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Safe and just Earth system boundaries

Author

Listed:
  • Johan Rockström

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association
    University of Potsdam
    Stockholm University)

  • Joyeeta Gupta

    (University of Amsterdam
    IHE Delft Institute for Water Education)

  • Dahe Qin

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences
    China Meteorological Administration
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Steven J. Lade

    (Stockholm University
    Future Earth Secretariat
    Australian National University)

  • Jesse F. Abrams

    (University of Exeter)

  • Lauren S. Andersen

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association)

  • David I. Armstrong McKay

    (Stockholm University
    University of Exeter
    Georesilience Analytics)

  • Xuemei Bai

    (Australian National University)

  • Govindasamy Bala

    (Indian Institute of Science)

  • Stuart E. Bunn

    (Griffith University)

  • Daniel Ciobanu

    (Stockholm University)

  • Fabrice DeClerck

    (EAT
    Alliance of Bioversity International and CIAT of the CGIAR)

  • Kristie Ebi

    (University of Washington)

  • Lauren Gifford

    (University of Arizona)

  • Christopher Gordon

    (University of Ghana)

  • Syezlin Hasan

    (Griffith University)

  • Norichika Kanie

    (Keio University)

  • Timothy M. Lenton

    (University of Exeter)

  • Sina Loriani

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association)

  • Diana M. Liverman

    (University of Arizona)

  • Awaz Mohamed

    (Universität Hamburg)

  • Nebojsa Nakicenovic

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis)

  • David Obura

    (CORDIO East Africa)

  • Daniel Ospina

    (Future Earth Secretariat)

  • Klaudia Prodani

    (University of Amsterdam)

  • Crelis Rammelt

    (University of Amsterdam)

  • Boris Sakschewski

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association)

  • Joeri Scholtens

    (University of Amsterdam)

  • Ben Stewart-Koster

    (Griffith University)

  • Thejna Tharammal

    (Indian Institute of Science)

  • Detlef Vuuren

    (Utrecht University
    PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency)

  • Peter H. Verburg

    (Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research
    Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)

  • Ricarda Winkelmann

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association
    University of Potsdam)

  • Caroline Zimm

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis)

  • Elena M. Bennett

    (McGill University
    McGill University)

  • Stefan Bringezu

    (Kassel University)

  • Wendy Broadgate

    (Future Earth Secretariat)

  • Pamela A. Green

    (City University of New York)

  • Lei Huang

    (National Climate Center)

  • Lisa Jacobson

    (Future Earth Secretariat)

  • Christopher Ndehedehe

    (Griffith University
    Griffith University)

  • Simona Pedde

    (Future Earth Secretariat
    Wageningen University & Research)

  • Juan Rocha

    (Stockholm University
    Future Earth Secretariat)

  • Marten Scheffer

    (Wageningen University & Research)

  • Lena Schulte-Uebbing

    (Utrecht University
    Wageningen University & Research)

  • Wim Vries

    (Wageningen University & Research)

  • Cunde Xiao

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences
    Beijing Normal University)

  • Chi Xu

    (Nanjing University)

  • Xinwu Xu

    (China Meteorological Administration
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Noelia Zafra-Calvo

    (Scientific Campus of the University of the Basque Country)

  • Xin Zhang

    (University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science)

Abstract

The stability and resilience of the Earth system and human well-being are inseparably linked1–3, yet their interdependencies are generally under-recognized; consequently, they are often treated independently4,5. Here, we use modelling and literature assessment to quantify safe and just Earth system boundaries (ESBs) for climate, the biosphere, water and nutrient cycles, and aerosols at global and subglobal scales. We propose ESBs for maintaining the resilience and stability of the Earth system (safe ESBs) and minimizing exposure to significant harm to humans from Earth system change (a necessary but not sufficient condition for justice)4. The stricter of the safe or just boundaries sets the integrated safe and just ESB. Our findings show that justice considerations constrain the integrated ESBs more than safety considerations for climate and atmospheric aerosol loading. Seven of eight globally quantified safe and just ESBs and at least two regional safe and just ESBs in over half of global land area are already exceeded. We propose that our assessment provides a quantitative foundation for safeguarding the global commons for all people now and into the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Johan Rockström & Joyeeta Gupta & Dahe Qin & Steven J. Lade & Jesse F. Abrams & Lauren S. Andersen & David I. Armstrong McKay & Xuemei Bai & Govindasamy Bala & Stuart E. Bunn & Daniel Ciobanu & Fabric, 2023. "Safe and just Earth system boundaries," Nature, Nature, vol. 619(7968), pages 102-111, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:619:y:2023:i:7968:d:10.1038_s41586-023-06083-8
    DOI: 10.1038/s41586-023-06083-8
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