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Forecasting Turkish electricity consumption: A critical analysis of single and hybrid models

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  • Çağlayan-Akay, Ebru
  • Topal, Kadriye Hilal

Abstract

Forecasting of electricity consumption is a critical issue, due to its importance in the planning of the energy trading countries. Several new techniques such as hybrid models are used as well as classical single models to estimate electricity consumption. This study aims to get the best electricity consumption model of Türkiye. For this, the forecasting performances of single and hybrid electricity consumption models, SARIMA is the time series model, ANNs and MLPs are machine learning single models and SARIMA-ANNs and SARIMA-MLPs are hybrid models of machine learning, are compared. This study employs new hybrid models and examines whether the multiplicative model of Wang et al. or the combined model of Khashei and Bijari is superior to than Zhang's hybrid model commonly used as the ARIMA-hybrid model with well known flaws. The results show that hybrid models are more accurate than single time series/machine learning models when forecasting Turkish electricity consumption. Moreover, The Khashei and Bijari hybrid model outperformed the other models and it was determined as the best model for forecasting Türkiye's electricity consumption.

Suggested Citation

  • Çağlayan-Akay, Ebru & Topal, Kadriye Hilal, 2024. "Forecasting Turkish electricity consumption: A critical analysis of single and hybrid models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 305(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:305:y:2024:i:c:s0360544224018899
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2024.132115
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Electricity consumption; SARIMA; Hybrid models; Machine learning;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis

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