IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v239y2022ipds0360544221025846.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The impact of China's low-carbon transition on economy, society and energy in 2030 based on CO2 emissions drivers

Author

Listed:
  • Shi, Huiting
  • Chai, Jian
  • Lu, Quanying
  • Zheng, Jiali
  • Wang, Shouyang

Abstract

China has become the world's largest carbon dioxide emitter and energy consumer, with serious environmental problems. Therefore, low-carbon economy has become the best choice for its development. In this paper, the economy, society, energy and environment are taken into account to build a low-carbon economy system (LCE). It is used to analyze the drivers of CO2 emissions and impact of low-carbon transition in China. Bayesian network and scenario analysis are applied. The results show that the increase of per capita consumption expenditure, energy consumption per unit of GDP, energy consumption per capita and CO2 emissions per capita is the reason for the continuous growth of CO2 emissions; the improve of energy efficiency, CO2 emissions per unit of GDP and CO2 emissions per unit of energy consumption inhibits CO2 emissions. China's low-carbon development does not come at the expense of its economic growth. Actually, the low-carbon transition is accompanied by the growth of population, consumer spending, energy consumption and energy efficiency. Urbanization rate will be up to 75.70%–97.44%. Compared with 2017, energy efficiency increases by 4.51%; energy consumption per unit of GDP reduces by 0.4%. Transformation of energy subsystem is the key to a low-carbon road.

Suggested Citation

  • Shi, Huiting & Chai, Jian & Lu, Quanying & Zheng, Jiali & Wang, Shouyang, 2022. "The impact of China's low-carbon transition on economy, society and energy in 2030 based on CO2 emissions drivers," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PD).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:239:y:2022:i:pd:s0360544221025846
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2021.122336
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544221025846
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2021.122336?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yuan, Jia-Hai & Kang, Jian-Gang & Zhao, Chang-Hong & Hu, Zhao-Guang, 2008. "Energy consumption and economic growth: Evidence from China at both aggregated and disaggregated levels," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 3077-3094, November.
    2. Liu, Yaqin & Zhao, Guohao & Zhao, Yushan, 2016. "An analysis of Chinese provincial carbon dioxide emission efficiencies based on energy consumption structure," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 524-533.
    3. Pao, Hsiao-Tien & Tsai, Chung-Ming, 2010. "CO2 emissions, energy consumption and economic growth in BRIC countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(12), pages 7850-7860, December.
    4. Zhang, Xing-Ping & Cheng, Xiao-Mei, 2009. "Energy consumption, carbon emissions, and economic growth in China," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(10), pages 2706-2712, August.
    5. Zhifu Mi & Jing Meng & Dabo Guan & Yuli Shan & Malin Song & Yi-Ming Wei & Zhu Liu & Klaus Hubacek, 2017. "Chinese CO2 emission flows have reversed since the global financial crisis," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 8(1), pages 1-10, December.
    6. Hu, Zhaoguang & Yuan, Jiahai & Hu, Zheng, 2011. "Study on China's low carbon development in an Economy-Energy-Electricity-Environment framework," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 2596-2605, May.
    7. Alam, Shaista & Fatima, Ambreen & Butt, Muhammad S., 2007. "Sustainable development in Pakistan in the context of energy consumption demand and environmental degradation," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 825-837, October.
    8. Haroldo V. Ribeiro & Diego Rybski & Jürgen P. Kropp, 2019. "Effects of changing population or density on urban carbon dioxide emissions," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-9, December.
    9. Pao, Hsiao-Tien & Chen, Haipeng (Allan) & Li, Yi-Ying, 2015. "Competitive dynamics of energy, environment, and economy in the U.S," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 449-460.
    10. Lin, Boqiang & Lei, Xiaojing, 2015. "Carbon emissions reduction in China's food industry," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 483-492.
    11. Zheng, Jiali & Mi, Zhifu & Coffman, D'Maris & Milcheva, Stanimira & Shan, Yuli & Guan, Dabo & Wang, Shouyang, 2019. "Regional development and carbon emissions in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 25-36.
    12. Dou, Xiangsheng, 2013. "Low Carbon-Economy Development: China's Pattern and Policy Selection," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 1013-1020.
    13. Li, Jianglong & Sun, Chuanwang, 2018. "Towards a low carbon economy by removing fossil fuel subsidies?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 17-33.
    14. Nasir, Muhammad & Ur Rehman, Faiz, 2011. "Environmental Kuznets Curve for carbon emissions in Pakistan: An empirical investigation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1857-1864, March.
    15. Liu, Yaqin & Zhang, Jingchao & Zhu, Zhishuang & Zhao, Guohao, 2019. "Impacts of the 3E (economy, energy and environment) coordinated development on energy mix in China: The multi-objective optimisation perspective," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 56-64.
    16. Wang, Run & Liu, Wenjuan & Xiao, Lishan & Liu, Jian & Kao, William, 2011. "Path towards achieving of China's 2020 carbon emission reduction target--A discussion of low-carbon energy policies at province level," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 2740-2747, May.
    17. Guo, Pibin & Wang, Ting & Li, Dan & Zhou, Xijun, 2016. "How energy technology innovation affects transition of coal resource-based economy in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 1-6.
    18. Wang, Feng & Sun, Xiaoyu & Reiner, David M. & Wu, Min, 2020. "Changing trends of the elasticity of China's carbon emission intensity to industry structure and energy efficiency," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    19. Zhang, Yue-Jun & Peng, Hua-Rong & Su, Bin, 2017. "Energy rebound effect in China's Industry: An aggregate and disaggregate analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 199-208.
    20. Kuishuang Feng & Steven J. Davis & Laixiang Sun & Klaus Hubacek, 2015. "Drivers of the US CO2 emissions 1997–2013," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 6(1), pages 1-8, November.
    21. Zhi-Fu Mi & Yi-Ming Wei & Bing Wang & Jing Meng & Zhu Liu & Yuli Shan & Jingru Liu & Dabo Guan, 2017. "Socioeconomic impact assessment of China's CO2 emissions peak prior to 2030," CEEP-BIT Working Papers 103, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research (CEEP), Beijing Institute of Technology.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Liang Liu & Mengyue Li & Xiujuan Gong & Pan Jiang & Ruifeng Jin & Yuhan Zhang, 2022. "Influence Mechanism of Different Environmental Regulations on Carbon Emission Efficiency," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(20), pages 1-19, October.
    2. Zhou, Yiqi & Zou, Shan & Duan, Weili & Chen, Yaning & Takara, Kaoru & Di, Yanfeng, 2022. "Analysis of energy carbon emissions from agroecosystems in Tarim River Basin, China: A pathway to achieve carbon neutrality," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 325(C).
    3. Pan, Xiongfeng & Xu, Haitao & Feng, Shenghan, 2022. "The economic and environment impacts of energy intensity target constraint: Evidence from low carbon pilot cities in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 261(PA).
    4. Yang, Xilian & Zhao, Qunfei & Wang, Yuzhang & Cheng, Kanru, 2023. "Fault signal reconstruction for multi-sensors in gas turbine control systems based on prior knowledge from time series representation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(PA).
    5. Mehdi, Maryam & Ammari, Nabil & Alami Merrouni, Ahmed & El Gallassi, Hicham & Dahmani, Mohamed & Ghennioui, Abdellatif, 2023. "An experimental comparative analysis of different PV technologies performance including the influence of hot-arid climatic parameters: Toward a realistic yield assessment for desert locations," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 205(C), pages 695-716.
    6. Xu, Bin & Lin, Boqiang, 2023. "Assessing the green energy development in China and its carbon reduction effect: Using a quantile approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    7. Wang, Linhui & Chen, Qi & Dong, Zhiqing & Cheng, Lu, 2024. "The role of industrial intelligence in peaking carbon emissions in China," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
    8. Huo, Tengfei & Cong, Xiaobo & Cheng, Cong & Cai, Weiguang & Zuo, Jian, 2023. "What is the driving mechanism for the carbon emissions in the building sector? An integrated DEMATEL-ISM model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 274(C).
    9. Fangtian Wang & Hongfei Qu & Wei Tian & Shilei Zhai & Liqiang Ma, 2022. "Ethical Construction and Development of Mining Engineering Based on the Safe, Efficient, Green, and Low-Carbon Concept," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-14, October.
    10. Hui Liu & Jiwei Liu & Qun Li, 2022. "Asymmetric Effects of Economic Development, Agroforestry Development, Energy Consumption, and Population Size on CO 2 Emissions in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-34, June.
    11. Wang, Jianda & Dong, Kangyin & Dong, Xiucheng & Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad, 2022. "Assessing the digital economy and its carbon-mitigation effects: The case of China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    12. Li, Songran & Shao, Qinglong, 2022. "Greening the finance for climate mitigation: An ARDL–ECM approach," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 199(C), pages 1469-1481.
    13. Yang, Yi & Qin, Huan, 2024. "The uncertainties of the carbon peak and the temporal and regional heterogeneity of its driving factors in China," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    14. Li, Guohao & Chen, Xue & You, Xue-yi, 2023. "System dynamics prediction and development path optimization of regional carbon emissions: A case study of Tianjin," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    15. Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Appiah, Michael & Karim, Sitara & Yarovaya, Larisa, 2023. "What abates environmental efficiency in African economies? Exploring the influence of infrastructure, industrialization, and innovation," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 186(PB).
    16. Zhang, Wen-Yi & Chen, Yue & Wang, Yi & Xu, Yunjian, 2023. "Equilibrium analysis of a peer-to-peer energy trading market with shared energy storage in a power transmission grid," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 274(C).
    17. Mahdy, Ahmed & Hasanien, Hany M. & Turky, Rania A. & Abdel Aleem, Shady H.E., 2023. "Modeling and optimal operation of hybrid wave energy and PV system feeding supercharging stations based on golden jackal optimal control strategy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PD).
    18. Mansoor Ahmed & Wen Huan & Nafees Ali & Ahsan Shafi & Muhsan Ehsan & Kamal Abdelrahman & Anser Ali Khan & Saiq Shakeel Abbasi & Mohammed S. Fnais, 2023. "The Effect of Energy Consumption, Income, and Population Growth on CO 2 Emissions: Evidence from NARDL and Machine Learning Models," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(15), pages 1-19, August.
    19. Liyuan Fu & Qing Wang, 2022. "Spatial and Temporal Distribution and the Driving Factors of Carbon Emissions from Urban Production Energy Consumption," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(19), pages 1-29, September.
    20. Feng, Xinzhen & Du, Gang, 2023. "Does financial knowledge contribute to the upgrading of the resident's consumption?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PC).
    21. Han Wang & Yujie Jin & Xingming Hong & Fuan Tian & Jianxian Wu & Xin Nie, 2022. "Integrating IPAT and CLUMondo Models to Assess the Impact of Carbon Peak on Land Use," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-16, April.
    22. Zhao, Jing & Zhang, Qin & Zhou, Dequn, 2023. "Can marketed on-grid price drive the realization of energy transition in China’s power industry under the background of carbon neutrality?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 276(C).
    23. Li, Rui & Liu, Qiqi & Cai, Weiguang & Liu, Yuan & Yu, Yanhui & Zhang, Yihao, 2023. "Echelon peaking path of China's provincial building carbon emissions: Considering peak and time constraints," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 271(C).
    24. Igliński, Bartłomiej & Kiełkowska, Urszula & Pietrzak, Michał Bernard & Skrzatek, Mateusz & Kumar, Gopalakrishnan & Piechota, Grzegorz, 2023. "The regional energy transformation in the context of renewable energy sources potential," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 218(C).
    25. Zhu, Zhu & Liao, Qi & Liang, Yongtu & Qiu, Rui & Zhang, ZeZhou & Zhang, Haoran, 2022. "The era of renewables: Infrastructure disposal strategies under market decline of oil products," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 249(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sofien, Tiba & Omri, Anis, 2016. "Literature survey on the relationships between energy variables, environment and economic growth," MPRA Paper 82555, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 14 Sep 2016.
    2. Tiba, Sofien & Omri, Anis, 2017. "Literature survey on the relationships between energy, environment and economic growth," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 1129-1146.
    3. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Shafiullah, Muhammad & Khalid, Usman & Song, Malin, 2020. "A nonparametric analysis of energy environmental Kuznets Curve in Chinese Provinces," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    4. Wang, Chen & Engels, Anita & Wang, Zhaohua, 2018. "Overview of research on China's transition to low-carbon development: The role of cities, technologies, industries and the energy system," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 1350-1364.
    5. Nasreen, Samia & Anwar, Sofia & Ozturk, Ilhan, 2017. "Financial stability, energy consumption and environmental quality: Evidence from South Asian economies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 1105-1122.
    6. Le Hoang Phong, 2019. "Globalization, Financial Development, and Environmental Degradation in the Presence of Environmental Kuznets Curve: Evidence from ASEAN-5 Countries," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 9(2), pages 40-50.
    7. Kyoung-Min Lim & Seul-Ye Lim & Seung-Hoon Yoo, 2014. "Oil Consumption, CO 2 Emission, and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Philippines," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 6(2), pages 1-13, February.
    8. Muhammad, Anees & Ishfaq, Ahmed, 2011. "Industrial development, agricultural growth, urbanization and environmental Kuznets curve in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 33469, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Hye, Qazi Muhammad Adnan & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Leitão, Nuno Carlos, 2013. "Economic growth, energy consumption, financial development, international trade and CO2 emissions in Indonesia," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 109-121.
    10. Yanli Ji & Jie Xue, 2022. "Decoupling Effect of County Carbon Emissions and Economic Growth in China: Empirical Evidence from Jiangsu Province," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(6), pages 1-22, March.
    11. Mirza, Faisal Mehmood & Kanwal, Afra, 2017. "Energy consumption, carbon emissions and economic growth in Pakistan: Dynamic causality analysis," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 1233-1240.
    12. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Lean, Hooi Hooi & Shabbir, Muhammad Shahbaz, 2012. "Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis in Pakistan: Cointegration and Granger causality," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 2947-2953.
    13. Ahmad, Ashfaq & Zhao, Yuhuan & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Bano, Sadia & Zhang, Zhonghua & Wang, Song & Liu, Ya, 2016. "Carbon emissions, energy consumption and economic growth: An aggregate and disaggregate analysis of the Indian economy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 131-143.
    14. Yue‐Jun Zhang & Wei Shi & Lin Jiang, 2020. "Does China's carbon emissions trading policy improve the technology innovation of relevant enterprises?," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(3), pages 872-885, March.
    15. Muhammad, Shahbaz, 2012. "Multivariate granger causality between CO2 Emissions, energy intensity, financial development and economic growth: evidence from Portugal," MPRA Paper 37774, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 31 Mar 2012.
    16. Kais Saidi & Sami Hammami, 2016. "Economic growth, energy consumption and carbone dioxide emissions: recent evidence from panel data analysis for 58 countries," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 50(1), pages 361-383, January.
    17. Mohamed Arouri & Muhammad Shahbaz & Rattapon Onchang & Faridul Islam & Frédéric Teulon, 2014. "Environmental Kuznets Curve in Thailand: Cointegration and Causality Analysis," Working Papers 2014-204, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    18. Saida Daly & Mohamed Abdouli, 2023. "The Nexus between Environmental Quality, Economic Growth, and Trade Openness in Saudi Arabia (1990-2017)," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(4), pages 579-598, July.
    19. Ying Sun & Long Qian & Zhi Liu, 2022. "The carbon emissions level of China’s service industry: an analysis of characteristics and influencing factors," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 24(12), pages 13557-13582, December.
    20. Saboori, Behnaz & Sulaiman, Jamalludin, 2013. "Environmental degradation, economic growth and energy consumption: Evidence of the environmental Kuznets curve in Malaysia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 892-905.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:239:y:2022:i:pd:s0360544221025846. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.