IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v80y2015icp239-250.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Projecting changes in annual hydropower generation using regional runoff data: An assessment of the United States federal hydropower plants

Author

Listed:
  • Kao, Shih-Chieh
  • Sale, Michael J.
  • Ashfaq, Moetasim
  • Uria Martinez, Rocio
  • Kaiser, Dale P.
  • Wei, Yaxing
  • Diffenbaugh, Noah S.

Abstract

Federal hydropower plants account for approximately half of installed US conventional hydropower capacity, and are an important part of the national renewable energy portfolio. Utilizing the strong linear relationship between the US Geological Survey WaterWatch runoff and annual hydropower generation, a runoff-based assessment approach is introduced in this study to project changes in annual and regional hydropower generation in multiple power marketing areas. Future climate scenarios are developed with a series of global and regional climate models, and the model output is bias-corrected to be consistent with observed data for the recent past. Using this approach, the median change in annual generation at federal projects is projected to be -2 TWh, with an estimated ensemble uncertainty of ±9 TWh. Although these estimates are similar to the recently observed variability in annual hydropower generation, and may therefore appear to be manageable, significantly seasonal runoff changes are projected and it may pose significant challenges in water systems with higher limits on reservoir storage and operational flexibility. Future assessments will be improved by incorporating next-generation climate models, by closer examination of extreme events and longer-term change, and by addressing the interactions among hydropower and other water uses.

Suggested Citation

  • Kao, Shih-Chieh & Sale, Michael J. & Ashfaq, Moetasim & Uria Martinez, Rocio & Kaiser, Dale P. & Wei, Yaxing & Diffenbaugh, Noah S., 2015. "Projecting changes in annual hydropower generation using regional runoff data: An assessment of the United States federal hydropower plants," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 239-250.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:80:y:2015:i:c:p:239-250
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2014.11.066
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544214013218
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2014.11.066?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Clara Deser & Reto Knutti & Susan Solomon & Adam S. Phillips, 2012. "Communication of the role of natural variability in future North American climate," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 2(11), pages 775-779, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Michael R. Grose & James S. Risbey & Penny H. Whetton, 2017. "Tracking regional temperature projections from the early 1990s in light of variations in regional warming, including ‘warming holes’," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 140(2), pages 307-322, January.
    2. S. Camici & L. Brocca & T. Moramarco, 2017. "Accuracy versus variability of climate projections for flood assessment in central Italy," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 141(2), pages 273-286, March.
    3. Christopher W. Callahan & Justin S. Mankin, 2022. "National attribution of historical climate damages," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 172(3), pages 1-19, June.
    4. Chenyao Yang & Helder Fraga & Wim Ieperen & Henrique Trindade & João A. Santos, 2019. "Effects of climate change and adaptation options on winter wheat yield under rainfed Mediterranean conditions in southern Portugal," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 154(1), pages 159-178, May.
    5. Charles D. Kolstad & Frances C. Moore, 2020. "Estimating the Economic Impacts of Climate Change Using Weather Observations," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 14(1), pages 1-24.
    6. Wenhao Dong & Yi Ming & Yi Deng & Zhaoyi Shen, 2024. "Recent wetting trend over Taklamakan and Gobi Desert dominated by internal variability," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-10, December.
    7. Shuai-Lei Yao & Jing-Jia Luo & Gang Huang, 2016. "Internal Variability-Generated Uncertainty in East Asian Climate Projections Estimated with 40 CCSM3 Ensembles," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(3), pages 1-12, March.
    8. Lu Dong & L. Ruby Leung & Fengfei Song & Jian Lu, 2021. "Uncertainty in El Niño-like warming and California precipitation changes linked by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-10, December.
    9. Emanuele Bevacqua & Laura Suarez-Gutierrez & Aglaé Jézéquel & Flavio Lehner & Mathieu Vrac & Pascal Yiou & Jakob Zscheischler, 2023. "Advancing research on compound weather and climate events via large ensemble model simulations," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-16, December.
    10. Stephan Harrison & Tim Mighall & David A. Stainforth & Philip Allen & Mark Macklin & Edward Anderson & Jasper Knight & Dmitri Mauquoy & David Passmore & Brice Rea & Matteo Spagnolo & Sarah Shannon, 2019. "Uncertainty in geomorphological responses to climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 156(1), pages 69-86, September.
    11. Chelsea L. Parker & Priscilla A. Mooney & Melinda A. Webster & Linette N. Boisvert, 2022. "The influence of recent and future climate change on spring Arctic cyclones," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-14, December.
    12. Cha Zhao & François Brissette, 2022. "Impacts of large-scale oscillations on climate variability over North America," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 173(1), pages 1-21, July.
    13. Phong Nguyen Thanh & Thinh Le Van & Tuan Tran Minh & Tuyen Huynh Ngoc & Worapong Lohpaisankrit & Quoc Bao Pham & Alexandre S. Gagnon & Proloy Deb & Nhat Truong Pham & Duong Tran Anh & Vuong Nguyen Din, 2023. "Adapting to Climate-Change-Induced Drought Stress to Improve Water Management in Southeast Vietnam," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-27, June.
    14. Zhaomin Ding & Panmao Zhai & Renguang Wu, 2024. "Impacts of anthropogenic forcing and internal variability on the rapid warming over the Tibetan Plateau," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 177(1), pages 1-22, January.
    15. Ramón Elía & Sébastien Biner & Anne Frigon & Hélène Côté, 2014. "Timescales associated with climate change and their relevance in adaptation strategies," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 126(1), pages 93-106, September.
    16. Yuqiang Zhang & Drew T. Shindell, 2021. "Costs from labor losses due to extreme heat in the USA attributable to climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 164(3), pages 1-18, February.
    17. Mohammad Hasan Mahmoudi & Mohammad Reza Najafi & Harsimrenjit Singh & Markus Schnorbus, 2021. "Spatial and temporal changes in climate extremes over northwestern North America: the influence of internal climate variability and external forcing," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 165(1), pages 1-19, March.
    18. Frigg, Roman & Smith, Leonard A. & Stainforth, David A., 2015. "An assessment of the foundational assumptions inhigh-resolution climate projections: the case of UKCP09," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 61635, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    19. Franzke, Christian L.E., 2021. "Towards the development of economic damage functions for weather and climate extremes," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    20. Donald J. Wuebbles & Aman Chitkara & Clay Matheny, 2014. "Potential effects of climate change on global security," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 34(4), pages 564-577, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:80:y:2015:i:c:p:239-250. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.