IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jmathe/v10y2022i23p4486-d986386.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Daily Peak-Electricity-Demand Forecasting Based on Residual Long Short-Term Network

Author

Listed:
  • Hyunsoo Kim

    (Department of Smart City, Chung-Ang University, Seoul 06974, Republic of Korea)

  • Jiseok Jeong

    (Department of Smart City, Chung-Ang University, Seoul 06974, Republic of Korea)

  • Changwan Kim

    (Department of Smart City, Chung-Ang University, Seoul 06974, Republic of Korea)

Abstract

Forecasting the electricity demand of buildings is a key step in preventing a high concentration of electricity demand and optimizing the operation of national power systems. Recently, the overall performance of electricity-demand forecasting has been improved through the application of long short-term memory (LSTM) networks, which are well-suited to processing time-series data. However, previous studies have focused on improving the accuracy in forecasting only overall electricity demand, but not peak demand. Therefore, this study proposes adding residual learning to the LSTM approach to improve the forecast accuracy of both peak and total electricity demand. Using a residual block, the residual LSTM proposed in this study can map the residual function, which is the difference between the hypothesis and the observed value, and subsequently learn a pattern for the residual load. The proposed model delivered root mean square errors (RMSE) of 10.5 and 6.91 for the peak and next-day electricity demand forecasts, respectively, outperforming the benchmark models evaluated. In conclusion, the proposed model provides highly accurate forecasting information, which can help consumers achieve an even distribution of load concentration and countries achieve the stable operation of the national power system.

Suggested Citation

  • Hyunsoo Kim & Jiseok Jeong & Changwan Kim, 2022. "Daily Peak-Electricity-Demand Forecasting Based on Residual Long Short-Term Network," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(23), pages 1-17, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:10:y:2022:i:23:p:4486-:d:986386
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/10/23/4486/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/10/23/4486/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Daniyal Alghazzawi & Omaimah Bamasag & Aiiad Albeshri & Iqra Sana & Hayat Ullah & Muhammad Zubair Asghar, 2022. "Efficient Prediction of Court Judgments Using an LSTM+CNN Neural Network Model with an Optimal Feature Set," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-30, February.
    2. Kim, Tae-Young & Cho, Sung-Bae, 2019. "Predicting residential energy consumption using CNN-LSTM neural networks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 182(C), pages 72-81.
    3. Rahman, Aowabin & Srikumar, Vivek & Smith, Amanda D., 2018. "Predicting electricity consumption for commercial and residential buildings using deep recurrent neural networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 212(C), pages 372-385.
    4. Wang, Qiang & Li, Shuyu & Li, Rongrong, 2018. "Forecasting energy demand in China and India: Using single-linear, hybrid-linear, and non-linear time series forecast techniques," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 821-831.
    5. Vaghefi, A. & Jafari, M.A. & Bisse, Emmanuel & Lu, Y. & Brouwer, J., 2014. "Modeling and forecasting of cooling and electricity load demand," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 186-196.
    6. Bedi, Jatin & Toshniwal, Durga, 2019. "Deep learning framework to forecast electricity demand," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(C), pages 1312-1326.
    7. Fu, Song & Zhang, Yongjian & Lin, Lin & Zhao, Minghang & Zhong, Shi-sheng, 2021. "Deep residual LSTM with domain-invariance for remaining useful life prediction across domains," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    8. Fan, Cheng & Xiao, Fu & Wang, Shengwei, 2014. "Development of prediction models for next-day building energy consumption and peak power demand using data mining techniques," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 1-10.
    9. Fan, Cheng & Wang, Jiayuan & Gang, Wenjie & Li, Shenghan, 2019. "Assessment of deep recurrent neural network-based strategies for short-term building energy predictions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 236(C), pages 700-710.
    10. Cai, Mengmeng & Pipattanasomporn, Manisa & Rahman, Saifur, 2019. "Day-ahead building-level load forecasts using deep learning vs. traditional time-series techniques," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 236(C), pages 1078-1088.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wang, Ran & Lu, Shilei & Feng, Wei, 2020. "A novel improved model for building energy consumption prediction based on model integration," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(C).
    2. Jason Runge & Radu Zmeureanu, 2021. "A Review of Deep Learning Techniques for Forecasting Energy Use in Buildings," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-26, January.
    3. Ding, Zhikun & Chen, Weilin & Hu, Ting & Xu, Xiaoxiao, 2021. "Evolutionary double attention-based long short-term memory model for building energy prediction: Case study of a green building," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 288(C).
    4. Ibrahim, Muhammad Sohail & Dong, Wei & Yang, Qiang, 2020. "Machine learning driven smart electric power systems: Current trends and new perspectives," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 272(C).
    5. Li, Ao & Xiao, Fu & Zhang, Chong & Fan, Cheng, 2021. "Attention-based interpretable neural network for building cooling load prediction," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 299(C).
    6. Chitalia, Gopal & Pipattanasomporn, Manisa & Garg, Vishal & Rahman, Saifur, 2020. "Robust short-term electrical load forecasting framework for commercial buildings using deep recurrent neural networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 278(C).
    7. Ng, Rong Wang & Begam, Kasim Mumtaj & Rajkumar, Rajprasad Kumar & Wong, Yee Wan & Chong, Lee Wai, 2021. "An improved self-organizing incremental neural network model for short-term time-series load prediction," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 292(C).
    8. Thomas Steens & Jan-Simon Telle & Benedikt Hanke & Karsten von Maydell & Carsten Agert & Gian-Luca Di Modica & Bernd Engel & Matthias Grottke, 2021. "A Forecast-Based Load Management Approach for Commercial Buildings Demonstrated on an Integration of BEV," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-25, June.
    9. Jun Hao & Xiaolei Sun & Qianqian Feng, 2020. "A Novel Ensemble Approach for the Forecasting of Energy Demand Based on the Artificial Bee Colony Algorithm," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-25, January.
    10. Liu, Che & Li, Fan & Zhang, Chenghui & Sun, Bo & Zhang, Guanguan, 2023. "A day-ahead prediction method for high-resolution electricity consumption in residential units," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 265(C).
    11. Zou, Rongwei & Yang, Qiliang & Xing, Jianchun & Zhou, Qizhen & Xie, Liqiang & Chen, Wenjie, 2024. "Predicting the electric power consumption of office buildings based on dynamic and static hybrid data analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 290(C).
    12. Salam, Abdulwahed & El Hibaoui, Abdelaaziz, 2021. "Energy consumption prediction model with deep inception residual network inspiration and LSTM," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 97-109.
    13. Chaturvedi, Shobhit & Rajasekar, Elangovan & Natarajan, Sukumar & McCullen, Nick, 2022. "A comparative assessment of SARIMA, LSTM RNN and Fb Prophet models to forecast total and peak monthly energy demand for India," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    14. Bilgili, Mehmet & Pinar, Engin, 2023. "Gross electricity consumption forecasting using LSTM and SARIMA approaches: A case study of Türkiye," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 284(C).
    15. Jiang, Ben & Li, Yu & Rezgui, Yacine & Zhang, Chengyu & Wang, Peng & Zhao, Tianyi, 2024. "Multi-source domain generalization deep neural network model for predicting energy consumption in multiple office buildings," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 299(C).
    16. Fan, Cheng & Xiao, Fu & Yan, Chengchu & Liu, Chengliang & Li, Zhengdao & Wang, Jiayuan, 2019. "A novel methodology to explain and evaluate data-driven building energy performance models based on interpretable machine learning," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 235(C), pages 1551-1560.
    17. Khan, Waqas & Liao, Juo Yu & Walker, Shalika & Zeiler, Wim, 2022. "Impact assessment of varied data granularities from commercial buildings on exploration and learning mechanism," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 319(C).
    18. Hwang, Jun Kwon & Yun, Geun Young & Lee, Sukho & Seo, Hyeongjoon & Santamouris, Mat, 2020. "Using deep learning approaches with variable selection process to predict the energy performance of a heating and cooling system," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 1227-1245.
    19. Wang, Zeyu & Liu, Jian & Zhang, Yuanxin & Yuan, Hongping & Zhang, Ruixue & Srinivasan, Ravi S., 2021. "Practical issues in implementing machine-learning models for building energy efficiency: Moving beyond obstacles," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    20. Kumari, Pratima & Toshniwal, Durga, 2021. "Long short term memory–convolutional neural network based deep hybrid approach for solar irradiance forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 295(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:10:y:2022:i:23:p:4486-:d:986386. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.