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Forecasting the yield curve with linear factor models

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  • Matsumura, Marco
  • Moreira, Ajax
  • Vicente, José

Abstract

In this work we compare the interest rate forecasting performance of a broad class of linear models. The models are estimated through a MCMC procedure with data from the US and Brazilian markets. We show that a simple parametric specification has the best predictive power, but it does not outperform the random walk. We also find that macroeconomic variables and no-arbitrage conditions have little effect to improve the out-of-sample fit, while a financial variable (Stock Index) increases the forecasting accuracy.

Suggested Citation

  • Matsumura, Marco & Moreira, Ajax & Vicente, José, 2011. "Forecasting the yield curve with linear factor models," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 237-243.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:20:y:2011:i:5:p:237-243
    DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2011.05.003
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    3. Frank J. Fabozzi & Francesco A. Fabozzi & Diana Tunaru, 2023. "A comparison of multi-factor term structure models for interbank rates," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 61(1), pages 323-356, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Yield curve forecasting; Macroeconomic variables; Affine models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling

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