IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/forpol/v34y2013icp17-29.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Studying the future of the forest sector: Review and implications for long-term outlook studies

Author

Listed:
  • Hurmekoski, Elias
  • Hetemäki, Lauri

Abstract

Outlook studies have long traditions in the forest sector – they have been conducted regularly since the 1950s. Until very recently, the approaches used in these studies have remained relatively unchanged. However, the global forest sector has been faced with major structural changes and its operating environment has become ever more complex and interlinked with other sectors. The aim of this article is to review the forest sector outlook approaches in face of these changes, and to analyze how well they have been able to capture and project the changes. Moreover, we raise the question of whether they seem informative enough for the purposes of today's decision makers and other stakeholders. The results indicate that the existing outlook studies have not been able to sufficiently capture the structural changes in global paper markets, and it may be that they have difficulties in considering the possible structural changes in other markets as well. In order to assess the changes occurring in the operating environment more systematically, and to better meet the needs of policy-makers and stakeholders, there are potential advantages in complementing the current modeling approach dominant in the forest sector with other methods from the field of foresight.

Suggested Citation

  • Hurmekoski, Elias & Hetemäki, Lauri, 2013. "Studying the future of the forest sector: Review and implications for long-term outlook studies," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 17-29.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:forpol:v:34:y:2013:i:c:p:17-29
    DOI: 10.1016/j.forpol.2013.05.005
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S138993411300097X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.forpol.2013.05.005?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Schwarzbauer, Peter & Weinfurter, Stefan & Stern, Tobias & Koch, Sebastian, 2013. "Economic crises: Impacts on the forest-based sector and wood-based energy use in Austria," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 13-22.
    2. Buongiorno, Joseph & Zhang, Dali & Rytkonen, Antti & Zhang, Yibing & Zhu, Shushuai & Tomberlin, David, 1998. "Long-Term Forecasting Of International Forest Product Markets: The Gfpm Model And Implications For Europe," Conference Papers 14478, University of Minnesota, Center for International Food and Agricultural Policy.
    3. Robinson, John Bridger, 1982. "Energy backcasting A proposed method of policy analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 337-344, December.
    4. Uppenberg, Kristian & Strauss, Hubert, 2010. "Innovation and productivity growth in the EU services sector," EIB Economic Surveys, European Investment Bank, number 2, sept-dec.
    5. Ricardo J. Caballero, 2010. "Macroeconomics after the Crisis: Time to Deal with the Pretense-of-Knowledge Syndrome," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 24(4), pages 85-102, Fall.
    6. Moiseyev, Alexander & Solberg, Birger & Kallio, A. Maarit I. & Lindner, Marcus, 2011. "An economic analysis of the potential contribution of forest biomass to the EU RES target and its implications for the EU forest industries," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 197-213, April.
    7. Lecocq, Franck & Caurla, Sylvain & Delacote, Philippe & Barkaoui, Ahmed & Sauquet, Alexandre, 2011. "Paying for forest carbon or stimulating fuelwood demand? Insights from the French Forest Sector Model," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 157-168, April.
    8. Clements,Michael & Hendry,David, 1998. "Forecasting Economic Time Series," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521632423, September.
    9. Alexandre Sauquet & Ahmed Barkaoui & Sylvain Caurla & Philippe Delacote & Franck Lecocq, 2011. "Paying for forest carbon or stimulating fuel wood demand? Insights from the French Forest Sector Model," Post-Print halshs-00602112, HAL.
    10. Granger, Clive W.J. & Jeon, Yongil, 2007. "Long-term forecasting and evaluation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 539-551.
    11. Gene M. Grossman & Esteban Rossi-Hansberg, 2008. "Trading Tasks: A Simple Theory of Offshoring," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(5), pages 1978-1997, December.
    12. Zhu, Shushuai & Buongiorno, Joseph & Brooks, David J., 2001. "Effects of accelerated tariff liberalization on the forest products sector: a global modeling approach," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 57-78, April.
    13. Cuenot, François, 2009. "CO2 emissions from new cars and vehicle weight in Europe; How the EU regulation could have been avoided and how to reach it?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 3832-3842, October.
    14. Kangas, Hanna-Liisa & Lintunen, Jussi & Pohjola, Johanna & Hetemäki, Lauri & Uusivuori, Jussi, 2011. "Investments into forest biorefineries under different price and policy structures," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1165-1176.
    15. Wieland, Volker & Cwik, Tobias & Müller, Gernot J. & Schmidt, Sebastian & Wolters, Maik, 2012. "A new comparative approach to macroeconomic modeling and policy analysis," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 523-541.
    16. Lee, Timothy & Yao, Runming, 2013. "Incorporating technology buying behaviour into UK-based long term domestic stock energy models to provide improved policy analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 363-372.
    17. Ince, Peter J. & Kramp, Andrew D. & Skog, Kenneth E. & Yoo, Do-il & Sample, V. Alaric, 2011. "Modeling future U.S. forest sector market and trade impacts of expansion in wood energy consumption," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 142-156, April.
    18. Roy Pearson, 2011. "Using the International Futures Global Modeling System (Ifs) for Alternative Scenarios by the Numbers," Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, International Institute of Forecasters, issue 22, pages 13-19, Summer.
    19. Ahlroth, Sofia & Hojer, Mattias, 2007. "Sustainable energy prices and growth: Comparing macroeconomic and backcasting scenarios," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(4), pages 722-731, September.
    20. Buongiorno, Joseph, 1996. "Forest sector modeling: a synthesis of econometrics, mathematical programming, and system dynamics methods," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 329-343, September.
    21. Jyrki Ali-Yrkkö & Petri Rouvinen & Timo Seppälä & Pekka Ylä-Anttila, 2011. "Who Captures Value in Global Supply Chains? Case Nokia N95 Smartphone," Journal of Industry, Competition and Trade, Springer, vol. 11(3), pages 263-278, September.
    22. Brown, Marilyn A. & Baek, Youngsun, 2010. "The forest products industry at an energy/climate crossroads," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(12), pages 7665-7675, December.
    23. Sjølie, Hanne K. & Latta, Gregory S. & Adams, Darius M. & Solberg, Birger, 2011. "Impacts of agent information assumptions in forest sector modeling," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 169-184, April.
    24. Peter J. Ince & Andrew Kramp & Kenneth E. Skog, 2012. "Evaluating Economic Impacts of Expanded Global Wood Energy Consumption with the USFPM/GFPM Model," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 60(2), pages 211-237, June.
    25. Ma, Tieju & Nakamori, Yoshiteru, 2009. "Modeling technological change in energy systems – From optimization to agent-based modeling," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(7), pages 873-879.
    26. Schwarzbauer, Peter & Rametsteiner, Ewald, 2001. "The impact of SFM-certification on forest product markets in Western Europe -- an analysis using a forest sector simulation model," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(3-4), pages 241-256, July.
    27. Tromborg, Erik & Buongiorno, Joseph & Solberg, Birger, 2000. "The global timber market: implications of changes in economic growth, timber supply, and technological trends," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 53-69, May.
    28. Nagy, Karoly & Körmendi, Krisztina, 2012. "Use of renewable energy sources in light of the “New Energy Strategy for Europe 2011–2020”," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 393-399.
    29. Mattila, Tuomas & Antikainen, Riina, 2011. "Backcasting sustainable freight transport systems for Europe in 2050," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1241-1248, March.
    30. Moyer, Jonathan D. & Hughes, Barry B., 2012. "ICTs: Do they contribute to increased carbon emissions?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 79(5), pages 919-931.
    31. Cantore, Nicola, 2012. "Sustainability of the energy sector in the Mediterranean region," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 423-430.
    32. Baldwin, Richard, 2012. "Trade and industrialisation after globalisation?s 2nd unbundling: How building and joining a supply chain are different and why," CEPR Discussion Papers 8768, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Miguel Riviere & Sylvain Caurla & Philippe Delacote, 2020. "Evolving Integrated Models From Narrower Economic Tools : the Example of Forest Sector Models," Post-Print hal-02512330, HAL.
    2. Latta, Gregory S. & Sjølie, Hanne K. & Solberg, Birger, 2013. "A review of recent developments and applications of partial equilibrium models of the forest sector," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 350-360.
    3. Miguel Riviere & Sylvain Caurla, 2020. "Representations of the Forest Sector in Economic Models [Les représentations du secteur forestier dans les modèles économiques]," Post-Print hal-03088084, HAL.
    4. Latta, Gregory S. & Baker, Justin S. & Beach, Robert H. & Rose, Steven K. & McCarl, Bruce A., 2013. "A multi-sector intertemporal optimization approach to assess the GHG implications of U.S. forest and agricultural biomass electricity expansion," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 361-383.
    5. Miguel RIVIERE & Sylvain CAURLA, 2018. "Integrating non-timber objectives into bio-economic models of the forest sector: a review of recent innovations and current shortcomings," Working Papers of BETA 2018-26, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    6. Kallio, A.M.I. & Salminen, O. & Sievänen, R., 2013. "Sequester or substitute—Consequences of increased production of wood based energy on the carbon balance in Finland," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 402-415.
    7. Galik, Christopher S. & Abt, Robert C. & Latta, Gregory & Vegh, Tibor, 2015. "The environmental and economic effects of regional bioenergy policy in the southeastern U.S," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 335-346.
    8. Lauri, Pekka & Kallio, A. Maarit I. & Schneider, Uwe A., 2012. "Price of CO2 emissions and use of wood in Europe," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 123-131.
    9. Kallio, A.M.I. & Salminen, O. & Sievänen, R., 2016. "Forests in the Finnish low carbon scenarios," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 45-62.
    10. Alice Favero & Robert Mendelsohn, 2013. "Evaluating the Global Role of Woody Biomass as a Mitigation Strategy," Working Papers 2013.37, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    11. Caurla, Sylvain & Bertrand, Vincent & Delacote, Philippe & Le Cadre, Elodie, 2018. "Heat or power: How to increase the use of energy wood at the lowest cost?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 85-103.
    12. Johnston, Craig M.T. & Kooten, G. Cornelis van, 2014. "Carbon Neutrality of Hardwood and Softwood Biomass: Issues of Temporal Preference," Working Papers 190592, University of Victoria, Resource Economics and Policy.
    13. Lauri, Pekka & Havlík, Petr & Kindermann, Georg & Forsell, Nicklas & Böttcher, Hannes & Obersteiner, Michael, 2014. "Woody biomass energy potential in 2050," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 19-31.
    14. Stern, Tobias & Ledl, Caroline & Braun, Martin & Hesser, Franziska & Schwarzbauer, Peter, 2015. "Biorefineries' impacts on the Austrian forest sector: A system dynamics approach," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 311-326.
    15. Sergent, Arnaud, 2014. "Sector-based political analysis of energy transition: Green shift in the forest policy regime in France," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 491-500.
    16. Lochhead, Kyle & Ghafghazi, Saeed & Havlik, Petr & Forsell, Nicklas & Obersteiner, Michael & Bull, Gary & Mabee, Warren, 2016. "Price trends and volatility scenarios for designing forest sector transformation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 184-191.
    17. Mathieu, Valentin & Roda, Jean-Marc, 2023. "A meta-analysis on wood trade flow modeling concepts," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    18. Johnston, Craig M.T. & Cornelis van Kooten, G., 2015. "Back to the past: Burning wood to save the globe," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 185-193.
    19. Daigneault, Adam & Johnston, Craig & Korosuo, Anu & Baker, Justin S. & Forsell, Nicklas & Prestemon, Jeffrey P. & Abt, Robert C., 2019. "Developing Detailed Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) Narratives for the Global Forest Sector," Journal of Forest Economics, now publishers, vol. 34(1-2), pages 7-45, August.
    20. Guo, Jinggang & Gong, Peichen, 2019. "Assessing the impacts of rising fuelwood demand on Swedish forest sector: An intertemporal optimization approach," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 91-98.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:forpol:v:34:y:2013:i:c:p:17-29. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/forpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.