IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v276y2023ics0360544223006801.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Unveiling bidding uncertainties in electricity markets: A Bayesian deep learning framework based on accurate variational inference

Author

Listed:
  • Wu, Shengyang
  • Ding, Zhaohao
  • Wang, Jingyu
  • Shi, Dongyuan

Abstract

With the ever-increasing level of bidding freedom bestowed to participants in deregulated electricity markets, bidding strategies have become more diversified and complicated, inevitably giving rise to the growth of market uncertainties. Some researchers have developed tools to predict the bidding behaviors of generation companies (GENCOs) considering uncertainties. However, there still remains a gap in enhancing the performance of probabilistic Bidding Behavior Forecasting (BBF) and understanding the sources of bidding uncertainties in electricity markets. This paper proposes a holistic Bayesian Deep Learning (BDL) framework based on Accurate Variational Inference (AVI) to capture both aleatoric uncertainty and epistemic uncertainty, two important uncertainties in bidding behaviors. The introduced framework also procures higher BBF accuracy and reasonable computation cost compared with existing techniques. Derivatives of GENCOs’ bidding uncertainty are ascertained by implementing a new metric to quantify the impact of influence factors. A numerical experiment is conducted using data from National Electricity Market (NEM) in Australia to demonstrate the performance of the proposed framework.

Suggested Citation

  • Wu, Shengyang & Ding, Zhaohao & Wang, Jingyu & Shi, Dongyuan, 2023. "Unveiling bidding uncertainties in electricity markets: A Bayesian deep learning framework based on accurate variational inference," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 276(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:276:y:2023:i:c:s0360544223006801
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2023.127286
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544223006801
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2023.127286?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Liu, Jinqi & Wang, Jihong & Cardinal, Joel, 2022. "Evolution and reform of UK electricity market," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    2. Liu, Yangyang & Shen, Zhongqi & Tang, Xiaowei & Lian, Hongbo & Li, Jiarui & Gong, Jinxia, 2019. "Worst-case conditional value-at-risk based bidding strategy for wind-hydro hybrid systems under probability distribution uncertainties," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 256(C).
    3. Xiao, Xiangsheng & Wang, Jianxiao & Lin, Rui & Hill, David J. & Kang, Chongqing, 2020. "Large-scale aggregation of prosumers toward strategic bidding in joint energy and regulation markets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 271(C).
    4. Wu, Jiahui & Wang, Jidong & Kong, Xiangyu, 2022. "Strategic bidding in a competitive electricity market: An intelligent method using Multi-Agent Transfer Learning based on reinforcement learning," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 256(C).
    5. Kara, Güray & Pisciella, Paolo & Tomasgard, Asgeir & Farahmand, Hossein & Crespo del Granado, Pedro, 2022. "Stochastic local flexibility market design, bidding, and dispatch for distribution grid operations," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 253(C).
    6. Matamala, Yolanda & Feijoo, Felipe, 2021. "A two-stage stochastic Stackelberg model for microgrid operation with chance constraints for renewable energy generation uncertainty," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 303(C).
    7. Guo, Hongye & Chen, Qixin & Shahidehpour, Mohammad & Xia, Qing & Kang, Chongqing, 2022. "Bidding behaviors of GENCOs under bounded rationality with renewable energy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 250(C).
    8. Zhang, Xinyue & Guo, Xiaopeng & Zhang, Xingping, 2023. "Bidding modes for renewable energy considering electricity-carbon integrated market mechanism based on multi-agent hybrid game," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PA).
    9. Liu, Xin & Li, Yang & Lin, Xueshan & Guo, Jiqun & Shi, Yunpeng & Shen, Yunwei, 2022. "Dynamic bidding strategy for a demand response aggregator in the frequency regulation market," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 314(C).
    10. Saeian, Hosein & Niknam, Taher & Zare, Mohsen & Aghaei, Jamshid, 2022. "Coordinated optimal bidding strategies methods of aggregated microgrids: A game theory-based demand side management under an electricity market environment," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 245(C).
    11. Li, Gong & Shi, Jing & Qu, Xiuli, 2011. "Modeling methods for GenCo bidding strategy optimization in the liberalized electricity spot market–A state-of-the-art review," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 4686-4700.
    12. David M. Blei & Alp Kucukelbir & Jon D. McAuliffe, 2017. "Variational Inference: A Review for Statisticians," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 112(518), pages 859-877, April.
    13. Corsatea, Teodora Diana & Giaccaria, Sergio, 2018. "Market regulation and environmental productivity changes in the electricity and gas sector of 13 observed EU countries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 1286-1297.
    14. Ochoa, Tomás & Gil, Esteban & Angulo, Alejandro & Valle, Carlos, 2022. "Multi-agent deep reinforcement learning for efficient multi-timescale bidding of a hybrid power plant in day-ahead and real-time markets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 317(C).
    15. Shen, Ziqi & Wei, Wei & Wu, Lei & Shafie-khah, Miadreza & Catalão, João P.S., 2021. "Economic dispatch of power systems with LMP-dependent demands: A non-iterative MILP model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 233(C).
    16. Sirin, Selahattin Murat & Erdogan, Fakir H., 2013. "R&D expenditures in liberalized electricity markets: The case of Turkey," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 491-498.
    17. Mahvi, M. & Ardehali, M.M., 2011. "Optimal bidding strategy in a competitive electricity market based on agent-based approach and numerical sensitivity analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 6367-6374.
    18. Lee, Kuan-Cheng & Yang, Hong-Tzer & Tang, Wenjun, 2022. "Data-driven online interactive bidding strategy for demand response," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 319(C).
    19. Shafiekhani, Morteza & Ahmadi, Abdollah & Homaee, Omid & Shafie-khah, Miadreza & Catalão, João P.S., 2022. "Optimal bidding strategy of a renewable-based virtual power plant including wind and solar units and dispatchable loads," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PD).
    20. Zhou, Anhua & Li, Jun, 2021. "Investigate the impact of market reforms on the improvement of manufacturing energy efficiency under China’s provincial-level data," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Huang, Siwan & Shi, Jianheng & Wang, Baoyue & An, Na & Li, Li & Hou, Xuebing & Wang, Chunsen & Zhang, Xiandong & Wang, Kai & Li, Huilin & Zhang, Sui & Zhong, Ming, 2024. "A hybrid framework for day-ahead electricity spot-price forecasting: A case study in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 373(C).
    2. Yuan, Ziyun & Chen, Lei & Liu, Gang & Li, Zukui & Wu, Yuchen & Pan, Yuanhao & Ji, Haoyang & Yang, Wen, 2024. "Soft sensor development for mixed oil interface tracking in multi-product pipelines based on knowledge-informed semi-supervised Variational Bayesian Gaussian mixture regression," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 300(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wu, Jiahui & Wang, Jidong & Kong, Xiangyu, 2022. "Strategic bidding in a competitive electricity market: An intelligent method using Multi-Agent Transfer Learning based on reinforcement learning," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 256(C).
    2. Li, Qirui & Yang, Zhifang & Yu, Juan & Li, Wenyuan, 2023. "Impacts of previous revenues on bidding strategies in electricity market: A quantitative analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 345(C).
    3. Ostadi, Bakhtiar & Motamedi Sedeh, Omid & Husseinzadeh Kashan, Ali, 2020. "Risk-based optimal bidding patterns in the deregulated power market using extended Markowitz model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    4. Alrobaian, Abdulrahman A. & Alsagri, Ali Sulaiman, 2023. "Multi-agent-based energy management for a fully electrified residential consumption," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 282(C).
    5. Xie, Haonan & Ahmad, Tanveer & Zhang, Dongdong & Goh, Hui Hwang & Wu, Thomas, 2024. "Community-based virtual power plants’ technology and circular economy models in the energy sector: A Techno-economy study," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    6. Min, C.G. & Kim, M.K. & Park, J.K. & Yoon, Y.T., 2013. "Game-theory-based generation maintenance scheduling in electricity markets," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 310-318.
    7. Wang, Benke & Li, Chunhua & Ban, Yongshuang & Zhao, Zeming & Wang, Zengxu, 2024. "A two-tier bidding model considering a multi-stage offer‑carbon joint incentive clearing mechanism for coupled electricity and carbon markets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 368(C).
    8. Guo, Hongye & Chen, Qixin & Shahidehpour, Mohammad & Xia, Qing & Kang, Chongqing, 2022. "Bidding behaviors of GENCOs under bounded rationality with renewable energy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 250(C).
    9. Marcelle Caroline Thimotheo de Brito & Amaro O. Pereira Junior & Mario Veiga Ferraz Pereira & Julio César Cahuano Simba & Sergio Granville, 2022. "Competitive Behavior of Hydroelectric Power Plants under Uncertainty in Spot Market," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(19), pages 1-22, October.
    10. Wang, Tianjing & Dong, Zhao Yang, 2024. "Adaptive personalized federated reinforcement learning for multiple-ESS optimal market dispatch strategy with electric vehicles and photovoltaic power generations," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 365(C).
    11. Shen Liu & Hongyan Liu, 2021. "Tagging Items Automatically Based on Both Content Information and Browsing Behaviors," INFORMS Journal on Computing, INFORMS, vol. 33(3), pages 882-897, July.
    12. Silva, Ana R. & Pousinho, H.M.I. & Estanqueiro, Ana, 2022. "A multistage stochastic approach for the optimal bidding of variable renewable energy in the day-ahead, intraday and balancing markets," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 258(C).
    13. Zhu, Junpeng & Lin, Boqiang, 2022. "Resource dependence, market-oriented reform, and industrial transformation: Empirical evidence from Chinese cities," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    14. Luo, Nanyu & Ji, Feng & Han, Yuting & He, Jinbo & Zhang, Xiaoya, 2024. "Fitting item response theory models using deep learning computational frameworks," OSF Preprints tjxab, Center for Open Science.
    15. Tan, Qinliang & Han, Jian & Liu, Yuan, 2023. "Examining the synergistic diffusion process of carbon capture and renewable energy generation technologies under market environment: A multi-agent simulation analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 282(C).
    16. Liu, Jie & Ye, Zifeng & Chen, Kun & Zhang, Panpan, 2024. "Variational Bayesian inference for bipartite mixed-membership stochastic block model with applications to collaborative filtering," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    17. Rubin, Ofir D. & Babcock, Bruce A., 2013. "The impact of expansion of wind power capacity and pricing methods on the efficiency of deregulated electricity markets," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 676-688.
    18. Zhang, Yang & Yang, Qingyu & Li, Donghe & An, Dou, 2022. "A reinforcement and imitation learning method for pricing strategy of electricity retailer with customers’ flexibility," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 323(C).
    19. Pang, Simian & Xu, Qingshan & Yang, Yongbiao & Cheng, Aoxue & Shi, Zhengkun & Shi, Yun, 2024. "Robust decomposition and tracking strategy for demand response enhanced virtual power plants," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 373(C).
    20. Llorca, Manuel & Rodriguez-Alvarez, Ana, 2024. "Economic, environmental, and energy equity convergence: Evidence of a multi-speed Europe?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:276:y:2023:i:c:s0360544223006801. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.