IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/appene/v179y2016icp544-552.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Evaluation of a multiple linear regression model and SARIMA model in forecasting heat demand for district heating system

Author

Listed:
  • Fang, Tingting
  • Lahdelma, Risto

Abstract

Forecasting heat demand is necessary for production and operation planning of district heating (DH) systems. In this study we first propose a simple regression model where the hourly outdoor temperature and wind speed forecast the heat demand. Weekly rhythm of heat consumption as a social component is added to the model to significantly improve the accuracy. The other type of model is the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model with exogenous variables as a combination to take weather factors, and the historical heat consumption data as depending variables. One outstanding advantage of the model is that it peruses the high accuracy for both long-term and short-term forecast by considering both exogenous factors and time series. The forecasting performance of both linear regression models and time series model are evaluated based on real-life heat demand data for the city of Espoo in Finland by out-of-sample tests for the last 20 full weeks of the year. The results indicate that the proposed linear regression model (T168h) using 168-h demand pattern with midweek holidays classified as Saturdays or Sundays gives the highest accuracy and strong robustness among all the tested models based on the tested forecasting horizon and corresponding data. Considering the parsimony of the input, the ease of use and the high accuracy, the proposed T168h model is the best in practice. The heat demand forecasting model can also be developed for individual buildings if automated meter reading customer measurements are available. This would allow forecasting the heat demand based on more accurate heat consumption data directly from the customers and almost in real time. Also, the model can be used for production planning of combined heat and power (CHP) system to improve the energy efficiency.

Suggested Citation

  • Fang, Tingting & Lahdelma, Risto, 2016. "Evaluation of a multiple linear regression model and SARIMA model in forecasting heat demand for district heating system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 544-552.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:179:y:2016:i:c:p:544-552
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2016.06.133
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261916309217
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.apenergy.2016.06.133?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Protić, Milan & Shamshirband, Shahaboddin & Petković, Dalibor & Abbasi, Almas & Mat Kiah, Miss Laiha & Unar, Jawed Akhtar & Živković, Ljiljana & Raos, Miomir, 2015. "Forecasting of consumers heat load in district heating systems using the support vector machine with a discrete wavelet transform algorithm," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 343-351.
    2. Rezaie, Behnaz & Rosen, Marc A., 2012. "District heating and cooling: Review of technology and potential enhancements," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 2-10.
    3. Powell, Kody M. & Sriprasad, Akshay & Cole, Wesley J. & Edgar, Thomas F., 2014. "Heating, cooling, and electrical load forecasting for a large-scale district energy system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 877-885.
    4. Fang, Tingting & Lahdelma, Risto, 2015. "Genetic optimization of multi-plant heat production in district heating networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 610-619.
    5. Mestekemper, Thomas & Kauermann, Göran & Smith, Michael S., 2013. "A comparison of periodic autoregressive and dynamic factor models in intraday energy demand forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 1-12.
    6. Seo, Dong-yeon & Koo, Choongwan & Hong, Taehoon, 2015. "A Lagrangian finite element model for estimating the heating and cooling demand of a residential building with a different envelope design," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 66-79.
    7. Dotzauer, Erik, 2002. "Simple model for prediction of loads in district-heating systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 73(3-4), pages 277-284, November.
    8. Ediger, Volkan S. & Akar, Sertac, 2007. "ARIMA forecasting of primary energy demand by fuel in Turkey," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 1701-1708, March.
    9. De Rosa, Mattia & Bianco, Vincenzo & Scarpa, Federico & Tagliafico, Luca A., 2014. "Heating and cooling building energy demand evaluation; a simplified model and a modified degree days approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 217-229.
    10. Izadyar, Nima & Ghadamian, Hossein & Ong, Hwai Chyuan & moghadam, Zeinab & Tong, Chong Wen & Shamshirband, Shahaboddin, 2015. "Appraisal of the support vector machine to forecast residential heating demand for the District Heating System based on the monthly overall natural gas consumption," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 93(P2), pages 1558-1567.
    11. Holmgren, Kristina, 2006. "Role of a district-heating network as a user of waste-heat supply from various sources - the case of Göteborg," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 83(12), pages 1351-1367, December.
    12. Fang, Tingting & Lahdelma, Risto, 2016. "Optimization of combined heat and power production with heat storage based on sliding time window method," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 723-732.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Xue, Puning & Zhou, Zhigang & Fang, Xiumu & Chen, Xin & Liu, Lin & Liu, Yaowen & Liu, Jing, 2017. "Fault detection and operation optimization in district heating substations based on data mining techniques," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 205(C), pages 926-940.
    2. Ma, Weiwu & Fang, Song & Liu, Gang & Zhou, Ruoyu, 2017. "Modeling of district load forecasting for distributed energy system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 181-205.
    3. Xue, Puning & Jiang, Yi & Zhou, Zhigang & Chen, Xin & Fang, Xiumu & Liu, Jing, 2019. "Multi-step ahead forecasting of heat load in district heating systems using machine learning algorithms," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    4. Magnus Dahl & Adam Brun & Oliver S. Kirsebom & Gorm B. Andresen, 2018. "Improving Short-Term Heat Load Forecasts with Calendar and Holiday Data," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-16, June.
    5. Xue, Guixiang & Qi, Chengying & Li, Han & Kong, Xiangfei & Song, Jiancai, 2020. "Heating load prediction based on attention long short term memory: A case study of Xingtai," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    6. Dahl, Magnus & Brun, Adam & Andresen, Gorm B., 2017. "Decision rules for economic summer-shutdown of production units in large district heating systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 208(C), pages 1128-1138.
    7. F. Marta L. Di Lascio & Andrea Menapace & Maurizio Righetti, 2020. "Joint and conditional dependence modelling of peak district heating demand and outdoor temperature: a copula-based approach," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 29(2), pages 373-395, June.
    8. Rismanchi, B., 2017. "District energy network (DEN), current global status and future development," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 571-579.
    9. Yuan, Jianjuan & Zhou, Zhihua & Tang, Huajie & Wang, Chendong & Lu, Shilei & Han, Zhao & Zhang, Ji & Sheng, Ying, 2020. "Identification heat user behavior for improving the accuracy of heating load prediction model based on wireless on-off control system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
    10. Felten, Björn, 2020. "An integrated model of coupled heat and power sectors for large-scale energy system analyses," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 266(C).
    11. Nigitz, Thomas & Gölles, Markus, 2019. "A generally applicable, simple and adaptive forecasting method for the short-term heat load of consumers," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 241(C), pages 73-81.
    12. Andrea Menapace & Simone Santopietro & Rudy Gargano & Maurizio Righetti, 2021. "Stochastic Generation of District Heat Load," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-17, August.
    13. Aunedi, Marko & Pantaleo, Antonio Marco & Kuriyan, Kamal & Strbac, Goran & Shah, Nilay, 2020. "Modelling of national and local interactions between heat and electricity networks in low-carbon energy systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 276(C).
    14. Soheil Kavian & Mohsen Saffari Pour & Ali Hakkaki-Fard, 2019. "Optimized Design of the District Heating System by Considering the Techno-Economic Aspects and Future Weather Projection," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-30, May.
    15. Gong, Mingju & Zhao, Yin & Sun, Jiawang & Han, Cuitian & Sun, Guannan & Yan, Bo, 2022. "Load forecasting of district heating system based on Informer," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 253(C).
    16. Talebi, Behrang & Haghighat, Fariborz & Tuohy, Paul & Mirzaei, Parham A., 2018. "Validation of a community district energy system model using field measured data," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 694-706.
    17. Shakeel, Asim & Chong, Daotong & Wang, Jinshi, 2023. "Load forecasting of district heating system based on improved FB-Prophet model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 278(C).
    18. Olsson, Linda & Wetterlund, Elisabeth & Söderström, Mats, 2015. "Assessing the climate impact of district heating systems with combined heat and power production and industrial excess heat," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 31-39.
    19. Maciej Bujalski & Paweł Madejski, 2021. "Forecasting of Heat Production in Combined Heat and Power Plants Using Generalized Additive Models," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-15, April.
    20. Michael-Allan Millar & Neil M. Burnside & Zhibin Yu, 2019. "District Heating Challenges for the UK," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-21, January.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:179:y:2016:i:c:p:544-552. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.