IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/renene/v146y2020icp2112-2123.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Gaussian Process Regression for numerical wind speed prediction enhancement

Author

Listed:
  • Cai, Haoshu
  • Jia, Xiaodong
  • Feng, Jianshe
  • Li, Wenzhe
  • Hsu, Yuan-Ming
  • Lee, Jay

Abstract

This paper studies the application of Multi-Task Gaussian Process (MTGP) regression model to enhance the numerical predictions of wind speed. In the proposed method, a Support Vector Regressor (SVR) is first utilized to fuse the predictions from Numerical Weather Predictors (NWP). The purpose of this regressor is to map the numerical predictions at coarse geographical nodes to the desired turbine location. In subsequent analysis, this SVR prediction output is further enhanced by the MTGP regression model. Based on the validation results on the real-world data from large-scale off-shore wind farm, the prediction accuracies of the NWP are significantly improved at both the short-term horizons (1–6 h ahead) and the long-term horizons (7–24 h ahead) by employing the proposed method. More importantly, the short-term prediction accuracy after enhancement is found comparable or even better than the cutting-edge statistical models for short-term extrapolations.

Suggested Citation

  • Cai, Haoshu & Jia, Xiaodong & Feng, Jianshe & Li, Wenzhe & Hsu, Yuan-Ming & Lee, Jay, 2020. "Gaussian Process Regression for numerical wind speed prediction enhancement," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 2112-2123.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:146:y:2020:i:c:p:2112-2123
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2019.08.018
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960148119312054
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.renene.2019.08.018?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Shukur, Osamah Basheer & Lee, Muhammad Hisyam, 2015. "Daily wind speed forecasting through hybrid KF-ANN model based on ARIMA," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 637-647.
    2. Jung, Jaesung & Broadwater, Robert P., 2014. "Current status and future advances for wind speed and power forecasting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 762-777.
    3. Jin, Jingliang & Zhou, Dequn & Zhou, Peng & Qian, Shuqu & Zhang, Mingming, 2016. "Dispatching strategies for coordinating environmental awareness and risk perception in wind power integrated system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 453-463.
    4. Colak, Ilhami & Sagiroglu, Seref & Yesilbudak, Mehmet, 2012. "Data mining and wind power prediction: A literature review," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 241-247.
    5. Men, Zhongxian & Yee, Eugene & Lien, Fue-Sang & Wen, Deyong & Chen, Yongsheng, 2016. "Short-term wind speed and power forecasting using an ensemble of mixture density neural networks," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(P1), pages 203-211.
    6. Wang, Han & Han, Shuang & Liu, Yongqian & Yan, Jie & Li, Li, 2019. "Sequence transfer correction algorithm for numerical weather prediction wind speed and its application in a wind power forecasting system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 237(C), pages 1-10.
    7. Chen, Kuilin & Yu, Jie, 2014. "Short-term wind speed prediction using an unscented Kalman filter based state-space support vector regression approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 690-705.
    8. Zhao, Jing & Guo, Zhen-Hai & Su, Zhong-Yue & Zhao, Zhi-Yuan & Xiao, Xia & Liu, Feng, 2016. "An improved multi-step forecasting model based on WRF ensembles and creative fuzzy systems for wind speed," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 808-826.
    9. Monfared, Mohammad & Rastegar, Hasan & Kojabadi, Hossein Madadi, 2009. "A new strategy for wind speed forecasting using artificial intelligent methods," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 845-848.
    10. Dong, Lei & Wang, Lijie & Khahro, Shahnawaz Farhan & Gao, Shuang & Liao, Xiaozhong, 2016. "Wind power day-ahead prediction with cluster analysis of NWP," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 1206-1212.
    11. Cassola, Federico & Burlando, Massimiliano, 2012. "Wind speed and wind energy forecast through Kalman filtering of Numerical Weather Prediction model output," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 154-166.
    12. Jia, Xiaodong & Jin, Chao & Buzza, Matt & Wang, Wei & Lee, Jay, 2016. "Wind turbine performance degradation assessment based on a novel similarity metric for machine performance curves," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 1191-1201.
    13. Santamaría-Bonfil, G. & Reyes-Ballesteros, A. & Gershenson, C., 2016. "Wind speed forecasting for wind farms: A method based on support vector regression," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 790-809.
    14. Liu, Hui & Tian, Hong-qi & Li, Yan-fei, 2012. "Comparison of two new ARIMA-ANN and ARIMA-Kalman hybrid methods for wind speed prediction," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 415-424.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zhao, Xinyu & Bai, Mingliang & Yang, Xusheng & Liu, Jinfu & Yu, Daren & Chang, Juntao, 2021. "Short-term probabilistic predictions of wind multi-parameter based on one-dimensional convolutional neural network with attention mechanism and multivariate copula distribution estimation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    2. Xiong, Xiong & Zou, Ruilin & Sheng, Tao & Zeng, Weilin & Ye, Xiaoling, 2023. "An ultra-short-term wind speed correction method based on the fluctuation characteristics of wind speed," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
    3. Li, Wenzhe & Jia, Xiaodong & Li, Xiang & Wang, Yinglu & Lee, Jay, 2021. "A Markov model for short term wind speed prediction by integrating the wind acceleration information," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 242-253.
    4. Fu, Wenlong & Fu, Yuchen & Li, Bailing & Zhang, Hairong & Zhang, Xuanrui & Liu, Jiarui, 2023. "A compound framework incorporating improved outlier detection and correction, VMD, weight-based stacked generalization with enhanced DESMA for multi-step short-term wind speed forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 348(C).
    5. Li, Ke & Shen, Ruifang & Wang, Zhenguo & Yan, Bowen & Yang, Qingshan & Zhou, Xuhong, 2023. "An efficient wind speed prediction method based on a deep neural network without future information leakage," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 267(C).
    6. Yang, Jian & Wang, Li & Song, Dongran & Huang, Chaoneng & Huang, Liansheng & Wang, Junlei, 2022. "Incorporating environmental impacts into zero-point shifting diagnosis of wind turbines yaw angle," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PA).
    7. Yan, Bowen & Shen, Ruifang & Li, Ke & Wang, Zhenguo & Yang, Qingshan & Zhou, Xuhong & Zhang, Le, 2023. "Spatio-temporal correlation for simultaneous ultra-short-term wind speed prediction at multiple locations," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 284(C).
    8. Dong, Xing & Zhang, Chenghui & Sun, Bo, 2022. "Optimization strategy based on robust model predictive control for RES-CCHP system under multiple uncertainties," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 325(C).
    9. Duan, Zhu & Liu, Hui & Li, Ye & Nikitas, Nikolaos, 2022. "Time-variant post-processing method for long-term numerical wind speed forecasts based on multi-region recurrent graph network," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 259(C).
    10. Zeynep Ceylan, 2020. "Assessment of agricultural energy consumption of Turkey by MLR and Bayesian optimized SVR and GPR models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(6), pages 944-956, September.
    11. Tartakovsky, Alexandre M. & Ma, Tong & Barajas-Solano, David A. & Tipireddy, Ramakrishna, 2023. "Physics-informed Gaussian process regression for states estimation and forecasting in power grids," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 967-980.
    12. Nadire Cavus & Yakubu Bala Mohammed & Abdulsalam Ya’u Gital & Mohammed Bulama & Adamu Muhammad Tukur & Danlami Mohammed & Muhammad Lamir Isah & Abba Hassan, 2022. "Emotional Artificial Neural Networks and Gaussian Process-Regression-Based Hybrid Machine-Learning Model for Prediction of Security and Privacy Effects on M-Banking Attractiveness," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-21, May.
    13. Zheng, Ling & Zhou, Bin & Or, Siu Wing & Cao, Yijia & Wang, Huaizhi & Li, Yong & Chan, Ka Wing, 2021. "Spatio-temporal wind speed prediction of multiple wind farms using capsule network," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 718-730.
    14. Xin Zhao & Haikun Wei & Chenxi Li & Kanjian Zhang, 2020. "A Hybrid Nonlinear Forecasting Strategy for Short-Term Wind Speed," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-15, April.
    15. Paulino José García-Nieto & Esperanza García-Gonzalo & José Ramón Alonso Fernández & Cristina Díaz Muñiz, 2020. "A New Predictive Model for Evaluating Chlorophyll-a Concentration in Tanes Reservoir by Using a Gaussian Process Regression," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(15), pages 4921-4941, December.
    16. Paweł Piotrowski & Marcin Kopyt & Dariusz Baczyński & Sylwester Robak & Tomasz Gulczyński, 2021. "Hybrid and Ensemble Methods of Two Days Ahead Forecasts of Electric Energy Production in a Small Wind Turbine," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-25, February.
    17. Yang, Mao & Guo, Yunfeng & Huang, Yutong, 2023. "Wind power ultra-short-term prediction method based on NWP wind speed correction and double clustering division of transitional weather process," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 282(C).
    18. Cai, Haoshu & Jia, Xiaodong & Feng, Jianshe & Yang, Qibo & Li, Wenzhe & Li, Fei & Lee, Jay, 2021. "A unified Bayesian filtering framework for multi-horizon wind speed prediction with improved accuracy," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 709-719.
    19. Han, Yan & Mi, Lihua & Shen, Lian & Cai, C.S. & Liu, Yuchen & Li, Kai & Xu, Guoji, 2022. "A short-term wind speed prediction method utilizing novel hybrid deep learning algorithms to correct numerical weather forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 312(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cai, Haoshu & Jia, Xiaodong & Feng, Jianshe & Yang, Qibo & Hsu, Yuan-Ming & Chen, Yudi & Lee, Jay, 2019. "A combined filtering strategy for short term and long term wind speed prediction with improved accuracy," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 1082-1090.
    2. Wang, Jianzhou & Niu, Tong & Lu, Haiyan & Guo, Zhenhai & Yang, Wendong & Du, Pei, 2018. "An analysis-forecast system for uncertainty modeling of wind speed: A case study of large-scale wind farms," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 492-512.
    3. Lahouar, A. & Ben Hadj Slama, J., 2017. "Hour-ahead wind power forecast based on random forests," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 529-541.
    4. Li, Wenzhe & Jia, Xiaodong & Li, Xiang & Wang, Yinglu & Lee, Jay, 2021. "A Markov model for short term wind speed prediction by integrating the wind acceleration information," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 242-253.
    5. Zhao, Weigang & Wei, Yi-Ming & Su, Zhongyue, 2016. "One day ahead wind speed forecasting: A resampling-based approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 886-901.
    6. Akçay, Hüseyin & Filik, Tansu, 2017. "Short-term wind speed forecasting by spectral analysis from long-term observations with missing values," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 191(C), pages 653-662.
    7. Tian, Chengshi & Hao, Yan & Hu, Jianming, 2018. "A novel wind speed forecasting system based on hybrid data preprocessing and multi-objective optimization," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 231(C), pages 301-319.
    8. Zhao, Jing & Guo, Zhenhai & Guo, Yanling & Lin, Wantao & Zhu, Wenjin, 2021. "A self-organizing forecast of day-ahead wind speed: Selective ensemble strategy based on numerical weather predictions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 218(C).
    9. Liu, Chenyu & Zhang, Xuemin & Mei, Shengwei & Zhen, Zhao & Jia, Mengshuo & Li, Zheng & Tang, Haiyan, 2022. "Numerical weather prediction enhanced wind power forecasting: Rank ensemble and probabilistic fluctuation awareness," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 313(C).
    10. Hu, Jianming & Heng, Jiani & Wen, Jiemei & Zhao, Weigang, 2020. "Deterministic and probabilistic wind speed forecasting with de-noising-reconstruction strategy and quantile regression based algorithm," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 1208-1226.
    11. Guanjun Liu & Chao Wang & Hui Qin & Jialong Fu & Qin Shen, 2022. "A Novel Hybrid Machine Learning Model for Wind Speed Probabilistic Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(19), pages 1-16, September.
    12. Sandra Minerva Valdivia-Bautista & José Antonio Domínguez-Navarro & Marco Pérez-Cisneros & Carlos Jesahel Vega-Gómez & Beatriz Castillo-Téllez, 2023. "Artificial Intelligence in Wind Speed Forecasting: A Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(5), pages 1-28, March.
    13. Yang, Zhongshan & Wang, Jian, 2018. "A combination forecasting approach applied in multistep wind speed forecasting based on a data processing strategy and an optimized artificial intelligence algorithm," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 230(C), pages 1108-1125.
    14. Wang, Han & Han, Shuang & Liu, Yongqian & Yan, Jie & Li, Li, 2019. "Sequence transfer correction algorithm for numerical weather prediction wind speed and its application in a wind power forecasting system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 237(C), pages 1-10.
    15. Zhao, Jing & Guo, Yanling & Xiao, Xia & Wang, Jianzhou & Chi, Dezhong & Guo, Zhenhai, 2017. "Multi-step wind speed and power forecasts based on a WRF simulation and an optimized association method," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 197(C), pages 183-202.
    16. Xiu, Chunbo & Wang, Tiantian & Tian, Meng & Li, Yanqing & Cheng, Yi, 2014. "Short-term prediction method of wind speed series based on fractal interpolation," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 89-97.
    17. Nantian Huang & Chong Yuan & Guowei Cai & Enkai Xing, 2016. "Hybrid Short Term Wind Speed Forecasting Using Variational Mode Decomposition and a Weighted Regularized Extreme Learning Machine," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-19, November.
    18. Jannik Schütz Roungkvist & Peter Enevoldsen, 2020. "Timescale classification in wind forecasting: A review of the state‐of‐the‐art," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(5), pages 757-768, August.
    19. Naik, Jyotirmayee & Dash, Sujit & Dash, P.K. & Bisoi, Ranjeeta, 2018. "Short term wind power forecasting using hybrid variational mode decomposition and multi-kernel regularized pseudo inverse neural network," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 180-212.
    20. Zhang, Guangchao & Zheng, Xiaoxiao & Liu, Shi & Chen, Minxin, 2022. "Three-dimensional wind field reconstruction using tucker decomposition with optimal sensor placement," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 260(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:146:y:2020:i:c:p:2112-2123. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/renewable-energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.