IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v300y2024ics0360544224013161.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Analysis of the evolution path of new energy system under polymorphic uncertainty—A case study of China

Author

Listed:
  • Fang, Guochang
  • Meng, Aoxiang
  • Wang, Qingling
  • Zhou, Huixin
  • Tian, Lixin

Abstract

The exploration and promotion of new energy constitute a significant initiative for numerous countries in their pursuit of sustainable development and efforts to alleviate climate change. However, the influence of a multitude of uncertain factors on the evolutionary path of new energy is currently poorly studied. By establishing a dynamic evolution model for new energy under polymorphic uncertainty, this paper analyses the complex interaction between new energy, economic growth, and carbon trading over the period 2020–2060, using China as a case study. We employ numerical simulation and sensitivity analysis to investigate the evolutionary trajectories of the new energy system under various parameter value scenarios. We show that the evolutionary trajectories will undergo substantial fluctuations before 2030, subsequently stabilizing from 2030 onwards. The study highlights that an excessively rapid pace of new energy development is detrimental to new energy systems, whereas energy storage system deployment has the opposite effect. There exists a significant risk of the system collapsing as a result of slow new energy development, over-building energy storage facilities, or over-intervening in carbon trading. We also find that overdevelopment of energy storage system may have greater negative impacts on the economic system than underdevelopment.

Suggested Citation

  • Fang, Guochang & Meng, Aoxiang & Wang, Qingling & Zhou, Huixin & Tian, Lixin, 2024. "Analysis of the evolution path of new energy system under polymorphic uncertainty—A case study of China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 300(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:300:y:2024:i:c:s0360544224013161
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2024.131543
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544224013161
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2024.131543?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Abolhosseini, Shahrouz & Heshmati, Almas, 2014. "The main support mechanisms to finance renewable energy development," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 876-885.
    2. Noah Kittner & Felix Lill & Daniel M. Kammen, 2017. "Energy storage deployment and innovation for the clean energy transition," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 2(9), pages 1-6, September.
    3. Zhang, Yunhan & Li, Yan & Zhao, Wanli & Ji, Qiang, 2024. "Climate risk performance and returns integration of Chinese listed energy companies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    4. Cudjoe, Dan & Wang, Hong & zhu, Bangzhu, 2022. "Thermochemical treatment of daily COVID-19 single-use facemask waste: Power generation potential and environmental impact analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 249(C).
    5. Geng, Jiang-Bo & Du, Ya-Juan & Ji, Qiang & Zhang, Dayong, 2021. "Modeling return and volatility spillover networks of global new energy companies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    6. Chen, Siyuan & Li, Zheng & Li, Weiqi, 2021. "Integrating high share of renewable energy into power system using customer-sited energy storage," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    7. Song, Yan & Zhang, Lu & Zhang, Ming, 2022. "Research on the impact of public climate policy cognition on low-carbon travel based on SOR theory—Evidence from China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 261(PA).
    8. Peng, Tianduo & Ren, Lei & Ou, Xunmin, 2023. "Development and application of life-cycle energy consumption and carbon footprint analysis model for passenger vehicles in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 282(C).
    9. Sun, Chuanwang & Xu, Zhehong & Zheng, Hongwei, 2023. "Green transformation of the building industry and the government policy effects: Policy simulation based on the DSGE model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 268(C).
    10. Ma, Xiaochen & Pan, Yanchun & Zhang, Manzi & Ma, Jianhua & Yang, Wen, 2024. "Impact of carbon emission trading and renewable energy development policy on the sustainability of electricity market: A stackelberg game analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    11. Dai, Hancheng & Xie, Yang & Liu, Jingyu & Masui, Toshihiko, 2018. "Aligning renewable energy targets with carbon emissions trading to achieve China's INDCs: A general equilibrium assessment," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 82(P3), pages 4121-4131.
    12. Qian, Lanping & Bai, Yang & Wang, Wenya & Meng, Fanyi & Chen, Zhisong, 2023. "Natural gas crisis, system resilience and emergency responses: A China case," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 276(C).
    13. Barnea, Gil & Hagemann, Christian & Wurster, Stefan, 2022. "Policy instruments matter: Support schemes for renewable energy capacity in worldwide comparison," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    14. Zhang, Hongyu & Zhang, Da & Guo, Siyue & Zhang, Xiliang, 2024. "Impact of benchmark tightening design under output-based ETS on China's power sector," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 288(C).
    15. Zhang, Wenbin & Tian, Lixin & Wang, Minggang & Zhen, Zaili & Fang, Guochang, 2016. "The evolution model of electricity market on the stable development in China and its dynamic analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 344-359.
    16. Zhang, Yanfang & Guo, Siyuan & Shi, Xunpeng & Qian, Xiangyan & Nie, Rui, 2021. "A market instrument to achieve carbon neutrality: Is China’s energy-consumption permit trading scheme effective?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 299(C).
    17. Liu, Dunnan & Zhao, Weidong & Li, Zhihao & Xu, Xiaofeng & Xiao, Bowen & Niu, Dongxiao, 2018. "Can hydropower develop as expected in China? A scenario analysis based on system dynamics model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 118-129.
    18. Wang, Chutong & Zhang, Xiaoyan & Wang, Yucui & Xiong, Houbo & Ding, Xi & Guo, Chuangxin, 2023. "Pricing method of electric-thermal heterogeneous shared energy storage service," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 281(C).
    19. Ma, Guangcheng & Qin, Jiahong & Zhang, Yumeng, 2023. "Does the carbon emissions trading system reduce carbon emissions by promoting two-way FDI in developing countries? Evidence from Chinese listed companies and cities," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    20. Lin, Boqiang & Jia, Zhijie, 2020. "Is emission trading scheme an opportunity for renewable energy in China? A perspective of ETS revenue redistributions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(C).
    21. Park, Joshua K. & Meng, Xiangcai, 2024. "Crowding out or crowding in? Reevaluating the effect of government spending on private economic activities," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PA), pages 102-117.
    22. Zafirakis, Dimitrios & Chalvatzis, Konstantinos J. & Baiocchi, Giovanni & Daskalakis, George, 2013. "Modeling of financial incentives for investments in energy storage systems that promote the large-scale integration of wind energy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 138-154.
    23. Mac Clay, Pablo & Börner, Jan & Sellare, Jorge, 2022. "Institutional and macroeconomic stability mediate the effect of auctions on renewable energy capacity," Discussion Papers 329643, University of Bonn, Center for Development Research (ZEF).
    24. Bolwig, Simon & Bazbauers, Gatis & Klitkou, Antje & Lund, Peter D. & Blumberga, Andra & Gravelsins, Armands & Blumberga, Dagnija, 2019. "Review of modelling energy transitions pathways with application to energy system flexibility," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 440-452.
    25. Hottenrott, Hanna & Richstein, Robert, 2020. "Start-up subsidies: Does the policy instrument matter?," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(1).
    26. Hu, Junjie & Wang, Yudong & Dong, Lei, 2024. "Low carbon-oriented planning of shared energy storage station for multiple integrated energy systems considering energy-carbon flow and carbon emission reduction," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 290(C).
    27. Yan, Yue & Sun, Mei & Guo, Zhilong, 2022. "How do carbon cap-and-trade mechanisms and renewable portfolio standards affect renewable energy investment?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    28. Fernando, Yudi & Hor, Wei Lin, 2017. "Impacts of energy management practices on energy efficiency and carbon emissions reduction: A survey of malaysian manufacturing firms," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 62-73.
    29. Brunner, Eric J. & Schwegman, David J., 2022. "Commercial wind energy installations and local economic development: Evidence from U.S. counties," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    30. Tan, Qinliang & Ding, Yihong & Zheng, Jin & Dai, Mei & Zhang, Yimei, 2021. "The effects of carbon emissions trading and renewable portfolio standards on the integrated wind–photovoltaic–thermal power-dispatching system: Real case studies in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    31. Parrish Bergquist & Christopher Warshaw, 2023. "How climate policy commitments influence energy systems and the economies of US states," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-9, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Su, Chi-Wei & Pang, Li-Dong & Qin, Meng & Lobonţ, Oana-Ramona & Umar, Muhammad, 2023. "The spillover effects among fossil fuel, renewables and carbon markets: Evidence under the dual dilemma of climate change and energy crises," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 274(C).
    2. Teng, Minmin & Lv, Kunfeng & Han, Chuanfeng & Liu, Pihui, 2023. "Trading behavior strategy of power plants and the grid under renewable portfolio standards in China: A tripartite evolutionary game analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 284(C).
    3. Qi He & Hongli Jiang, 2024. "Does the Energy-Consumption Permit Trading Scheme Improve Carbon Emission Performance? Evidence from a Quasi-Natural Experiment in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(1), pages 1-27, January.
    4. Zhang, Yue-Jun & Liu, Jing-Yue & Woodward, Richard T., 2023. "Has Chinese Certified Emission Reduction trading reduced rural poverty in China?," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 67(03), April.
    5. Zhang, Wen-Yi & Chen, Yue & Wang, Yi & Xu, Yunjian, 2023. "Equilibrium analysis of a peer-to-peer energy trading market with shared energy storage in a power transmission grid," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 274(C).
    6. Liu, Jing-Yue & Zhang, Yue-Jun, 2021. "Has carbon emissions trading system promoted non-fossil energy development in China?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 302(C).
    7. Yin, Linfei & Tao, Min, 2023. "Balanced broad learning prediction model for carbon emissions of integrated energy systems considering distributed ground source heat pump heat storage systems and carbon capture & storage," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 329(C).
    8. Fang, Guochang & Chen, Gang & Yang, Kun & Yin, Weijun & Tian, Lixin, 2023. "Can green tax policy promote China's energy transformation?— A nonlinear analysis from production and consumption perspectives," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 269(C).
    9. Shobande, Olatunji A. & Ogbeifun, Lawrence & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar, 2024. "Extricating the impacts of emissions trading system and energy transition on carbon intensity," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 357(C).
    10. Yu, Zhongjue & Geng, Yong & Calzadilla, Alvaro & Bleischwitz, Raimund, 2022. "China's unconventional carbon emissions trading market: The impact of a rate-based cap in the power generation sector," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 255(C).
    11. Chen, Shuyang & Wang, Can, 2023. "Inequality impacts of ETS penalties: A case study on the recent Chinese nationwide ETS market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    12. Chen, Pengyu & Dagestani, Abd Alwahed, 2023. "Urban planning policy and clean energy development Harmony- evidence from smart city pilot policy in China," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 210(C), pages 251-257.
    13. Li, Xingwei & Huang, Yicheng, 2024. "Exploring the mechanisms affecting energy consumption in the construction industry using an integrated theoretical framework: Evidence from the Yangtze River economic Belt," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 299(C).
    14. Zhang, Xinyue & Guo, Xiaopeng & Zhang, Xingping, 2024. "Mutual conversion mechanisms for environmental interest products to jointly enhance synergistic effect between power, CET and TGC markets in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    15. Peng, Qiao & Liu, Weilong & Shi, Yufeng & Dai, Yuanyuan & Yu, Kunjie & Graham, Byron, 2024. "Multi-objective electricity generation expansion planning towards renewable energy policy objectives under uncertainties," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    16. Mustaffa, Nur Kamaliah & Kudus, Sakhiah Abdul, 2022. "Challenges and way forward towards best practices of energy efficient building in Malaysia," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 259(C).
    17. Carsten Helm & Mathias Mier, 2020. "Steering the Energy Transition in a World of Intermittent Electricity Supply: Optimal Subsidies and Taxes for Renewables Storage," ifo Working Paper Series 330, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    18. Hong, Zitao & Peng, Zhen & Zhang, Liumei, 2022. "Game analysis on the choice of emission trading among industrial enterprises driven by data," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PE).
    19. Shen, Yiran & Liu, Chang & Sun, Xiaolei & Guo, Kun, 2023. "Investor sentiment and the Chinese new energy stock market: A risk–return perspective," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 395-408.
    20. Karatayev, Marat & Clarke, Michèle L., 2016. "A review of current energy systems and green energy potential in Kazakhstan," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 491-504.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:300:y:2024:i:c:s0360544224013161. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.