Decoupling economic development from carbon emissions: Insights from Chinese provinces

Decoupling economic development from carbon emissions is crucial for achieving sustainable development, particularly at the regional level. It also guides coordinated socio-economic development between regions. However, fewer studies analyze the long-term and short-term factors affecting decoupling from a dynamic perspective. Using annual data from 30 Chinese provinces from 2000 to 2021, this study assesses the level of decoupling in each province at both temporal and spatial levels and explores the factors influencing decoupling in the long and short term. The empirical results show that in the long run, the growth of industrial structure, R&D investment intensity, urban-rural income gap, and foreign trade promote the decoupling of economic development from carbon emissions. Conversely, the growth of energy consumption structure and energy prices inhibit decoupling. Short-term factors affecting decoupling vary significantly from province to province. To ensure the accuracy of the empirical results, this study conducted multidimensional heterogeneity and robustness analyses. Combined with the impulse response and variance decomposition results, it provides rational suggestions for effective decoupling strategies. This study offers a scientific basis for formulating sustainable development policies in various regions and serves as a valuable reference for other developing countries aiming to achieve harmonious economic and environmental development.