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Gross electricity consumption forecasting using LSTM and SARIMA approaches: A case study of Türkiye

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  • Bilgili, Mehmet
  • Pinar, Engin

Abstract

Gross electricity consumption (GEC) forecasts are an essential tool for policymakers in developing countries. It is widely acknowledged that GEC forecasting models contribute significantly to more effective electricity management policies, behavioral changes within the energy supply industry, and reduced energy consumption. In this regard, it is essential to evaluate the approaches that allow users to anticipate their future energy usage based on their own consumption history data and other variables. This motivates researchers to develop efficient GEC forecasting models using historical time series data and appropriate estimation strategies. In this study, therefore, a machine-learning model employing a deep-learning technique based on a long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network was utilized to forecast GEC in Türkiye. The LSTM model was compared to the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model to determine the amount of gross energy usage. Although the results are close to each other, the LSTM model outperformed the SARIMA model in general, with the lowest MAPE (2.42%), MAE (215.35 GWh), and RMSE (329.9 GWh) values and the greatest R-value (0.9992).

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  • Bilgili, Mehmet & Pinar, Engin, 2023. "Gross electricity consumption forecasting using LSTM and SARIMA approaches: A case study of Türkiye," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 284(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:284:y:2023:i:c:s0360544223019692
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2023.128575
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    1. Gulay, Emrah & Sen, Mustafa & Akgun, Omer Burak, 2024. "Forecasting electricity production from various energy sources in Türkiye: A predictive analysis of time series, deep learning, and hybrid models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 286(C).

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