Provincial pathways to carbon-neutral energy systems in China considering interprovincial electricity transmission development

Achieving China's ambitious carbon neutrality goal requires tangible action by the provinces. Significant heterogeneities between provinces make for divergent transition paths and different contributions to climate goals. To portray the dynamics of the energy transition at the provincial level, this study develops a China's provincial energy-environment-economic model (China TIMES-30PE) with special consideration of the interprovincial electricity transmission. To achieve carbon peaking, it is necessary to raise the carbon intensity reduction target on the basis of the 13th Five-Year Plan and enable rapid emission reductions through non-fossil energy expansion, end-use electrification, and the hydrogen boom to achieve carbon neutrality. Renewable energy and energy storage growth is concentrated in West, but electricity demand is growing rapidly in the East, creating a clear mismatch and making inter-provincial transmission and grid needs steeper. The central provinces shift from electricity exporters to electricity importers in future energy system landscape. By 2060, China is expected to form several major inter-regional power transmission routes from Northwest China to the Yangtze River Delta and Central China, from Inner Mongolia to Shandong, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and Henan, from Sichuan to the Yangtze River Delta, and from Yunnan to Guangdong. Driven by large-scale long-distance transmission, the capacity of ultra-high voltage lines is expected to increase rapidly.