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A composite framework for photovoltaic day-ahead power prediction based on dual clustering of dynamic time warping distance and deep autoencoder

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  • Yang, Mao
  • Zhao, Meng
  • Huang, Dawei
  • Su, Xin

Abstract

The improvement of photovoltaic (PV) power prediction precision plays a crucial role in the new energy consumption. This paper proposes a composite prediction framework (DC (DWT-DAE)-CNN) consisting of dual clustering and convolutional neural network to achieve day-ahead prediction of PV power. To avoid the temporal uncertainty of PV power and the high-dimensional complexity of numerical weather prediction, the raw data are processed by Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT) and Deep Autoencoder respectively (DAE) to reduce the data redundancy. Secondly, a dual clustering pattern based on dynamic time warping distance clustering and Fuzzy C-Mean (FCM) clustering is proposed to progressively realize the dynamic characteristics of the power curve and numerical clustering of the weather information data. Finally, the data from PV plants in northeast China are used for validation. The results show that the annual average day-ahead prediction AR of the DC (DWT-DAE)-CNN model can reach 90.17%, which is better than other competing models. In addition, the dual clustering pattern performs better than other traditional clustering patterns with the same predictor. Using this method to predict the PV output power can provide better theoretical guidance for the stable and safe operation of grid-connected PV.

Suggested Citation

  • Yang, Mao & Zhao, Meng & Huang, Dawei & Su, Xin, 2022. "A composite framework for photovoltaic day-ahead power prediction based on dual clustering of dynamic time warping distance and deep autoencoder," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 194(C), pages 659-673.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:194:y:2022:i:c:p:659-673
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2022.05.141
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    2. Xu, Xuefang & Hu, Shiting & Shao, Huaishuang & Shi, Peiming & Li, Ruixiong & Li, Deguang, 2023. "A spatio-temporal forecasting model using optimally weighted graph convolutional network and gated recurrent unit for wind speed of different sites distributed in an offshore wind farm," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 284(C).
    3. Yang, Mao & Guo, Yunfeng & Fan, Fulin & Huang, Tao, 2024. "Two-stage correction prediction of wind power based on numerical weather prediction wind speed superposition correction and improved clustering," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 302(C).
    4. Yang, Mao & Guo, Yunfeng & Huang, Yutong, 2023. "Wind power ultra-short-term prediction method based on NWP wind speed correction and double clustering division of transitional weather process," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 282(C).
    5. Yang, Mao & Che, Runqi & Yu, Xinnan & Su, Xin, 2024. "Dual NWP wind speed correction based on trend fusion and fluctuation clustering and its application in short-term wind power prediction," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 302(C).
    6. Huang, Jing & Qin, Rui, 2024. "Elman neural network considering dynamic time delay estimation for short-term forecasting of offshore wind power," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 358(C).

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