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Future perspectives of international bioenergy trade

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  • Matzenberger, Julian
  • Kranzl, Lukas
  • Tromborg, Eric
  • Junginger, Martin
  • Daioglou, Vassilis
  • Sheng Goh, Chun
  • Keramidas, Kimon

Abstract

According to the IEA World Energy Outlook 2012, primary demand for bioenergy will strongly increase up to the year 2035: the demand for biofuels and biomass for electricity is expected to triple. These changes will have an impact on the regional balance of demand and supply of bioenergy leading to both increasing trade flows and changes in trade patterns. The GFPM, TIMER and POLES models have been selected for a detailed comparison of scenarios and their impact on global bioenergy trade: In ambitious scenarios, 14–26% of global bioenergy demand is traded between regions in 2030. The model scenarios show a huge range of potential bioenergy trade: for solid biomass, in ambitious scenarios bioenergy trade ranges from 700Mt to more than 2,500Mt in 2030. For liquid biomass, the ambitious scenarios show a bioenergy trade in the range of 65 - >360Mt in 2030. Considering the currently very small share of internationally traded bioenergy, this would result in huge challenges and require tremendous changes in terms of production, pretreatment of biomass and development of logistic chains.

Suggested Citation

  • Matzenberger, Julian & Kranzl, Lukas & Tromborg, Eric & Junginger, Martin & Daioglou, Vassilis & Sheng Goh, Chun & Keramidas, Kimon, 2015. "Future perspectives of international bioenergy trade," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 926-941.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:rensus:v:43:y:2015:i:c:p:926-941
    DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2014.10.106
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    2. Alexandre C. Köberle & Vassilis Daioglou & Pedro Rochedo & André F. P. Lucena & Alexandre Szklo & Shinichiro Fujimori & Thierry Brunelle & Etsushi Kato & Alban Kitous & Detlef P. Vuuren & Roberto Scha, 2022. "Can global models provide insights into regional mitigation strategies? A diagnostic model comparison study of bioenergy in Brazil," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 170(1), pages 1-31, January.
    3. Lotte Visser & Ric Hoefnagels & Martin Junginger, 2020. "The Potential Contribution of Imported Biomass to Renewable Energy Targets in the EU–the Trade-off between Ambitious Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction Targets and Cost Thresholds," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-30, April.
    4. Kalt, Gerald & Kaufmann, Lisa & Kastner, Thomas & Krausmann, Fridolin, 2021. "Tracing Austria's biomass consumption to source countries: A product-level comparison between bioenergy, food and material," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    5. Mohd Alsaleh & Abdul Samad Abdul-Rahim, 2018. "The Economic Determinants of Bioenergy Trade Intensity in the EU-28: A Co-Integration Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-20, February.
    6. Panos, Evangelos & Kannan, Ramachandran, 2016. "The role of domestic biomass in electricity, heat and grid balancing markets in Switzerland," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 1120-1138.
    7. Andrzej Bochniak & Monika Stoma, 2021. "Estimating the Optimal Location for the Storage of Pellet Surplus," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(20), pages 1-16, October.
    8. Parvez, Ashak Mahmud & Lewis, Jonathan David & Afzal, Muhammad T., 2021. "Potential of industrial hemp (Cannabis sativa L.) for bioenergy production in Canada: Status, challenges and outlook," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    9. Vassilis Daioglou & Matteo Muratori & Patrick Lamers & Shinichiro Fujimori & Alban Kitous & Alexandre C. Köberle & Nico Bauer & Martin Junginger & Etsushi Kato & Florian Leblanc & Silvana Mima & Marsh, 2020. "Implications of climate change mitigation strategies on international bioenergy trade," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(3), pages 1639-1658, December.
    10. Hoefnagels, Ric & Resch, Gustav & Junginger, Martin & Faaij, André, 2014. "International and domestic uses of solid biofuels under different renewable energy support scenarios in the European Union," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 139-157.
    11. Alsaleh, Mohd & Abdul-Rahim, A.S. & Mohd-Shahwahid, H.O., 2017. "An empirical and forecasting analysis of the bioenergy market in the EU28 region: Evidence from a panel data simultaneous equation model," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 1123-1137.
    12. Mansuy, Nicolas & Thiffault, Evelyne & Lemieux, Sébastien & Manka, Francis & Paré, David & Lebel, Luc, 2015. "Sustainable biomass supply chains from salvage logging of fire-killed stands: A case study for wood pellet production in eastern Canada," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 62-73.
    13. Wu, Yazhen & Deppermann, Andre & Havlík, Petr & Frank, Stefan & Ren, Ming & Zhao, Hao & Ma, Lin & Fang, Chen & Chen, Qi & Dai, Hancheng, 2023. "Global land-use and sustainability implications of enhanced bioenergy import of China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 336(C).
    14. Jule Schulze & Karin Frank & Joerg A Priess & Markus A Meyer, 2016. "Assessing Regional-Scale Impacts of Short Rotation Coppices on Ecosystem Services by Modeling Land-Use Decisions," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(4), pages 1-21, April.
    15. Ji, Xi & Liu, Yifang & Meng, Jing & Wu, Xudong, 2020. "Global supply chain of biomass use and the shift of environmental welfare from primary exploiters to final consumers," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 276(C).
    16. Mandley, S.J. & Daioglou, V. & Junginger, H.M. & van Vuuren, D.P. & Wicke, B., 2020. "EU bioenergy development to 2050," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    17. Stefan Dragos Cirstea & Andreea Cirstea & Irimie Emil Popa & Gabriel Radu, 2019. "The Role of Bioenergy in Transition to a Sustainable Bioeconomy – Study on EU Countries," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 21(50), pages 1-75, February.
    18. Barrette, Julie & Thiffault, Evelyne & Achim, Alexis & Junginger, Martin & Pothier, David & De Grandpré, Louis, 2017. "A financial analysis of the potential of dead trees from the boreal forest of eastern Canada to serve as feedstock for wood pellet export," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 198(C), pages 410-425.
    19. repec:aud:audfin:v:21:y:2019:i:50:p:75 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Visser, L. & Hoefnagels, R. & Junginger, M., 2020. "Wood pellet supply chain costs – A review and cost optimization analysis," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    21. Zahraee, Seyed Mojib & Rahimpour Golroudbary, Saeed & Shiwakoti, Nirajan & Stasinopoulos, Peter, 2021. "Particle-Gaseous pollutant emissions and cost of global biomass supply chain via maritime transportation: Full-scale synergy model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 303(C).

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