A SVM based demand response capacity prediction model considering internal factors under composite program

Demand response capacity is a key reference for demand-side participation in peak regulation and earning profit in the electricity market, and it is influenced by not only external public factors but demand-side internal individual factors. Demand change caused by internal individual reasons cannot be recognized by public features. Single participating in response industrial and commercial consumers cannot balance this change through large numbers of participants, unlike aggregators. The prediction model only considering the external public factors will cause significant errors. However, the actual industrial and commercial data is difficult to obtain because of the cost and privacy, and the simulation platform cannot accurately describe this situation, resulting in the problem being ignored. Therefore, this paper aims to prove the importance of internal factors and proposes an improved method considering the problem. First, based on an actual dataset, the optimal responsive behavior of consumers is modeled to quantify response capacity. Second, a support vector machine (SVM) method is applied to predict response capacity. Finally, combined with raw data, this paper proves that significant errors are caused by internal factors and provides different improvement methods for internal and external operators. The case study indicates that the improved model can provide better performance.