IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v193y2020ics0360544219324739.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Effective energy consumption forecasting using enhanced bagged echo state network

Author

Listed:
  • Hu, Huanling
  • Wang, Lin
  • Peng, Lu
  • Zeng, Yu-Rong

Abstract

Precise analysis and forecasting of energy consumption not only affects energy security and environment of a nation but also provides a useful decision basis for policy makers. This study proposes a new enhanced optimization model based on the bagged echo state network improved by differential evolution algorithm to estimate energy consumption. Bagging is applied to reduce forecasting error and improve generalization of network. Further, three parameters of echo state network are optimized using differential evolution algorithm. Thus, the proposed model combines the merits of three techniques which are echo state network, bagging, and differential evolution algorithm. The proposed model is applied to two comparative examples and an extended application to verify its accuracy and reliability. Results of the comparative examples show the proposed model achieves better forecasting performance compared with basic echo state network and other existing popular models. Mean absolute percentage error of the proposed model is 0.215% for total energy consumption forecasting of China. Therefore, the proposed model can be a satisfactory tool for forecasting energy consumption because of its high accuracy and stability.

Suggested Citation

  • Hu, Huanling & Wang, Lin & Peng, Lu & Zeng, Yu-Rong, 2020. "Effective energy consumption forecasting using enhanced bagged echo state network," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:193:y:2020:i:c:s0360544219324739
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2019.116778
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544219324739
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2019.116778?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tsai, Miao-Shan & Chang, Ssu-Li, 2015. "Taiwan’s 2050 low carbon development roadmap: An evaluation with the MARKAL model," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 178-191.
    2. Xiaomin Xu & Dongxiao Niu & Ming Fu & Huicong Xia & Han Wu, 2015. "A Multi Time Scale Wind Power Forecasting Model of a Chaotic Echo State Network Based on a Hybrid Algorithm of Particle Swarm Optimization and Tabu Search," Energies, MDPI, vol. 8(11), pages 1-21, November.
    3. Canyurt, Olcay Ersel & Ozturk, Harun Kemal, 2008. "Application of genetic algorithm (GA) technique on demand estimation of fossil fuels in Turkey," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 2562-2569, July.
    4. Wang, Lin & Lv, Sheng-Xiang & Zeng, Yu-Rong, 2018. "Effective sparse adaboost method with ESN and FOA for industrial electricity consumption forecasting in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 1013-1031.
    5. Erdogdu, Erkan, 2007. "Electricity demand analysis using cointegration and ARIMA modelling: A case study of Turkey," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 1129-1146, February.
    6. Wei, Nan & Li, Changjun & Peng, Xiaolong & Li, Yang & Zeng, Fanhua, 2019. "Daily natural gas consumption forecasting via the application of a novel hybrid model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 250(C), pages 358-368.
    7. Shao, Zhen & Gao, Fei & Zhang, Qiang & Yang, Shan-Lin, 2015. "Multivariate statistical and similarity measure based semiparametric modeling of the probability distribution: A novel approach to the case study of mid-long term electricity consumption forecasting i," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 502-518.
    8. Wu, Qunli & Peng, Chenyang, 2017. "A hybrid BAG-SA optimal approach to estimate energy demand of China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 985-995.
    9. Zhao, Yang & Li, Jianping & Yu, Lean, 2017. "A deep learning ensemble approach for crude oil price forecasting," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 9-16.
    10. Zhang, Chuanguo & Lin, Yan, 2012. "Panel estimation for urbanization, energy consumption and CO2 emissions: A regional analysis in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 488-498.
    11. Wang, Jianjun & Li, Li & Niu, Dongxiao & Tan, Zhongfu, 2012. "An annual load forecasting model based on support vector regression with differential evolution algorithm," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 65-70.
    12. Yu, Lean & Zhao, Yaqing & Tang, Ling & Yang, Zebin, 2019. "Online big data-driven oil consumption forecasting with Google trends," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 213-223.
    13. Askarzadeh, Alireza, 2014. "Comparison of particle swarm optimization and other metaheuristics on electricity demand estimation: A case study of Iran," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 484-491.
    14. Sainan Jin & Liangjun Su & Aman Ullah, 2014. "Robustify Financial Time Series Forecasting with Bagging," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(5-6), pages 575-605, August.
    15. Laubscher, Ryno, 2019. "Time-series forecasting of coal-fired power plant reheater metal temperatures using encoder-decoder recurrent neural networks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    16. Peng, Lu & Liu, Shan & Liu, Rui & Wang, Lin, 2018. "Effective long short-term memory with differential evolution algorithm for electricity price prediction," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 1301-1314.
    17. Ahmad, Tanveer & Chen, Huanxin, 2018. "Potential of three variant machine-learning models for forecasting district level medium-term and long-term energy demand in smart grid environment," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 1008-1020.
    18. Huang, Yophy & Bor, Yunchang Jeffrey & Peng, Chieh-Yu, 2011. "The long-term forecast of Taiwan’s energy supply and demand: LEAP model application," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(11), pages 6790-6803.
    19. Zhou, P. & Ang, B.W. & Poh, K.L., 2006. "A trigonometric grey prediction approach to forecasting electricity demand," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 31(14), pages 2839-2847.
    20. Wu, Wenqing & Ma, Xin & Zeng, Bo & Wang, Yong & Cai, Wei, 2019. "Forecasting short-term renewable energy consumption of China using a novel fractional nonlinear grey Bernoulli model," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 70-87.
    21. Limanond, Thirayoot & Jomnonkwao, Sajjakaj & Srikaew, Artit, 2011. "Projection of future transport energy demand of Thailand," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 2754-2763, May.
    22. Dantas, Tiago Mendes & Cyrino Oliveira, Fernando Luiz & Varela Repolho, Hugo Miguel, 2017. "Air transportation demand forecast through Bagging Holt Winters methods," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 116-123.
    23. de Oliveira, Erick Meira & Cyrino Oliveira, Fernando Luiz, 2018. "Forecasting mid-long term electric energy consumption through bagging ARIMA and exponential smoothing methods," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 776-788.
    24. Comodi, G. & Cioccolanti, L. & Gargiulo, M., 2012. "Municipal scale scenario: Analysis of an Italian seaside town with MarkAL-TIMES," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 303-315.
    25. Zeng, Yu-Rong & Zeng, Yi & Choi, Beomjin & Wang, Lin, 2017. "Multifactor-influenced energy consumption forecasting using enhanced back-propagation neural network," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 381-396.
    26. Wang, Lin & Hu, Huanling & Ai, Xue-Yi & Liu, Hua, 2018. "Effective electricity energy consumption forecasting using echo state network improved by differential evolution algorithm," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 801-815.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Javad Saadat & Mohsen Farshad & Hussein Eliasi, 2023. "Optimizing Structure and Internal Unit Weights of Echo State Network for an Efficient LMS-Based Online Training," SN Operations Research Forum, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 1-14, March.
    2. Song, Xiang & Wang, Dingyu & Zhang, Xuantao & He, Yuan & Wang, Yong, 2022. "A comparison of the operation of China's carbon trading market and energy market and their spillover effects," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    3. Ivan S. Maksymov, 2023. "Analogue and Physical Reservoir Computing Using Water Waves: Applications in Power Engineering and Beyond," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(14), pages 1-26, July.
    4. Wang, Meng & Wang, Wei & Wu, Lifeng, 2022. "Application of a new grey multivariate forecasting model in the forecasting of energy consumption in 7 regions of China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    5. Elsa Chaerun Nisa & Yean-Der Kuan, 2021. "Comparative Assessment to Predict and Forecast Water-Cooled Chiller Power Consumption Using Machine Learning and Deep Learning Algorithms," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-18, January.
    6. Alejandro J. del Real & Fernando Dorado & Jaime Durán, 2020. "Energy Demand Forecasting Using Deep Learning: Applications for the French Grid," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-15, May.
    7. Eren Bas & Erol Egrioglu & Ufuk Yolcu, 2021. "Bootstrapped Holt Method with Autoregressive Coefficients Based on Harmony Search Algorithm," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 3(4), pages 1-11, November.
    8. Xin Ma & Yubin Cai & Hong Yuan & Yanqiao Deng, 2023. "Partially Linear Component Support Vector Machine for Primary Energy Consumption Forecasting of the Electric Power Sector in the United States," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-26, April.
    9. Hu, Huanling & Wang, Lin & Lv, Sheng-Xiang, 2020. "Forecasting energy consumption and wind power generation using deep echo state network," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 598-613.
    10. Peng, Lu & Wang, Lin & Xia, De & Gao, Qinglu, 2022. "Effective energy consumption forecasting using empirical wavelet transform and long short-term memory," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PB).
    11. Li, Hui & Wu, Zixuan & Yuan, Xing & Yang, Yixuan & He, Xiaoqiang & Duan, Huiming, 2022. "The research on modeling and application of dynamic grey forecasting model based on energy price-energy consumption-economic growth," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 257(C).
    12. Hu, Huanling & Wang, Lin & Tao, Rui, 2021. "Wind speed forecasting based on variational mode decomposition and improved echo state network," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 729-751.
    13. Stefenon, Stefano Frizzo & Seman, Laio Oriel & Aquino, Luiza Scapinello & Coelho, Leandro dos Santos, 2023. "Wavelet-Seq2Seq-LSTM with attention for time series forecasting of level of dams in hydroelectric power plants," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 274(C).
    14. Gabriel Trierweiler Ribeiro & João Guilherme Sauer & Naylene Fraccanabbia & Viviana Cocco Mariani & Leandro dos Santos Coelho, 2020. "Bayesian Optimized Echo State Network Applied to Short-Term Load Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-19, May.
    15. Bai, Yulong & Liu, Ming-De & Ding, Lin & Ma, Yong-Jie, 2021. "Double-layer staged training echo-state networks for wind speed prediction using variational mode decomposition," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 301(C).
    16. Fatemi Bushehri, Seyyed Mohammad Mehdi & Dehghan Khavari, Saeed & Mirjalili, Seyed Hossein & Babaei Meybodi, Hamid & Sardari Zarchi, Mohsen, 2022. "Energy Consumption Prediction in Iran: A Hybrid Machine Learning and Genetic Algorithm Method with Sustainable Development Considerations," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 6(2).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hu, Huanling & Wang, Lin & Lv, Sheng-Xiang, 2020. "Forecasting energy consumption and wind power generation using deep echo state network," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 598-613.
    2. Debnath, Kumar Biswajit & Mourshed, Monjur, 2018. "Forecasting methods in energy planning models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 297-325.
    3. Wu, Qunli & Peng, Chenyang, 2017. "A hybrid BAG-SA optimal approach to estimate energy demand of China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 985-995.
    4. Peng, Lu & Wang, Lin & Xia, De & Gao, Qinglu, 2022. "Effective energy consumption forecasting using empirical wavelet transform and long short-term memory," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PB).
    5. Yuan, Xiao-Chen & Sun, Xun & Zhao, Weigang & Mi, Zhifu & Wang, Bing & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2017. "Forecasting China’s regional energy demand by 2030: A Bayesian approach," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 85-95.
    6. Suganthi, L. & Samuel, Anand A., 2012. "Energy models for demand forecasting—A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 1223-1240.
    7. Gao, Feng & Chi, Hong & Shao, Xueyan, 2021. "Forecasting residential electricity consumption using a hybrid machine learning model with online search data," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 300(C).
    8. Bilgili, Mehmet & Pinar, Engin, 2023. "Gross electricity consumption forecasting using LSTM and SARIMA approaches: A case study of Türkiye," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 284(C).
    9. Lin Sun & Suisui Chen & Jiucheng Xu & Yun Tian, 2019. "Improved Monarch Butterfly Optimization Algorithm Based on Opposition-Based Learning and Random Local Perturbation," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2019, pages 1-20, February.
    10. Wang, Lin & Hu, Huanling & Ai, Xue-Yi & Liu, Hua, 2018. "Effective electricity energy consumption forecasting using echo state network improved by differential evolution algorithm," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 801-815.
    11. Liyang Tang, 2020. "Application of Nonlinear Autoregressive with Exogenous Input (NARX) neural network in macroeconomic forecasting, national goal setting and global competitiveness assessment," Papers 2005.08735, arXiv.org.
    12. Yu, Shiwei & Wei, Yi-Ming & Wang, Ke, 2012. "A PSO–GA optimal model to estimate primary energy demand of China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 329-340.
    13. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
      • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    14. Xiong, Pingping & Li, Kailing & Shu, Hui & Wang, Junjie, 2021. "Forecast of natural gas consumption in the Asia-Pacific region using a fractional-order incomplete gamma grey model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).
    15. Yu, Shi-wei & Zhu, Ke-jun, 2012. "A hybrid procedure for energy demand forecasting in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 396-404.
    16. Kaboli, S. Hr. Aghay & Selvaraj, J. & Rahim, N.A., 2016. "Long-term electric energy consumption forecasting via artificial cooperative search algorithm," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 115(P1), pages 857-871.
    17. Wang, Lin & Lv, Sheng-Xiang & Zeng, Yu-Rong, 2018. "Effective sparse adaboost method with ESN and FOA for industrial electricity consumption forecasting in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 1013-1031.
    18. Wang, Xiaoyu & Luo, Dongkun & Zhao, Xu & Sun, Zhu, 2018. "Estimates of energy consumption in China using a self-adaptive multi-verse optimizer-based support vector machine with rolling cross-validation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 539-548.
    19. Abdulkerim Karaaslan & Mesliha Gezen, 2017. "Forecasting of Turkey s Sectoral Energy Demand by Using Fuzzy Grey Regression Model," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 7(1), pages 67-77.
    20. Hu, Huanling & Wang, Lin & Tao, Rui, 2021. "Wind speed forecasting based on variational mode decomposition and improved echo state network," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 729-751.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:193:y:2020:i:c:s0360544219324739. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.