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Short-term heating load forecasting model based on SVMD and improved informer

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  • Tan, Quanwei
  • Cao, Chunhua
  • Xue, Guijun
  • Xie, Wenju

Abstract

Accurate heat load forecasting can not only effectively reduce energy consumption, but also improve the efficiency of the heating system and user comfort. In order to improve the accuracy of heat load forecasting, we proposed a forecasting method combining SVMD algorithm and improved Informer model and applied it to the heat load forecasting of district heating system. First, SVMD algorithm is used to decompose the heat load data, and then relative position coding is introduced into Informer model, and causal convolution and jump connection mechanisms are adopted to better capture the dependence of sequence data and enhance the ability of local information extraction. In order to verify the model performance, experiments were conducted on multiple data sets. The results show that the R2 evaluation index of the model reaches 98.7 %, which is 10.8 %, 17.1 %, 6.3 %, 4.9 %, 2.3 %, 1.5 % and 16.6 % higher than SVR, RNN, LSTM, Transformer, SH-Informer, iTransformer and DLinear respectively. The validity of the model is further verified by DM test, which provides a reference for further improving the timeliness of intelligent heating.

Suggested Citation

  • Tan, Quanwei & Cao, Chunhua & Xue, Guijun & Xie, Wenju, 2024. "Short-term heating load forecasting model based on SVMD and improved informer," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 312(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:312:y:2024:i:c:s0360544224033115
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2024.133535
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