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Two-stage correction prediction of wind power based on numerical weather prediction wind speed superposition correction and improved clustering

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  • Yang, Mao
  • Guo, Yunfeng
  • Fan, Fulin
  • Huang, Tao

Abstract

The unavoidable wind power prediction error poses a challenge for wind power to participate in day-ahead scheduling plan. This paper proposes a two-stage correction method considering NWP wind speed and power correction. Firstly, this paper fully considers the historical similarity of NWP wind speed, and adopts the improved clustering distance for segment matching and wind speed correction based on the extracted most relevant trend component, which enhances the utilization of NWP information and avoids the randomness and uncertainty of the intelligent correction method, and gram angular field (GAF) and stacked autoencoder (SAE) are used for feature extraction and conditional variational autoencoder (CVA) is used to generate specific samples to ensure the adequacy of the clustering process. Secondly, considering the historical similarity of error of predicted power, the power is further corrected based on the proposed weighted double-constraint to realize the secondary calibration. The Proposed method is applied to several wind farms in China to verify its effectiveness. The results show that the proposed method reduces the NRMSE by 3.82 % and NMAE by 3.40 % compared with direct prediction in the wind farms in western Inner Mongolia, which is important for promoting wind power consumption and maintaining the safe and stable operation of the power system.

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  • Yang, Mao & Guo, Yunfeng & Fan, Fulin & Huang, Tao, 2024. "Two-stage correction prediction of wind power based on numerical weather prediction wind speed superposition correction and improved clustering," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 302(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:302:y:2024:i:c:s0360544224015706
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2024.131797
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