IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finana/v19y2010i5p342-350.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Bayesian extensions to Diebold-Li term structure model

Author

Listed:
  • Laurini, Márcio Poletti
  • Hotta, Luiz Koodi

Abstract

This paper proposes a statistical model to adjust, interpolate, and forecast the term structure of interest rates. The model is based on the extensions for the term structure model of interest rates proposed by Diebold and Li (2006), through a Bayesian estimation using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). The proposed extensions involve the use of a more flexible parametric form for the yield curve, allowing all the parameters to vary in time using a structure of latent factors, and the addition of a stochastic volatility structure to control the presence of conditional heteroskedasticity observed in the interest rates. The Bayesian estimation enables the exact distribution of the estimators in finite samples, and as a by-product, the estimation enables obtaining the distribution of forecasts of the term structure of interest rates. Unlike some econometric models of term structure, the methodology developed does not require a pre-interpolation of the yield curve. The model is fitted to the daily data of the term structure of interest rates implicit in SWAP DI-PRÉ contracts traded in the Mercantile and Futures Exchange (BM&F) in Brazil. The results are compared with the other models in terms of fitting and forecasts.

Suggested Citation

  • Laurini, Márcio Poletti & Hotta, Luiz Koodi, 2010. "Bayesian extensions to Diebold-Li term structure model," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 342-350, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:19:y:2010:i:5:p:342-350
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1057-5219(10)00057-8
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Shea, Gary S., 1984. "Pitfalls in Smoothing Interest Rate Term Structure Data: Equilibrium Models and Spline Approximations," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(3), pages 253-269, September.
    2. Diebold, Francis X. & Li, Canlin & Yue, Vivian Z., 2008. "Global yield curve dynamics and interactions: A dynamic Nelson-Siegel approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 351-363, October.
    3. Jens H. E. Christensen & Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2009. "An arbitrage-free generalized Nelson--Siegel term structure model," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 12(3), pages 33-64, November.
    4. McCulloch, J Huston, 1971. "Measuring the Term Structure of Interest Rates," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 44(1), pages 19-31, January.
    5. John C. Cox & Jonathan E. Ingersoll Jr. & Stephen A. Ross, 2005. "A Theory Of The Term Structure Of Interest Rates," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Sudipto Bhattacharya & George M Constantinides (ed.), Theory Of Valuation, chapter 5, pages 129-164, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    6. Linton, Oliver & Mammen, Enno & Nielsen, Jans Perch & Tanggaard, Carsten, 2001. "Yield curve estimation by kernel smoothing methods," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 185-223, November.
    7. Diebold, Francis X. & Li, Canlin, 2006. "Forecasting the term structure of government bond yields," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 130(2), pages 337-364, February.
    8. Hull, John & White, Alan, 1990. "Pricing Interest-Rate-Derivative Securities," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(4), pages 573-592.
    9. David Heath & Robert Jarrow & Andrew Morton, 2008. "Bond Pricing And The Term Structure Of Interest Rates: A New Methodology For Contingent Claims Valuation," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 13, pages 277-305, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    10. Darrell Duffie & Rui Kan, 1996. "A Yield‐Factor Model Of Interest Rates," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(4), pages 379-406, October.
    11. Christensen, Jens H.E. & Diebold, Francis X. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2011. "The affine arbitrage-free class of Nelson-Siegel term structure models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 164(1), pages 4-20, September.
    12. Huse, Cristian, 2011. "Term structure modelling with observable state variables," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 3240-3252.
    13. Brennan, Michael J. & Schwartz, Eduardo S., 1979. "A continuous time approach to the pricing of bonds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 133-155, July.
    14. Michael J. Brennan and Eduardo S. Schwartz., 1979. "A Continuous-Time Approach to the Pricing of Bonds," Research Program in Finance Working Papers 85, University of California at Berkeley.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Matsumura, Marco & Moreira, Ajax & Vicente, José, 2011. "Forecasting the yield curve with linear factor models," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 237-243.
    2. M�rcio Poletti Laurini, 2014. "Dynamic functional data analysis with non-parametric state space models," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(1), pages 142-163, January.
    3. Vahidin Jeleskovic & Anastasios Demertzidis, 2018. "Comparing different methods for the estimation of interbank intraday yield curves," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201839, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    4. Renata Tavanielli & Márcio Laurini, 2023. "Yield Curve Models with Regime Changes: An Analysis for the Brazilian Interest Rate Market," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-28, June.
    5. Dang-Nguyen, Stéphane & Le Caillec, Jean-Marc & Hillion, Alain, 2014. "The deterministic shift extension and the affine dynamic Nelson–Siegel model," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 402-417.
    6. Vadim Kaushanskiy & Victor Lapshin, 2016. "A nonparametric method for term structure fitting with automatic smoothing," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(58), pages 5654-5666, December.
    7. Márcio Poletti Laurini & Armênio Westin Neto, 2014. "Arbitrage in the Term Structure of Interest Rates: a Bayesian Approach," International Econometric Review (IER), Econometric Research Association, vol. 6(2), pages 77-99, September.
    8. Tunaru, Diana, 2017. "Gaussian estimation and forecasting of the U.K. yield curve with multi-factor continuous-time models," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 119-129.
    9. Daniel R. Kowal & Antonio Canale, 2021. "Semiparametric Functional Factor Models with Bayesian Rank Selection," Papers 2108.02151, arXiv.org, revised May 2022.
    10. Caldeira, João F. & Laurini, Márcio P. & Portugal, Marcelo S., 2010. "Bayesian Inference Applied to Dynamic Nelson-Siegel Model with Stochastic Volatility," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 30(1), October.
    11. Aryo Sasongko & Cynthia Afriani Utama & Buddi Wibowo & Zaäfri Ananto Husodo, 2019. "Modifying Hybrid Optimisation Algorithms to Construct Spot Term Structure of Interest Rates and Proposing a Standardised Assessment," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 54(3), pages 957-1003, October.
    12. repec:erh:journl:v:6:y:2014:i:2:p:78-100 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Sourish Das, 2018. "Modeling Nelson-Siegel Yield Curve using Bayesian Approach," Papers 1809.06077, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2018.
    14. Tunaru, Radu & Zheng, Teng, 2017. "Parameter estimation risk in asset pricing and risk management: A Bayesian approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 80-93.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Giuseppe Arbia & Michele Di Marcantonio, 2015. "Forecasting Interest Rates Using Geostatistical Techniques," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 3(4), pages 1-28, November.
    2. Lin, Bing-Huei, 1999. "Fitting the term structure of interest rates for Taiwanese government bonds," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 9(3-4), pages 331-352, November.
    3. Oldrich Alfons Vasicek & Francisco Venegas-Martínez, 2021. "Models of the Term Structure of Interest Rates: Review, Trends, and Perspectives," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 16(2), pages 1-28, Abril - J.
    4. Leo Krippner, 2009. "A theoretical foundation for the Nelson and Siegel class of yield curve models," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2009/10, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    5. Siem Jan Koopman & Max I.P. Mallee & Michel van der Wel, 2007. "Analyzing the Term Structure of Interest Rates using the Dynamic Nelson-Siegel Model with Time-Varying Parameters," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 07-095/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    6. Oldrich Alfons Vasicek & Francisco Venegas-Martínez, 2021. "Modelos de la estructura de plazos de las tasas de interés: Revisión, tendencias y perspectivas," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 16(2), pages 1-28, Abril - J.
    7. Emma Berenguer-Carceles & Ricardo Gimeno & Juan M. Nave, 2012. "Estimation of the Term Structure of Interest Rates: Methodology and Applications," Working Papers 12.06, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Financial Economics and Accounting (former Department of Business Administration).
    8. Tunaru, Diana, 2017. "Gaussian estimation and forecasting of the U.K. yield curve with multi-factor continuous-time models," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 119-129.
    9. Eduardo Mineo & Airlane Pereira Alencar & Marcelo Moura & Antonio Elias Fabris, 2020. "Forecasting the Term Structure of Interest Rates with Dynamic Constrained Smoothing B-Splines," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-14, April.
    10. Christopher M. Bilson & Timothy J. Brailsford & Luke J. Sullivan & Sirimon Treepongkaruna, 2008. "Pricing Bonds in the Australian Market," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 33(1), pages 123-143, June.
    11. Oldrich Alfons Vasicek & Francisco Venegas-Martínez, 2021. "Modelos de la estructura de plazos de las tasas de interés: Revisión, tendencias y perspectivas," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 16(2), pages 1-28, Abril - J.
    12. Ranik Raaen Wahlstrøm & Florentina Paraschiv & Michael Schürle, 2022. "A Comparative Analysis of Parsimonious Yield Curve Models with Focus on the Nelson-Siegel, Svensson and Bliss Versions," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 59(3), pages 967-1004, March.
    13. Bjork, Tomas, 2009. "Arbitrage Theory in Continuous Time," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 3, number 9780199574742.
    14. Fan, Longzhen & Johansson, Anders C., 2010. "China's official rates and bond yields," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 996-1007, May.
    15. Suresh M. Sundaresan, 2000. "Continuous‐Time Methods in Finance: A Review and an Assessment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1569-1622, August.
    16. Lutz Kruschwitz, 2018. "Das Problem der Anschlussverzinsung," Schmalenbach Journal of Business Research, Springer, vol. 70(1), pages 9-45, March.
    17. repec:wyi:journl:002108 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Bing-Huei Lin, 2002. "Fitting term structure of interest rates using B-splines: the case of Taiwanese Government bonds," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(1), pages 57-75.
    19. Renata Tavanielli & Márcio Laurini, 2023. "Yield Curve Models with Regime Changes: An Analysis for the Brazilian Interest Rate Market," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-28, June.
    20. Gonzalo Cortazar & Eduardo S. Schwartz & Lorenzo F. Naranjo, 2007. "Term-structure estimation in markets with infrequent trading," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(4), pages 353-369.
    21. Nagy, Krisztina, 2020. "Term structure estimation with missing data: Application for emerging markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 347-360.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:19:y:2010:i:5:p:342-350. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620166 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.