IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v270y2023ics0360544223003006.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Explainable temporal dependence in multi-step wind power forecast via decomposition based chain echo state networks

Author

Listed:
  • Wu, Zhou
  • Zeng, Shaoxiong
  • Jiang, Ruiqi
  • Zhang, Haoran
  • Yang, Zhile

Abstract

Wind power is one of the most promising renewable energy for its abundant resources, economically competitive, and environmentally friendly. Nevertheless, the wind power is challenging used in the power generation system due to its intermittency. Therefore, to improve the utilization ratio of wind power, the common method is adopting a prediction model for scheduling the generation industries. However, the information offered by single-step models hardly assists managers control their generators, and existing multi-step prediction models ignore the temporal dependence among predicted steps. Thus, a hybrid method based on a deep-chain echo state network (DCESN) and variational mode decomposition (VMD) is proposed to enhance the mapping capability for wind power multi-step prediction. The multiple reservoirs of deep-chain echo state network are concatenated as a chain structure, which could congregate the temporal relations among future steps shown in visualized graphs. Three comparative experiments demonstrate that the proposed hybrid method has promising performance on wind power multi-step prediction.

Suggested Citation

  • Wu, Zhou & Zeng, Shaoxiong & Jiang, Ruiqi & Zhang, Haoran & Yang, Zhile, 2023. "Explainable temporal dependence in multi-step wind power forecast via decomposition based chain echo state networks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 270(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:270:y:2023:i:c:s0360544223003006
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2023.126906
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544223003006
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2023.126906?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jung, Jaesung & Broadwater, Robert P., 2014. "Current status and future advances for wind speed and power forecasting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 762-777.
    2. Liu, Xiaolei & Lin, Zi & Feng, Ziming, 2021. "Short-term offshore wind speed forecast by seasonal ARIMA - A comparison against GRU and LSTM," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    3. Guo, Zhenhai & Zhao, Weigang & Lu, Haiyan & Wang, Jianzhou, 2012. "Multi-step forecasting for wind speed using a modified EMD-based artificial neural network model," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 241-249.
    4. Cui, Yang & Chen, Zhenghong & He, Yingjie & Xiong, Xiong & Li, Fen, 2023. "An algorithm for forecasting day-ahead wind power via novel long short-term memory and wind power ramp events," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PC).
    5. Lv, Sheng-Xiang & Wang, Lin, 2023. "Multivariate wind speed forecasting based on multi-objective feature selection approach and hybrid deep learning model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PE).
    6. Dai, Juchuan & Yang, Xin & Wen, Li, 2018. "Development of wind power industry in China: A comprehensive assessment," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 156-164.
    7. Qian, Zheng & Pei, Yan & Zareipour, Hamidreza & Chen, Niya, 2019. "A review and discussion of decomposition-based hybrid models for wind energy forecasting applications," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 235(C), pages 939-953.
    8. Wang, Jianzhou & Song, Yiliao & Liu, Feng & Hou, Ru, 2016. "Analysis and application of forecasting models in wind power integration: A review of multi-step-ahead wind speed forecasting models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 960-981.
    9. Dhiman, Harsh S. & Deb, Dipankar & Guerrero, Josep M., 2019. "Hybrid machine intelligent SVR variants for wind forecasting and ramp events," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 369-379.
    10. Lv, Sheng-Xiang & Wang, Lin, 2022. "Deep learning combined wind speed forecasting with hybrid time series decomposition and multi-objective parameter optimization," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 311(C).
    11. Shahid, Farah & Zameer, Aneela & Muneeb, Muhammad, 2021. "A novel genetic LSTM model for wind power forecast," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 223(C).
    12. Kisvari, Adam & Lin, Zi & Liu, Xiaolei, 2021. "Wind power forecasting – A data-driven method along with gated recurrent neural network," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 1895-1909.
    13. Ye, Lin & Zhao, Yongning & Zeng, Cheng & Zhang, Cihang, 2017. "Short-term wind power prediction based on spatial model," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 1067-1074.
    14. Wang, Deyun & Luo, Hongyuan & Grunder, Olivier & Lin, Yanbing, 2017. "Multi-step ahead wind speed forecasting using an improved wavelet neural network combining variational mode decomposition and phase space reconstruction," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 1345-1358.
    15. Wang, Yun & Zou, Runmin & Liu, Fang & Zhang, Lingjun & Liu, Qianyi, 2021. "A review of wind speed and wind power forecasting with deep neural networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).
    16. Kong, Xiaobing & Ma, Lele & Wang, Ce & Guo, Shifan & Abdelbaky, Mohamed Abdelkarim & Liu, Xiangjie & Lee, Kwang Y., 2022. "Large-scale wind farm control using distributed economic model predictive scheme," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 581-591.
    17. Alexey Mikhaylov & Nikita Moiseev & Kirill Aleshin & Thomas Burkhardt, 2020. "Global climate change and greenhouse effect," Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Issues, VsI Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Center, vol. 7(4), pages 2897-2913, June.
    18. Zhao, Jing & Guo, Yanling & Xiao, Xia & Wang, Jianzhou & Chi, Dezhong & Guo, Zhenhai, 2017. "Multi-step wind speed and power forecasts based on a WRF simulation and an optimized association method," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 197(C), pages 183-202.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Li, Xuehan & Wang, Wei & Ye, Lingling & Ren, Guorui & Fang, Fang & Liu, Jizhen & Chen, Zhe & Zhou, Qiang, 2024. "Improving frequency regulation ability for a wind-thermal power system by multi-objective optimized sliding mode control design," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 300(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wang, Xiaodi & Hao, Yan & Yang, Wendong, 2024. "Novel wind power ensemble forecasting system based on mixed-frequency modeling and interpretable base model selection strategy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 297(C).
    2. Wang, Yun & Zou, Runmin & Liu, Fang & Zhang, Lingjun & Liu, Qianyi, 2021. "A review of wind speed and wind power forecasting with deep neural networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).
    3. Ma, Zhengjing & Mei, Gang, 2022. "A hybrid attention-based deep learning approach for wind power prediction," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 323(C).
    4. Liu, Hui & Chen, Chao, 2019. "Data processing strategies in wind energy forecasting models and applications: A comprehensive review," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 249(C), pages 392-408.
    5. Hu, Jianming & Heng, Jiani & Wen, Jiemei & Zhao, Weigang, 2020. "Deterministic and probabilistic wind speed forecasting with de-noising-reconstruction strategy and quantile regression based algorithm," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 1208-1226.
    6. Joseph, Lionel P. & Deo, Ravinesh C. & Casillas-Pérez, David & Prasad, Ramendra & Raj, Nawin & Salcedo-Sanz, Sancho, 2024. "Short-term wind speed forecasting using an optimized three-phase convolutional neural network fused with bidirectional long short-term memory network model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 359(C).
    7. Parri, Srihari & Teeparthi, Kiran & Kosana, Vishalteja, 2023. "A hybrid VMD based contextual feature representation approach for wind speed forecasting," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 219(P1).
    8. Niu, Dongxiao & Sun, Lijie & Yu, Min & Wang, Keke, 2022. "Point and interval forecasting of ultra-short-term wind power based on a data-driven method and hybrid deep learning model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 254(PA).
    9. Wang, Yun & Xu, Houhua & Zou, Runmin & Zhang, Lingjun & Zhang, Fan, 2022. "A deep asymmetric Laplace neural network for deterministic and probabilistic wind power forecasting," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 196(C), pages 497-517.
    10. Wu, Binrong & Wang, Lin & Zeng, Yu-Rong, 2022. "Interpretable wind speed prediction with multivariate time series and temporal fusion transformers," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 252(C).
    11. Wang, Jianing & Zhu, Hongqiu & Zhang, Yingjie & Cheng, Fei & Zhou, Can, 2023. "A novel prediction model for wind power based on improved long short-term memory neural network," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 265(C).
    12. Zhang, Guowei & Zhang, Yi & Wang, Hui & Liu, Da & Cheng, Runkun & Yang, Di, 2024. "Short-term wind speed forecasting based on adaptive secondary decomposition and robust temporal convolutional network," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 288(C).
    13. Li, Min & Yang, Yi & He, Zhaoshuang & Guo, Xinbo & Zhang, Ruisheng & Huang, Bingqing, 2023. "A wind speed forecasting model based on multi-objective algorithm and interpretability learning," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 269(C).
    14. Lee, Yoonjae & Ha, Byeongmin & Hwangbo, Soonho, 2022. "Generative model-based hybrid forecasting model for renewable electricity supply using long short-term memory networks: A case study of South Korea's energy transition policy," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 69-87.
    15. Costa, Marcelo Azevedo & Ruiz-Cárdenas, Ramiro & Mineti, Leandro Brioschi & Prates, Marcos Oliveira, 2021. "Dynamic time scan forecasting for multi-step wind speed prediction," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 584-595.
    16. Bashir, Hassan & Sibtain, Muhammad & Hanay, Özge & Azam, Muhammad Imran & Qurat-ul-Ain, & Saleem, Snoober, 2023. "Decomposition and Harris hawks optimized multivariate wind speed forecasting utilizing sequence2sequence-based spatiotemporal attention," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 278(PB).
    17. Yang, Ting & Yang, Zhenning & Li, Fei & Wang, Hengyu, 2024. "A short-term wind power forecasting method based on multivariate signal decomposition and variable selection," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 360(C).
    18. Wen, Songkang & Li, Yanting & Su, Yan, 2022. "A new hybrid model for power forecasting of a wind farm using spatial–temporal correlations," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 198(C), pages 155-168.
    19. Li, Dan & Jiang, Fuxin & Chen, Min & Qian, Tao, 2022. "Multi-step-ahead wind speed forecasting based on a hybrid decomposition method and temporal convolutional networks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PC).
    20. He, Qingqing & Wang, Jianzhou & Lu, Haiyan, 2018. "A hybrid system for short-term wind speed forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 226(C), pages 756-771.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:270:y:2023:i:c:s0360544223003006. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.