A theory of change evaluation of doctoral admission methods: A case study of a Chinese university

In response to China's incentive for "connotative development" in doctoral education, universities are actively fostering creative and innovative PhD candidates with enhanced research productivity and superior educational quality. A Chinese university, aligning with this objective, has initiated significant reforms in its doctoral admission methods, introducing a new type of student and altering the proportion of existing ones. Recognizing the complexity and uncertainty inherent in the doctoral admission process, this theory-based study employs a Theory of Change framework to systematically evaluate the immediate, intermediate, and long-term outcomes of this university's interventions. It assesses the transformative impact of these changes by integrating secondary data with qualitative insights, including focus group discussions with twelve students and semi-structured interviews with three supervisors. The study reveals that while this university has made substantial progress in achieving short-term goals, these reforms have not uniformly benefited all student categories, presenting distinct challenges and opportunities for stakeholders. Consequently, it advocates for diversifying the student composition and emphasizes inclusive pedagogical strategies to facilitate high-quality doctoral education. Importantly, this research extends beyond this university, promoting a balanced mix of student profiles and a holistic approach to shaping effective policies and practices within doctoral admission, essential for navigating global competition.