China's provincial power decarbonization transition in a carbon neutral vision

The power sector plays a crucial role in achieving the China's carbon neutrality target. However, there remain knowledge gaps regarding provincial emission reduction efforts toward carbon neutrality and the impact of carbon flows embodied in electricity transmissions. This study built a modeling framework, linking a bottom-up multi-regional power system model and Quasi-Input-Output approach, to investigate the provincial-level power system transition. Multiple combined scenarios based on shared socio-economic developments and different carbon mitigation policies were designed for a comprehensive assessment. Results indicates that the transition of the power system by 2060, under various scenarios, necessitates 7–7.8 TW of wind and solar photovoltaic power, 4810–6309 TWh of electricity transmissions, and 140–262 GW of coal power retrofits. Notably, carbon emission flows will accumulatively reach 12.7–18.7 Gt from 2020 to 2060. Inner Mongolia will bear a cumulative of more than 5 Gt of carbon flows from North China. When considering the indirect emissions, load centers such as Shandong will have higher peak emissions, and Shandong will replace Inner Mongolia as the largest emitter province. In addition, provincial emission factors under the influence of complex electricity transmissions and carbon flows are estimated.