IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v269y2023ics0360544223001810.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

High spatial granularity residential heating load forecast based on Dendrite net model

Author

Listed:
  • Zhang, Lidong
  • Li, Jiao
  • Xu, Xiandong
  • Liu, Fengrui
  • Guo, Yuanjun
  • Yang, Zhile
  • Hu, Tianyu

Abstract

With the application of smart meters, more information is available from residential buildings for support heat load forecast. Yet, there is still a lack of an effective method to exploit the value of the high spatial granularity information, particularly for residential communities with high randomness in human behaviors. To fill this gap, this paper proposes a data-driven heat load forecast method based on the field measurements of smart meters A white-box machine learning algorithm, namely Dendritic Network, is employed to aggregate and analyze data obtained from different locations of district heating systems. An online correction mechanism is then proposed to regulate the forecast horizon and ensure the adaptiveness of the machine learning model under different scenarios. The results demonstrate that the dendritic network employed in the proposed machine learning method shows higher forecast accuracy, the root-mean-square error is 0.0029, in some research cases the coefficient of determination can reach 0.99–1, and wide scope of application in the area of heat load forecast.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhang, Lidong & Li, Jiao & Xu, Xiandong & Liu, Fengrui & Guo, Yuanjun & Yang, Zhile & Hu, Tianyu, 2023. "High spatial granularity residential heating load forecast based on Dendrite net model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 269(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:269:y:2023:i:c:s0360544223001810
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2023.126787
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544223001810
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2023.126787?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ma, Weiwu & Fang, Song & Liu, Gang & Zhou, Ruoyu, 2017. "Modeling of district load forecasting for distributed energy system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 181-205.
    2. Guelpa, Elisa & Marincioni, Ludovica & Verda, Vittorio, 2019. "Towards 4th generation district heating: Prediction of building thermal load for optimal management," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 510-522.
    3. Sarwar, Riasat & Cho, Heejin & Cox, Sam J. & Mago, Pedro J. & Luck, Rogelio, 2017. "Field validation study of a time and temperature indexed autoregressive with exogenous (ARX) model for building thermal load prediction," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 483-496.
    4. Zheng, Xuejing & Sun, Qihang & Wang, Yaran & Zheng, Lijun & Gao, Xinyong & You, Shijun & Zhang, Huan & Shi, Kaiyu, 2021. "Thermo-hydraulic coupled simulation and analysis of a real large-scale complex district heating network in Tianjin," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
    5. Zhang, Yichi & Xia, Jianjun & Fang, Hao & Zuo, Hetao & Jiang, Yi, 2019. "Roadmap towards clean heating in 2035: Case study of inner Mongolia, China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    6. Maljkovic, Danica & Basic, Bojana Dalbelo, 2020. "Determination of influential parameters for heat consumption in district heating systems using machine learning," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 201(C).
    7. Liu, Xiangfei & Ren, Mifeng & Yang, Zhile & Yan, Gaowei & Guo, Yuanjun & Cheng, Lan & Wu, Chengke, 2022. "A multi-step predictive deep reinforcement learning algorithm for HVAC control systems in smart buildings," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 259(C).
    8. Wang, Zhe & Hong, Tianzhen & Piette, Mary Ann, 2020. "Building thermal load prediction through shallow machine learning and deep learning," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(C).
    9. Lumbreras, Mikel & Garay-Martinez, Roberto & Arregi, Beñat & Martin-Escudero, Koldobika & Diarce, Gonzalo & Raud, Margus & Hagu, Indrek, 2022. "Data driven model for heat load prediction in buildings connected to District Heating by using smart heat meters," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PD).
    10. Dongsheng Yang & Xinyi Zhang & Bowen Zhou, 2017. "Modeling and Control of Air Conditioning Loads for Consuming Distributed Energy Sources," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-17, October.
    11. Wang, Jian Qi & Du, Yu & Wang, Jing, 2020. "LSTM based long-term energy consumption prediction with periodicity," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    12. Zhu, Xiaodong & Zhao, Shihao & Yang, Zhile & Zhang, Ning & Xu, Xinzhi, 2022. "A parallel meta-heuristic method for solving large scale unit commitment considering the integration of new energy sectors," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PC).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jiang, Tieliu & Zhao, Yuze & Wang, Shengwen & Zhang, Lidong & Li, Guohao, 2024. "Aerodynamic characterization of a H-Darrieus wind turbine with a Drag-Disturbed Flow device installation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 292(C).
    2. Yang, Mao & Guo, Yunfeng & Fan, Fulin & Huang, Tao, 2024. "Two-stage correction prediction of wind power based on numerical weather prediction wind speed superposition correction and improved clustering," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 302(C).
    3. Yang, Mao & Guo, Yunfeng & Huang, Yutong, 2023. "Wind power ultra-short-term prediction method based on NWP wind speed correction and double clustering division of transitional weather process," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 282(C).
    4. Jintao Zhang & Chao Wang & Wenhao Liu & Jianyang Zhu & Yangyang Yan & Hui Zhao, 2023. "Optimization of the Energy Capture Performance of the Lift-Drag Hybrid Vertical-Axis Wind Turbine Based on the Taguchi Experimental Method and CFD Simulation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-20, May.
    5. Yang, Shi-guan & Zhou, Jia-le & Hu, Zhuang & Zhou, Xin-yue & Cai, Qi & Xie, Jin-heng & Wu, Yang-wen & Lu, Qiang, 2023. "Site selection decision framework for biomass pyrolysis project based on a mixed method under probabilistic linguistic environment and low carbon perspective: A case study in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 272(C).
    6. Tong, Guoqiang & Yang, Shengbing & Li, Yan & Feng, Fang, 2023. "Effects of blade tip flow on aerodynamic characteristics of straight-bladed vertical axis wind turbines," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
    7. Hua, Pengmin & Wang, Haichao & Xie, Zichan & Lahdelma, Risto, 2024. "District heating load patterns and short-term forecasting for buildings and city level," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 289(C).
    8. Khajavi, Hamed & Rastgoo, Amir, 2023. "Improving the prediction of heating energy consumed at residential buildings using a combination of support vector regression and meta-heuristic algorithms," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 272(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Li, Guannan & Li, Fan & Ahmad, Tanveer & Liu, Jiangyan & Li, Tao & Fang, Xi & Wu, Yubei, 2022. "Performance evaluation of sequence-to-sequence-Attention model for short-term multi-step ahead building energy predictions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 259(C).
    2. Andrea Menapace & Simone Santopietro & Rudy Gargano & Maurizio Righetti, 2021. "Stochastic Generation of District Heat Load," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-17, August.
    3. Guo, Yurun & Wang, Shugang & Wang, Jihong & Zhang, Tengfei & Ma, Zhenjun & Jiang, Shuang, 2024. "Key district heating technologies for building energy flexibility: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 189(PB).
    4. Lu, Yakai & Tian, Zhe & Zhou, Ruoyu & Liu, Wenjing, 2021. "A general transfer learning-based framework for thermal load prediction in regional energy system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    5. Chung, Won Hee & Gu, Yeong Hyeon & Yoo, Seong Joon, 2022. "District heater load forecasting based on machine learning and parallel CNN-LSTM attention," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 246(C).
    6. Zhong, Wei & Feng, Encheng & Lin, Xiaojie & Xie, Jinfang, 2022. "Research on data-driven operation control of secondary loop of district heating system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PB).
    7. Liu, Zhikai & Zhang, Huan & Wang, Yaran & Song, Zixu & You, Shijun & Jiang, Yan & Wu, Zhangxiang, 2022. "A thermal-hydraulic coupled simulation approach for the temperature and flow rate control strategy evaluation of the multi-room radiator heating system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 246(C).
    8. Zheng, Xuejing & Shi, Zhiyuan & Wang, Yaran & Zhang, Huan & Tang, Zhiyun, 2024. "Digital twin modeling for district heating network based on hydraulic resistance identification and heat load prediction," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 288(C).
    9. Jason Runge & Radu Zmeureanu, 2021. "A Review of Deep Learning Techniques for Forecasting Energy Use in Buildings," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-26, January.
    10. Xiaoyu Lin & Hang Yu & Meng Wang & Chaoen Li & Zi Wang & Yin Tang, 2021. "Electricity Consumption Forecast of High-Rise Office Buildings Based on the Long Short-Term Memory Method," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-21, August.
    11. Zhou, Yuan & Wang, Jiangjiang & Liu, Yi & Yan, Rujing & Ma, Yanpeng, 2021. "Incorporating deep learning of load predictions to enhance the optimal active energy management of combined cooling, heating and power system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 233(C).
    12. Guelpa, Elisa & Marincioni, Ludovica & Capone, Martina & Deputato, Stefania & Verda, Vittorio, 2019. "Thermal load prediction in district heating systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 693-703.
    13. Adam Kula & Albert Smalcerz & Maciej Sajkowski & Zygmunt Kamiński, 2021. "Analysis of Office Rooms Energy Consumption Data in Respect to Meteorological and Direct Sun Exposure Conditions," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-20, November.
    14. Xiaoyu Gao & Chengying Qi & Guixiang Xue & Jiancai Song & Yahui Zhang & Shi-ang Yu, 2020. "Forecasting the Heat Load of Residential Buildings with Heat Metering Based on CEEMDAN-SVR," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(22), pages 1-19, November.
    15. Østergaard, P.A. & Lund, H. & Thellufsen, J.Z. & Sorknæs, P. & Mathiesen, B.V., 2022. "Review and validation of EnergyPLAN," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    16. Guelpa, Elisa & Bischi, Aldo & Verda, Vittorio & Chertkov, Michael & Lund, Henrik, 2019. "Towards future infrastructures for sustainable multi-energy systems: A review," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 2-21.
    17. Marzullo, Thibault & Keane, Marcus M. & Geron, Marco & Monaghan, Rory F.D., 2019. "A computational toolchain for the automatic generation of multiple Reduced-Order Models from CFD simulations," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 511-519.
    18. Fu, Chun & Miller, Clayton, 2022. "Using Google Trends as a proxy for occupant behavior to predict building energy consumption," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 310(C).
    19. Arash Mohammadi Fallah & Ehsan Ghafourian & Ladan Shahzamani Sichani & Hossein Ghafourian & Behdad Arandian & Moncef L. Nehdi, 2023. "Novel Neural Network Optimized by Electrostatic Discharge Algorithm for Modification of Buildings Energy Performance," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-15, February.
    20. Saima Akhtar & Sulman Shahzad & Asad Zaheer & Hafiz Sami Ullah & Heybet Kilic & Radomir Gono & Michał Jasiński & Zbigniew Leonowicz, 2023. "Short-Term Load Forecasting Models: A Review of Challenges, Progress, and the Road Ahead," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(10), pages 1-29, May.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:269:y:2023:i:c:s0360544223001810. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.