, 2018. "Flexible estimation of time-varying effects for frequently purchased retail goods: a modeling approach based on household panel data," OR Spectrum: Quantitative Approaches in Management, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research e.V., vol. 40(4), pages 837-873, October.
    20. Amman, Hans M. & Kendrick, David A., 2003. "Mitigation of the Lucas critique with stochastic control methods," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(11), pages 2035-2057.
    21. Leeflang, P.S.H. & Wittink, Dick R., 2000. "Building models for marketing decisions: past, present and future," Research Report 00F20, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
    22. Bernhard Baumgartner, 2003. "Measuring Changes In Brand Choice Behavior," Schmalenbach Business Review (sbr), LMU Munich School of Management, vol. 55(3), pages 242-256, July.
    23. Jean‐Pierre Dubé & Günter J. Hitsch & Peter E. Rossi, 2010. "State dependence and alternative explanations for consumer inertia," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 41(3), pages 417-445, September.
    24. Hruschka, Harald, 2002. "Market share analysis using semi-parametric attraction models," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 138(1), pages 212-225, April.
    25. Brezger, Andreas & Steiner, Winfried J., 2008. "Monotonic Regression Based on Bayesian PSplines: An Application to Estimating Price Response Functions From Store-Level Scanner Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 26, pages 90-104, January.
    26. repec:dgr:rugsom:00f20 is not listed on IDEAS
    27. Lemmens, A. & Croux, C. & Stremersch, S., 2012. "Dynamics in international market segmentation of new product growth," Other publications TiSEM 306086bd-670f-48d2-97d1-3, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    28. Bart J. Bronnenberg & Michael W. Kruger & Carl F. Mela, 2008. "—The IRI Marketing Data Set," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 27(4), pages 745-748, 07-08.
    29. Liran Einav & Ephraim Leibtag & Aviv Nevo, 2010. "Recording discrepancies in Nielsen Homescan data: Are they present and do they matter?," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 8(2), pages 207-239, June.
    30. Daniel Kahneman & Amos Tversky, 2013. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 6, pages 99-127, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    31. Kalyanaram, Gurumurthy & Little, John D C, 1994. "An Empirical Analysis of Latitude of Price Acceptance in Consumer Package Goods," Journal of Consumer Research, Journal of Consumer Research Inc., vol. 21(3), pages 408-418, December.
    32. Train,Kenneth E., 2009. "Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521747387, January.
    33. Kevin Lane Keller & Donald R. Lehmann, 2006. "Brands and Branding: Research Findings and Future Priorities," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 25(6), pages 740-759, 11-12.
    34. Umlauf, Nikolaus & Adler, Daniel & Kneib, Thomas & Lang, Stefan & Zeileis, Achim, 2015. "Structured Additive Regression Models: An R Interface to BayesX," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 63(i21).
    35. V. Kumar & JeeWon Brianna Choi & Mallik Greene, 2017. "Synergistic effects of social media and traditional marketing on brand sales: capturing the time-varying effects," Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, Springer, vol. 45(2), pages 268-288, March.
    36. Ruppert,David & Wand,M. P. & Carroll,R. J., 2003. "Semiparametric Regression," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521785167, January.
    37. Peter M. Guadagni & John D. C. Little, 1983. "A Logit Model of Brand Choice Calibrated on Scanner Data," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 2(3), pages 203-238.
    38. Anett Weber & Winfried J. Steiner & Stefan Lang, 2017. "A comparison of semiparametric and heterogeneous store sales models for optimal category pricing," OR Spectrum: Quantitative Approaches in Management, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research e.V., vol. 39(2), pages 403-445, March.
    39. Lemmens, Aurélie & Croux, Christophe & Stremersch, Stefan, 2012. "Dynamics in the international market segmentation of new product growth," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 81-92.
    40. Thomas Kneib & Bernhard Baumgartner & Winfried Steiner, 2007. "Semiparametric multinomial logit models for analysing consumer choice behaviour," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 91(3), pages 225-244, October.
    41. Brezger, Andreas & Kneib, Thomas & Lang, Stefan, 2005. "BayesX: Analyzing Bayesian Structural Additive Regression Models," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 14(i11).
    42. Makoto Abe, 1995. "A Nonparametric Density Estimation Method for Brand Choice Using Scanner Data," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 14(3), pages 300-325.
    43. Tülin Erdem & Michael P. Keane, 1996. "Decision-Making Under Uncertainty: Capturing Dynamic Brand Choice Processes in Turbulent Consumer Goods Markets," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 15(1), pages 1-20.
    44. Füsun Gönül & Kannan Srinivasan, 1993. "Modeling Multiple Sources of Heterogeneity in Multinomial Logit Models: Methodological and Managerial Issues," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 12(3), pages 213-229.
    45. Anil Kaul & Dick R. Wittink, 1995. "Empirical Generalizations About the Impact of Advertising on Price Sensitivity and Price," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 14(3_supplem), pages 151-160.
    46. Thomas S. Shively & Greg M. Allenby & Robert Kohn, 2000. "A Nonparametric Approach to Identifying Latent Relationships in Hierarchical Models," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 19(2), pages 149-162, November.
    47. Jean-Pierre Dubé & Günter J. Hitsch & Peter E. Rossi & Maria Ana Vitorino, 2008. "Category Pricing with State-Dependent Utility," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 27(3), pages 417-429, 05-06.
    48. Allenby, Greg M & Lenk, Peter J, 1995. "Reassessing Brand Loyalty, Price Sensitivity, and Merchandising Effects on Consumer Brand Choice," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 281-289, July.
    49. Sergio Meza & K. Sudhir, 2006. "Pass-through timing," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 4(4), pages 351-382, December.
    50. Gneiting, Tilmann & Raftery, Adrian E., 2007. "Strictly Proper Scoring Rules, Prediction, and Estimation," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 102, pages 359-378, March.
    51. Lillard, Lee A., 1993. "Simultaneous equations for hazards : Marriage duration and fertility timing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1-2), pages 189-217, March.
    52. Gurumurthy Kalyanaram & Russell S. Winer, 1995. "Empirical Generalizations from Reference Price Research," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 14(3_supplem), pages 161-169.
    53. Marion Schindler & Bernhard Baumgartner & Harald Hruschka, 2007. "Nonlinear Effects in Brand Choice Models: Comparing Heterogeneous Latent Class To Homogeneous Nonlinear Models," Schmalenbach Business Review (sbr), LMU Munich School of Management, vol. 59(2), pages 118-137, April.
    54. Holtrop, Niels & Wieringa, Jaap E. & Gijsenberg, Maarten J. & Verhoef, Peter C., 2017. "No future without the past? Predicting churn in the face of customer privacy," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 154-172.
    55. Kopalle, Praveen K. & Kannan, P.K. & Boldt, Lin Bao & Arora, Neeraj, 2012. "The impact of household level heterogeneity in reference price effects on optimal retailer pricing policies," Journal of Retailing, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 102-114.
    56. Mohamed Lachaab & Asim Ansari & Kamel Jedidi & Abdelwahed Trabelsi, 2006. "Modeling preference evolution in discrete choice models: A Bayesian state-space approach," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 57-81, March.
    57. P. B. Seetharaman, 2004. "Modeling Multiple Sources of State Dependence in Random Utility Models: A Distributed Lag Approach," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 23(2), pages 263-271, April.
    58. Praveen K. Kopalle & Carl F. Mela & Lawrence Marsh, 1999. "The Dynamic Effect of Discounting on Sales: Empirical Analysis and Normative Pricing Implications," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 18(3), pages 317-332.
    59. Briesch R.A. & Chintagunta P.K. & Matzkin R.L., 2002. "Semiparametric Estimation of Brand Choice Behavior," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 97, pages 973-982, December.
    60. Peter S.H. Leeflang & Harald J. van Heerde & Dick Wittink, 2002. "How Promotions Work: SCAN*PRO-Based Evolutionary Model Building," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm292, Yale School of Management.
    61. Stefan Stremersch & Aurélie Lemmens, 2009. "Sales Growth of New Pharmaceuticals Across the Globe: The Role of Regulatory Regimes," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 28(4), pages 690-708, 07-08.
    62. Frank M. Bass & Norris Bruce & Sumit Majumdar & B. P. S. Murthi, 2007. "Wearout Effects of Different Advertising Themes: A Dynamic Bayesian Model of the Advertising-Sales Relationship," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 26(2), pages 179-195, 03-04.
    63. Winer, Russell S, 1986. "A Reference Price Model of Brand Choice for Frequently Purchased Products," Journal of Consumer Research, Journal of Consumer Research Inc., vol. 13(2), pages 250-256, September.
    64. Ruppert,David & Wand,M. P. & Carroll,R. J., 2003. "Semiparametric Regression," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521780506, January.
    65. Oliver J. Rutz & Garrett P. Sonnier, 2011. "The Evolution of Internal Market Structure," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 30(2), pages 274-289, 03-04.
    66. Inyoung Kim & Noah D. Cohen & Raymond J. Carroll, 2003. "Semiparametric Regression Splines in Matched Case-Control Studies," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 59(4), pages 1158-1169, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bernhard Baumgartner & Daniel Guhl & Thomas Kneib & Winfried J. Steiner, 2018. "Flexible estimation of time-varying effects for frequently purchased retail goods: a modeling approach based on household panel data," OR Spectrum: Quantitative Approaches in Management, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research e.V., vol. 40(4), pages 837-873, October.
    2. Antonis A. Michis, 2023. "Retail distribution evaluation in brand-level sales response models," Journal of Marketing Analytics, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(3), pages 366-378, September.
    3. Ryan Dew & Nicolas Padilla & Anya Shchetkina, 2024. "Your MMM is Broken: Identification of Nonlinear and Time-varying Effects in Marketing Mix Models," Papers 2408.07678, arXiv.org.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bernhard Baumgartner & Daniel Guhl & Thomas Kneib & Winfried J. Steiner, 2018. "Flexible estimation of time-varying effects for frequently purchased retail goods: a modeling approach based on household panel data," OR Spectrum: Quantitative Approaches in Management, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research e.V., vol. 40(4), pages 837-873, October.
    2. Philipp Aschersleben & Winfried J. Steiner, 2022. "A semiparametric approach to estimating reference price effects in sales response models," Journal of Business Economics, Springer, vol. 92(4), pages 591-643, May.
    3. Weber, Anett & Steiner, Winfried J., 2021. "Modeling price response from retail sales: An empirical comparison of models with different representations of heterogeneity," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 294(3), pages 843-859.
    4. Guhl, Daniel, 2019. "Addressing endogeneity in aggregate logit models with time-varying parameters for optimal retail-pricing," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 277(2), pages 684-698.
    5. Lang, Stefan & Steiner, Winfried J. & Weber, Anett & Wechselberger, Peter, 2015. "Accommodating heterogeneity and nonlinearity in price effects for predicting brand sales and profits," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 246(1), pages 232-241.
    6. Hruschka, Harald & Fettes, Werner & Probst, Markus, 2004. "An empirical comparison of the validity of a neural net based multinomial logit choice model to alternative model specifications," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 159(1), pages 166-180, November.
    7. Harald Hruschka, 2007. "Using a heterogeneous multinomial probit model with a neural net extension to model brand choice," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 113-127.
    8. Tülin Erdem & Michael Katz & Baohong Sun, 2010. "A simple test for distinguishing between internal reference price theories," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 8(3), pages 303-332, September.
    9. Andrés Elberg & Pedro M. Gardete & Rosario Macera & Carlos Noton, 2019. "Dynamic effects of price promotions: field evidence, consumer search, and supply-side implications," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 1-58, March.
    10. Kappe, Eelco & Stadler Blank, Ashley & DeSarbo, Wayne S., 2018. "A random coefficients mixture hidden Markov model for marketing research," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 415-431.
    11. Ataman, B.M., 2007. "Managing brands," Other publications TiSEM 462dcbba-2ac1-46d1-a61c-f, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    12. Kopalle, Praveen K. & Kannan, P.K. & Boldt, Lin Bao & Arora, Neeraj, 2012. "The impact of household level heterogeneity in reference price effects on optimal retailer pricing policies," Journal of Retailing, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 102-114.
    13. Elshiewy, Ossama & Peschel, Anne O., 2022. "Internal reference price response across store formats," Journal of Retailing, Elsevier, vol. 98(3), pages 496-509.
    14. Ryan Dew & Nicolas Padilla & Anya Shchetkina, 2024. "Your MMM is Broken: Identification of Nonlinear and Time-varying Effects in Marketing Mix Models," Papers 2408.07678, arXiv.org.
    15. Nobuhiko Terui & Wirawan Dony Dahana, 2006. "Research Note—Estimating Heterogeneous Price Thresholds," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 25(4), pages 384-391, 07-08.
    16. Nicolau, Juan L., 2011. "Differentiated price loss aversion in destination choice: The effect of tourists’ cultural interest," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 1186-1195.
    17. Vincenzina Caputo & Jayson L Lusk & Rodolfo M Nayga, 2020. "Am I Getting a Good Deal? Reference‐DependentDecision Making When the Reference Price Is Uncertain," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 102(1), pages 132-153, January.
    18. Neumann, Nico & Böckenholt, Ulf, 2014. "A Meta-analysis of Loss Aversion in Product Choice," Journal of Retailing, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 182-197.
    19. van Oest, Rutger, 2013. "Why are Consumers Less Loss Averse in Internal than External Reference Prices?," Journal of Retailing, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 62-71.
    20. Murthi, B.P.S. & Rao, Ram C., 2012. "Price Awareness and Consumers’ Use of Deals in Brand Choice," Journal of Retailing, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 34-46.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ijrema:v:35:y:2018:i:3:p:394-414. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/international-journal-of-research-in-marketing/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.