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Safe and just Earth system boundaries

Author

Listed:
  • Johan Rockström

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association
    University of Potsdam
    Stockholm University)

  • Joyeeta Gupta

    (University of Amsterdam
    IHE Delft Institute for Water Education)

  • Dahe Qin

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences
    China Meteorological Administration
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Steven J. Lade

    (Stockholm University
    Future Earth Secretariat
    Australian National University)

  • Jesse F. Abrams

    (University of Exeter)

  • Lauren S. Andersen

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association)

  • David I. Armstrong McKay

    (Stockholm University
    University of Exeter
    Georesilience Analytics)

  • Xuemei Bai

    (Australian National University)

  • Govindasamy Bala

    (Indian Institute of Science)

  • Stuart E. Bunn

    (Griffith University)

  • Daniel Ciobanu

    (Stockholm University)

  • Fabrice DeClerck

    (EAT
    Alliance of Bioversity International and CIAT of the CGIAR)

  • Kristie Ebi

    (University of Washington)

  • Lauren Gifford

    (University of Arizona)

  • Christopher Gordon

    (University of Ghana)

  • Syezlin Hasan

    (Griffith University)

  • Norichika Kanie

    (Keio University)

  • Timothy M. Lenton

    (University of Exeter)

  • Sina Loriani

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association)

  • Diana M. Liverman

    (University of Arizona)

  • Awaz Mohamed

    (Universität Hamburg)

  • Nebojsa Nakicenovic

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis)

  • David Obura

    (CORDIO East Africa)

  • Daniel Ospina

    (Future Earth Secretariat)

  • Klaudia Prodani

    (University of Amsterdam)

  • Crelis Rammelt

    (University of Amsterdam)

  • Boris Sakschewski

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association)

  • Joeri Scholtens

    (University of Amsterdam)

  • Ben Stewart-Koster

    (Griffith University)

  • Thejna Tharammal

    (Indian Institute of Science)

  • Detlef Vuuren

    (Utrecht University
    PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency)

  • Peter H. Verburg

    (Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research
    Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)

  • Ricarda Winkelmann

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association
    University of Potsdam)

  • Caroline Zimm

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis)

  • Elena M. Bennett

    (McGill University
    McGill University)

  • Stefan Bringezu

    (Kassel University)

  • Wendy Broadgate

    (Future Earth Secretariat)

  • Pamela A. Green

    (City University of New York)

  • Lei Huang

    (National Climate Center)

  • Lisa Jacobson

    (Future Earth Secretariat)

  • Christopher Ndehedehe

    (Griffith University
    Griffith University)

  • Simona Pedde

    (Future Earth Secretariat
    Wageningen University & Research)

  • Juan Rocha

    (Stockholm University
    Future Earth Secretariat)

  • Marten Scheffer

    (Wageningen University & Research)

  • Lena Schulte-Uebbing

    (Utrecht University
    Wageningen University & Research)

  • Wim Vries

    (Wageningen University & Research)

  • Cunde Xiao

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences
    Beijing Normal University)

  • Chi Xu

    (Nanjing University)

  • Xinwu Xu

    (China Meteorological Administration
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Noelia Zafra-Calvo

    (Scientific Campus of the University of the Basque Country)

  • Xin Zhang

    (University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science)

Abstract

The stability and resilience of the Earth system and human well-being are inseparably linked1–3, yet their interdependencies are generally under-recognized; consequently, they are often treated independently4,5. Here, we use modelling and literature assessment to quantify safe and just Earth system boundaries (ESBs) for climate, the biosphere, water and nutrient cycles, and aerosols at global and subglobal scales. We propose ESBs for maintaining the resilience and stability of the Earth system (safe ESBs) and minimizing exposure to significant harm to humans from Earth system change (a necessary but not sufficient condition for justice)4. The stricter of the safe or just boundaries sets the integrated safe and just ESB. Our findings show that justice considerations constrain the integrated ESBs more than safety considerations for climate and atmospheric aerosol loading. Seven of eight globally quantified safe and just ESBs and at least two regional safe and just ESBs in over half of global land area are already exceeded. We propose that our assessment provides a quantitative foundation for safeguarding the global commons for all people now and into the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Johan Rockström & Joyeeta Gupta & Dahe Qin & Steven J. Lade & Jesse F. Abrams & Lauren S. Andersen & David I. Armstrong McKay & Xuemei Bai & Govindasamy Bala & Stuart E. Bunn & Daniel Ciobanu & Fabric, 2023. "Safe and just Earth system boundaries," Nature, Nature, vol. 619(7968), pages 102-111, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:619:y:2023:i:7968:d:10.1038_s41586-023-06083-8
    DOI: 10.1038/s41586-023-06083-8
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ioan Negrutiu, 2024. "Global Resources and Resource Justice—Reframing the Socioecological Science-to-Policy Landscape," Resources, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-15, September.
    2. Laura I. Acevedo & Daniela C. A. Pigosso & Tim C. McAloone, 2024. "Exploring the Landscape of Contemporary Sustainability Philosophies: Origins, Synergies and Corporate Applications," Circular Economy and Sustainability, Springer, vol. 4(4), pages 2675-2711, December.
    3. Yoann Jovet & Alexis Laurent & Frédéric Lefevre & Marc Clausse, 2024. "Assessing the Potential for Electrification of the Food Industry and Its Implications for Environmental Sustainability," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(11), pages 1-21, May.
    4. Elif Oral, 2024. "The environmental rule of law and the protection of human rights defenders: law, society, technology, and markets," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 393-421, September.
    5. Wagner, Johannes & Merner, Sara & Innocenti, Stefania & Geling, Alinta & Hope, Rob, 2025. "Can solar water kiosks generate sustainable revenue streams for rural water services?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    6. Marcantonio, Richard, 2024. "Environmental violence and enterprise: The outsized role of business for environmental peacebuilding," Business Horizons, Elsevier, vol. 67(6), pages 685-698.
    7. Yahdih Semlali & Musaddag Elrayah & Mekimah Sabri & Zighed Rahma & Ismail Bengana, 2024. "How Can Industrial SMEs Achieve Sustainability through Cleaner Production? Green Marketing’s Role as a Mediator," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(19), pages 1-25, October.
    8. Kılkış, Şiir, 2024. "Urban emissions and land use efficiency scenarios for avoiding increments of global warming," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 307(C).
    9. Xinyun Wang & Chuanglin Fang, 2024. "Evaluation of Coupled Human–Natural System Coordination in Xinjiang and Analysis of Obstacle Factors," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-27, September.
    10. Filipe Duarte Santos & Tim O’Riordan & Miguel Rocha de Sousa & Jiesper Strandsbjerg Tristan Pedersen, 2023. "The Six Critical Determinants That May Act as Human Sustainability Boundaries on Climate Change Action," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(1), pages 1-20, December.
    11. Remco Kort & Koen Arts & Josep M. Antó & Matty P. Berg & Gabrielle Cepella & Jennifer Cole & Amarylle van Doorn & Tomás van Gorp & Milo Grootjen & Joyeeta Gupta & Colin Hill & Eva van der Heide & Jef , 2023. "Outcomes from the First European Planetary Health Congress at ARTIS in Amsterdam," Challenges, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-30, December.
    12. Richard Morris & Shannon Davis & Gwen-Aëlle Grelet & Pablo Gregorini, 2024. "Agroecology for the City—Spatialising ES-Based Design in Peri-Urban Contexts," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-19, September.
    13. Alvarez-Rodriguez, Javier & Ryschawy, Julie & Grillot, Myriam & Martin, Guillaume, 2024. "Circularity and livestock diversity: Pathways to sustainability in intensive pig farming regions," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    14. Wikström, Gustav & Bledow, Nona & Matinmikko-Blue, Marja & Breuer, Henning & Costa, Cristina & Darzanos, George & Gavras, Anastasius & Hossfeld, Tobias & Mesogiti, Ioanna & Petersen, Katrina & Poramba, 2024. "Key value indicators: A framework for values-driven next-generation ICT solutions," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(6).
    15. Louis J. Kotzé & Benoit Mayer & Harro van Asselt & Joana Setzer & Frank Biermann & Nicolas Celis & Sam Adelman & Bridget Lewis & Amanda Kennedy & Helen Arling & Birgit Peters, 2024. "Courts, climate litigation and the evolution of earth system law," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 15(1), pages 5-22, February.
    16. Naudé, Wim, 2024. "Entrepreneurship Is Dangerously Obsessed with Growth and Incompatible with Current Visions of a Post-growth Society," IZA Discussion Papers 17158, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    17. Osberg, Gustav & Schulz, Felix & Bretter, Christian, 2024. "Navigating sustainable futures: The role of terminal and instrumental values," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    18. Patrick Moriarty & Damon Honnery, 2023. "Review: The Energy Implications of Averting Climate Change Catastrophe," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(17), pages 1-16, August.
    19. Infante-Amate, Juan & Travieso, Emiliano & Aguilera, Eduardo, 2024. "Unsustainable prosperity? Decoupling wellbeing, economic growth, and greenhouse gas emissions over the past 150 years," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    20. Lersch, Jonathan & Tang, Rui & Weibelzahl, Martin & Weissflog, Jan & Wu, Ziyan, 2025. "Assessing the impacts of energy sharing on low voltage distribution networks: Insights into electrification and electricity pricing in Germany," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 378(PA).
    21. Keishiro Hara & Yukari Fuchigami & Takanobu Arai & Yutaka Nomaguchi, 2024. "Compatible effects of adopting imaginary future generations and systems thinking in exploring future challenges: Evidence from a deliberation experiment," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 6(4), December.
    22. Jules Pretty & Dennis Garrity & Hemant Kumar Badola & Mike Barrett & Cornelia Butler Flora & Catherine Cameron & Natasha Grist & Leanne Hepburn & Heather Hilburn & Amy Isham & Erik Jacobi & Rattan Lal, 2025. "How the Concept of “Regenerative Good Growth” Could Help Increase Public and Policy Engagement and Speed Transitions to Net Zero and Nature Recovery," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(3), pages 1-29, January.
    23. Wu, Tong & Rocha, Juan C. & Berry, Kevin & Chaigneau, Tomas & Hamann, Maike & Lindkvist, Emilie & Qiu, Jiangxiao & Schill, Caroline & Shepon, Alon & Crépin, Anne-Sophie & Folke, Carl, 2024. "Triple Bottom Line or Trilemma? Global Tradeoffs Between Prosperity, Inequality, and the Environment," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    24. Panpan Ji & Jianhui Chen & Ruijin Chen & Jianbao Liu & Chaoqing Yu & Fahu Chen, 2024. "Nitrogen and phosphorus trends in lake sediments of China may diverge," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-9, December.
    25. Nick King & Aled Jones, 2025. "Human Behavioural Traits and the Polycrisis: A Systematic Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(4), pages 1-25, February.

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