Modeling future U.S. forest sector market and trade impacts of expansion in wood energy consumption

This paper describes an approach to modeling U.S. forest sector market and trade impacts of expansion in domestic wood energy consumption under hypothetical future U.S. wood biomass energy policy scenarios. The U.S. Forest Products Module (USFPM) was created to enhance the modeling of the U.S. forest sector within the Global Forest Products Model (GFPM), providing a more detailed representation of U.S. regional timber supply and wood residue markets. Scenarios were analyzed with USFPM/GFPM ranging from a baseline 48% increase to a 173% increase in annual U.S. consumption of wood for energy from 2006 to 2030, while consumption of fuelwood in other countries was assumed to increase by around 65% in aggregate. Results indicate that expansion in wood energy consumption across the range of scenarios may have little impact on U.S. forest sector markets because most of the expansion can be supplied by logging residues that are presently not being utilized and also mill residues that will increase in supply with projected expansion in wood product output in the decades ahead. However, analysis also suggests that forest sector markets could be disrupted by expansion in wood energy if much higher levels of wood energy consumption occur, or if projected recovery in housing demand and wood product output does not occur, or if more restrictive constraints or higher costs are imposed on wood residue utilization.