IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v192y2020ics0360544219321930.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Day ahead powerful probabilistic wind power forecast using combined intelligent structure and fuzzy clustering algorithm

Author

Listed:
  • Li, Lei
  • Yin, Xiao-Li
  • Jia, Xin-Chun
  • Sobhani, Behrooz

Abstract

Nowadays, Operational power forecasts are associated with the one-value deterministic Numerical Weather Forecasting (NWF) simulation in the anticipated wind speed. This article introduced a novel predicting methodology called SSOFC-Apriori-WRP, which presents one-day-ahead wind power and speed forecasting. This methodology relies highly on a Weather Research and Prediction (WRP) simulation, a shark smell optimization (SSO), enhanced fuzzy clustering (EFC), and an Apriori association procedure. The wind speed prediction with the help of shaped WRP model was produced. Then by dividing wind speed predictions series into different parts, definite conditions were met and were introduced. Next the suggested methodology by the combination of SSO-optimized fuzzy clustering and Apriori algorithm withdraws the association rules, which are dominated among the anticipating errors in the divided waves and the shape features. The suggested methodology could be implemented to the other compared models and decrease the unreliability of the WRP simulation, if the association rules are used in the ultimate optimization process.

Suggested Citation

  • Li, Lei & Yin, Xiao-Li & Jia, Xin-Chun & Sobhani, Behrooz, 2020. "Day ahead powerful probabilistic wind power forecast using combined intelligent structure and fuzzy clustering algorithm," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:192:y:2020:i:c:s0360544219321930
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2019.116498
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544219321930
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2019.116498?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cheng, William Y.Y. & Liu, Yubao & Bourgeois, Alfred J. & Wu, Yonghui & Haupt, Sue Ellen, 2017. "Short-term wind forecast of a data assimilation/weather forecasting system with wind turbine anemometer measurement assimilation," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 340-351.
    2. Wang, Kejun & Qi, Xiaoxia & Liu, Hongda & Song, Jiakang, 2018. "Deep belief network based k-means cluster approach for short-term wind power forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 165(PA), pages 840-852.
    3. Sean D. Campbell & Francis X. Diebold, 2005. "Weather Forecasting for Weather Derivatives," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 100, pages 6-16, March.
    4. Li, Yanfei & Shi, Huipeng & Han, Fengze & Duan, Zhu & Liu, Hui, 2019. "Smart wind speed forecasting approach using various boosting algorithms, big multi-step forecasting strategy," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 540-553.
    5. Zhang, Jianfei & Kong, Lingjian & Qu, Jingguo & Wang, Shuang & Qu, Zhiguo, 2019. "Numerical and experimental investigation on configuration optimization of the large-size ionic wind pump," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 624-630.
    6. Khosravi, A. & Machado, L. & Nunes, R.O., 2018. "Time-series prediction of wind speed using machine learning algorithms: A case study Osorio wind farm, Brazil," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 224(C), pages 550-566.
    7. Nima Amjady & Oveis Abedinia, 2017. "Short Term Wind Power Prediction Based on Improved Kriging Interpolation, Empirical Mode Decomposition, and Closed-Loop Forecasting Engine," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(11), pages 1-18, November.
    8. Zhang, Zhendong & Ye, Lei & Qin, Hui & Liu, Yongqi & Wang, Chao & Yu, Xiang & Yin, Xingli & Li, Jie, 2019. "Wind speed prediction method using Shared Weight Long Short-Term Memory Network and Gaussian Process Regression," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 247(C), pages 270-284.
    9. Gualtieri, Giovanni, 2019. "A comprehensive review on wind resource extrapolation models applied in wind energy," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 215-233.
    10. Zhao, Xuejing & Wang, Chen & Su, Jinxia & Wang, Jianzhou, 2019. "Research and application based on the swarm intelligence algorithm and artificial intelligence for wind farm decision system," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 681-697.
    11. Hao, Ying & Dong, Lei & Liao, Xiaozhong & Liang, Jun & Wang, Lijie & Wang, Bo, 2019. "A novel clustering algorithm based on mathematical morphology for wind power generation prediction," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 572-585.
    12. Shahriari, M. & Cervone, G. & Clemente-Harding, L. & Delle Monache, L., 2020. "Using the analog ensemble method as a proxy measurement for wind power predictability," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 789-801.
    13. Zuluaga, Carlos D. & Álvarez, Mauricio A. & Giraldo, Eduardo, 2015. "Short-term wind speed prediction based on robust Kalman filtering: An experimental comparison," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 321-330.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hu, Shuai & Xiang, Yue & Zhang, Hongcai & Xie, Shanyi & Li, Jianhua & Gu, Chenghong & Sun, Wei & Liu, Junyong, 2021. "Hybrid forecasting method for wind power integrating spatial correlation and corrected numerical weather prediction," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 293(C).
    2. Yang, Mao & Guo, Yunfeng & Fan, Fulin & Huang, Tao, 2024. "Two-stage correction prediction of wind power based on numerical weather prediction wind speed superposition correction and improved clustering," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 302(C).
    3. Yang, Mao & Wang, Da & Xu, Chuanyu & Dai, Bozhi & Ma, Miaomiao & Su, Xin, 2023. "Power transfer characteristics in fluctuation partition algorithm for wind speed and its application to wind power forecasting," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 582-594.
    4. Bogdan Bochenek & Jakub Jurasz & Adam Jaczewski & Gabriel Stachura & Piotr Sekuła & Tomasz Strzyżewski & Marcin Wdowikowski & Mariusz Figurski, 2021. "Day-Ahead Wind Power Forecasting in Poland Based on Numerical Weather Prediction," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-18, April.
    5. Xiaohan Huang & Aihua Jiang, 2022. "Wind Power Generation Forecast Based on Multi-Step Informer Network," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(18), pages 1-17, September.
    6. da Silva, Ramon Gomes & Ribeiro, Matheus Henrique Dal Molin & Moreno, Sinvaldo Rodrigues & Mariani, Viviana Cocco & Coelho, Leandro dos Santos, 2021. "A novel decomposition-ensemble learning framework for multi-step ahead wind energy forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    7. Lau, Jat-Syu & Jiang, Yihuo & Li, Ziyuan & Qian, Qian, 2023. "Stochastic trading of storage systems in short term electricity markets considering intraday demand response market," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 280(C).
    8. Yun, Eunjeong & Hur, Jin, 2021. "Probabilistic estimation model of power curve to enhance power output forecasting of wind generating resources," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 223(C).
    9. Zelin Zhou & Yiyan Dai & Jun Xiao & Maoyi Liu & Jinxiang Zhang & Mingjin Zhang, 2022. "Research on Short-Time Wind Speed Prediction in Mountainous Areas Based on Improved ARIMA Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-12, November.
    10. Wang, Qianlin & Han, Jiaqi & Chen, Feng & Hu, Su & Yun, Cheng & Dou, Zhan & Yan, Tingjun & Yang, Guoan, 2024. "Modeling risk characterization networks for chemical processes based on multi-variate data," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 293(C).
    11. Fan, Huijing & Zhen, Zhao & Liu, Nian & Sun, Yiqian & Chang, Xiqiang & Li, Yu & Wang, Fei & Mi, Zengqiang, 2023. "Fluctuation pattern recognition based ultra-short-term wind power probabilistic forecasting method," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 266(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nathan Oaks Farrar & Mohd Hasan Ali & Dipankar Dasgupta, 2023. "Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning in Grid Connected Wind Turbine Control Systems: A Comprehensive Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-25, February.
    2. Liu, Hui & Chen, Chao, 2019. "Data processing strategies in wind energy forecasting models and applications: A comprehensive review," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 249(C), pages 392-408.
    3. Xu, Xuefang & Hu, Shiting & Shi, Peiming & Shao, Huaishuang & Li, Ruixiong & Li, Zhi, 2023. "Natural phase space reconstruction-based broad learning system for short-term wind speed prediction: Case studies of an offshore wind farm," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(PA).
    4. Liu, Xiaolei & Lin, Zi & Feng, Ziming, 2021. "Short-term offshore wind speed forecast by seasonal ARIMA - A comparison against GRU and LSTM," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    5. Yang, Mao & Wang, Da & Xu, Chuanyu & Dai, Bozhi & Ma, Miaomiao & Su, Xin, 2023. "Power transfer characteristics in fluctuation partition algorithm for wind speed and its application to wind power forecasting," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 582-594.
    6. Shengli Liao & Xudong Tian & Benxi Liu & Tian Liu & Huaying Su & Binbin Zhou, 2022. "Short-Term Wind Power Prediction Based on LightGBM and Meteorological Reanalysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(17), pages 1-21, August.
    7. Ahmad, Tanveer & Chen, Huanxin, 2019. "Deep learning for multi-scale smart energy forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 98-112.
    8. Bai, Yulong & Liu, Ming-De & Ding, Lin & Ma, Yong-Jie, 2021. "Double-layer staged training echo-state networks for wind speed prediction using variational mode decomposition," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 301(C).
    9. Jianzhou Wang & Chunying Wu & Tong Niu, 2019. "A Novel System for Wind Speed Forecasting Based on Multi-Objective Optimization and Echo State Network," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-34, January.
    10. Liu, Hui & Duan, Zhu & Li, Yanfei & Lu, Haibo, 2018. "A novel ensemble model of different mother wavelets for wind speed multi-step forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 228(C), pages 1783-1800.
    11. Zhao, Jing & Guo, Zhenhai & Guo, Yanling & Lin, Wantao & Zhu, Wenjin, 2021. "A self-organizing forecast of day-ahead wind speed: Selective ensemble strategy based on numerical weather predictions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 218(C).
    12. Guanjun Liu & Chao Wang & Hui Qin & Jialong Fu & Qin Shen, 2022. "A Novel Hybrid Machine Learning Model for Wind Speed Probabilistic Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(19), pages 1-16, September.
    13. Zheng, Ling & Zhou, Bin & Or, Siu Wing & Cao, Yijia & Wang, Huaizhi & Li, Yong & Chan, Ka Wing, 2021. "Spatio-temporal wind speed prediction of multiple wind farms using capsule network," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 718-730.
    14. Liu, Guanjun & Wang, Yun & Qin, Hui & Shen, Keyan & Liu, Shuai & Shen, Qin & Qu, Yuhua & Zhou, Jianzhong, 2023. "Probabilistic spatiotemporal forecasting of wind speed based on multi-network deep ensembles method," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 209(C), pages 231-247.
    15. Huang, Hao-Hsuan & Huang, Yun-Hsun, 2024. "Applying green learning to regional wind power prediction and fluctuation risk assessment," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 295(C).
    16. Yechi Zhang & Jianzhou Wang & Haiyan Lu, 2019. "Research and Application of a Novel Combined Model Based on Multiobjective Optimization for Multistep-Ahead Electric Load Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-27, May.
    17. Zhou, Yilin & Wang, Jianzhou & Lu, Haiyan & Zhao, Weigang, 2022. "Short-term wind power prediction optimized by multi-objective dragonfly algorithm based on variational mode decomposition," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    18. Gao, Huanxiang & Hu, Gang & Zhang, Dongqin & Jiang, Wenjun & Ren, Hehe & Chen, Wenli, 2024. "Prediction of wind fields in mountains at multiple elevations using deep learning models," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 353(PA).
    19. Zucatelli, P.J. & Nascimento, E.G.S. & Santos, A.Á.B. & Arce, A.M.G. & Moreira, D.M., 2021. "An investigation on deep learning and wavelet transform to nowcast wind power and wind power ramp: A case study in Brazil and Uruguay," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
    20. Nguyen, Hoang-Phuong & Baraldi, Piero & Zio, Enrico, 2021. "Ensemble empirical mode decomposition and long short-term memory neural network for multi-step predictions of time series signals in nuclear power plants," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:192:y:2020:i:c:s0360544219321930. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.