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The impacts of the Brazilian NDC and their contribution to the Paris agreement on climate change

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  • Gurgel, Angelo C.
  • Paltsev, Sergey
  • Breviglieri, Gustavo Velloso

Abstract

This paper measures the economic impacts of Brazil's climate mitigation strategies contained in its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). To do so, we employ the computable general equilibrium MIT Economic Projection and Policy Analysis model and simulate alternative carbon pricing scenarios (sectoral versus economy-wide carbon markets), set to achieve the country's overall emissions targets announced under the Paris Agreement. The results show relatively cheap emissions reductions from land-use changes and agriculture in the short run: the cost of the Brazilian NDC is predicted to be only 0.7 per cent of GDP in 2030. Further efforts to reduce carbon emissions beyond 2030 would require policy changes, since all the potential emissions reductions from deforestation would be finished and the capacity to expand renewable energy sources would be constrained. In this case, an economy-wide carbon pricing system would help substantially to avoid higher compliance costs.

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  • Gurgel, Angelo C. & Paltsev, Sergey & Breviglieri, Gustavo Velloso, 2019. "The impacts of the Brazilian NDC and their contribution to the Paris agreement on climate change," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(4), pages 395-412, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:endeec:v:24:y:2019:i:04:p:395-412_00
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    1. Ceecee Holz & Guy Cunliffe & Kennedy Mbeva & Pieter W. Pauw & Harald Winkler, 2023. "Tempering and enabling ambition: how equity is considered in domestic processes preparing NDCs," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 271-292, September.
    2. Carvalho, N.B. & Berrêdo Viana, D. & Muylaert de Araújo, M.S. & Lampreia, J. & Gomes, M.S.P. & Freitas, M.A.V., 2020. "How likely is Brazil to achieve its NDC commitments in the energy sector? A review on Brazilian low-carbon energy perspectives," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    3. Diniz Oliveira, Thais & Costa Gurgel, Angelo & Tonry, Steve, 2021. "Potential trading partners of a brazilian emissions trading scheme: The effects of linking with a developed region (Europe) and two developing regions (Latin America and China)," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    4. Alvim, Augusto & Sanguinet, Eduardo, 2020. "Paris Agreement on Climate Change and the Possible Impacts on Brazilian Meat and Dairy Sectors," Conference papers 333147, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    5. William Wills & Emilio Lebre La Rovere & Carolina Grottera & Giovanna Ferrazzo Naspolini & Gaëlle Le Treut & F. Ghersi & Julien Lefèvre & Carolina Burle Schmidt Dubeux, 2022. "Economic and social effectiveness of carbon pricing schemes to meet Brazilian NDC targets," Post-Print hal-03500923, HAL.
    6. Peng, Huaxi & Kan, Siyi & Meng, Jing & Li, Shuping & Cui, Can & Tan, Chang & Wang, Zhenyu & Wen, Quan & Guan, Dabo, 2024. "Emission accounting and drivers in South American countries," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 358(C).
    7. Augusto Mussi Alvim & Eduardo Rodrigues Sanguinet, 2021. "Climate Change Policies and the Carbon Tax Effect on Meat and Dairy Industries in Brazil," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(16), pages 1-20, August.
    8. Gianetti, Giovani William & Filho, Joaquim Bento de Souza Ferreira, 2024. "Pasture recovery, emissions, and the Brazilian Paris agreement commitments," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    9. Goes, George Vasconcelos & Schmitz Gonçalves, Daniel Neves & de Almeida D’Agosto, Márcio & de Mello Bandeira, Renata Albergaria & Grottera, Carolina, 2020. "Transport-energy-environment modeling and investment requirements from Brazilian commitments," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 303-311.
    10. Pedro Henrique Campello Torres & Demerval Aparecido Gonçalves & Flávia Mendes de Almeida Collaço & Kauê Lopes dos Santos & Katia Canil & Wilson Cabral de Sousa Júnior & Pedro Roberto Jacobi, 2020. "Vulnerability of the São Paulo Macro Metropolis to Droughts and Natural Disasters: Local to Regional Climate Risk Assessments and Policy Responses," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-16, December.
    11. Grottera, Carolina & Naspolini, Giovanna Ferrazzo & La Rovere, Emilio Lèbre & Schmitz Gonçalves, Daniel Neves & Nogueira, Tainan de Farias & Hebeda, Otto & Dubeux, Carolina Burle Schmidt & Goes, Georg, 2022. "Energy policy implications of carbon pricing scenarios for the Brazilian NDC implementation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    12. Hamdy Abdelaty & Daniel Weiss & Delia Mangelkramer, 2023. "Climate Policy in Developing Countries: Analysis of Climate Mitigation and Adaptation Measures in Egypt," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-20, June.
    13. Francisco, Adriana Xavier & Gurgel, Angelo, 2020. "Costs of Reducing Deforestation In Brazil: a General Equilibrium Approach," Conference papers 333161, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    14. Weitzel, Matthias & Vandyck, Toon & Rey Los Santos, Luis & Tamba, Marie & Temursho, Umed & Wojtowicz, Krzysztof, 2023. "A comprehensive socio-economic assessment of EU climate policy pathways," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 204(PA).

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